We're down to the 2023 Women's World Cup final in Australia/New Zealand. Two of the top six sides in the world.
It's a pick 'em to win the title with both England and Spain at -110. So how could we bet on the final?
Odds as of August 17
2023 Women's World Cup Final: Who's Go The Edge?
According to oddsmakers, these are two evenly matched sides. And there's a lot of truth to that. We're looking at two of the best offensive sides in the tournament who get scoring from multiple outlets on the pitch.
These are two of the three best sides for possession. Spain is averaging 70% of possession while England is at 65%. They're also one and two for total shots on target in the tournament with Spain getting 45 shots on net to England's 36.
You might not find an easy edge to find when looking at the stat sheet for both squads.
I think the quality of competition matters a lot and that might be where you can find the right edge to handicap this game. Through the knockout stage, the average FIFA ranking for Spain's opponents was 11 compared to 32 for England.
The Spanish faced a much tougher test to get to the Finals than England did. So if you're finally paying attention to the Women's World Cup and want to place a futures bet, Spain might be the way to go.
Women's World Cup Final: Alternate bet
When it comes to the Final I'm not going to make a play on the moneyline or touch the futures market now. I'm going to be making a totals bet.
The line for the total is set at 2.5 goals. OVER 2.5 goals has +145 odds.
Spain has seen the total go over 2.5 goals in each of its games throughout the tournament. And most of that is their doing. They've averaged 2.8 goals per game at the World Cup. If they're simply average the total goes OVER. And that's not even considering England.
The English have scored 2.2 goals per game at this tournament and have seen OVER 2.5 goals in their last two games.
At +145, I'm betting the OVER here.
2023 Women's World Cup Groups
Group A: New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Switzerland
Group B: Australia, Canada, Ireland, Nigeria
Group C: Costa Rica, Japan, Spain, Zambia
Group D: China, Denmark, England, Haiti
Group E: Netherlands, Portugal, United States, Vietnam
Group F: Brazil, France, Jamaica, Panama
Group G: Argentina, Italy, South Africa, Sweden
Group H: Colombia, Germany, Morocco, South Korea
2023 Women's World Cup Group Winners and Runners-Up
Winners - Switzerland (1-2-0)
Runners-Up - Norway (1-1-1)
One of the weakest groups in the tournament yields an uninspiring group winner in Switzerland. Don't expect them to go past the Round of 16.
The home nation needed to beat Canada to not only make the Round of 16 but to win the group. With a 4-0 win over the Canucks they did both.
A masterclass in defending and counter-attacking pushes Japan to the top of a strong-ish Group C and into the Round of 16.
They've jumped up to become favorites thanks to their group play. England eased through the group winning all three matches and conceding only once.
United States (1-2-0)
The Dutch take the group as the US enters a new stage in their cycle. The US hasn't finished runners-up since 2015.
From crowd-funded to knockout stages. Jamaica is truly putting together a magical run at this tournament.
South Africa (1-1-1)
Sweden swept through this group and made it look easy. They picked up all nine points available and held a +8 goal differential.
I had thought Germany could go all the way in this tournament. Turns out they couldn't escape one of the weaker groups. Ouch.
List of Women's World Cup Winners
That's three finals appearances in the last three tournaments for the US. Their loss in 2011 to Japan needed extra time and a shootout. So they were this close (pretend you can see my thumb and index finger basically touching) to already having a three-peat.
No side has consistently dominated this sport as the Americans have.
Women's World Cup Golden Boot Winners
|1991 (China)||Michelle Akers||10|
|1995 (Sweden)||Ann Kristin Aarones||6|
|1999 (USA)||Sun Wein & Sissi||7|
|2003 (USA)||Brigit Prinz||7|
|2011 (Germany)||Homare Sawa||5|
|2015 (Canada)||Celia Sasic||6|
|2019 (France)||Megan Rapinoe||6|
After a flurry of goals in the opening iteration of this tournament back in 1991, goal scoring has stabilized. Akers put up an incredible 10 goals in 1991 to win the initial Women's World Cup Golden Boot, but now seven goals should win the title.
At the 2023 World Cup, we've got one player with five goals already, three with four and a bunch more at three. Though not all of them remain in the tournament.
Eugenie Le Sommer*
Sophie Roman Haug*
*Eliminated from tournament