Injury-riddled Monterrey faces tough task against Xolos de Tijuana

For Week 11 action of the 2018 Liga MX Apertura, Rayados and Xolos de Tijuana face off in a northern Mexican clash at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer.

Following a dreadful Clasico Regiomontano that ended scoreless, Monterrey is desperate for a win. In a matter of weeks, Rayados have gone from second in the league table to sixth. They have gone four straight games without a win and have looked but a shadow of themselves since beating Lobos BUAP back in Week 6. They’ll be facing a Xolos de Tijuana team that arrives to this match after having defeated Pachuca 1-0. The win was Tijuana’s third consecutive victory, which places them ninth in the league table with 15 points, just two points away from opponents Monterrey.

Monterrey vs Tijuana Game Center

Injuries and more injuries

It’s easy to start panicking if you are Monterrey. How is it that a team that was arguably one of the best across the first half of the season is now looking like an average mid-table team? Perhaps the easiest explanation is injuries. The Rayados are walking wounded at the moment, and just last week against rivals Tigres, Diego Alonso’s men lost two more players through injury.

Sometimes it just comes down to bad luck. For starters, star striker Rogelio Funes Mori is back but has been unable to play a full 90 minutes since his return from injury. Rayados is also dealing with the unfortunate news that Jonathan Urretaviscaya will be out for the season with a ruptured ACL. Then there are minor injuries to Aviles Hurtado, captain Jose Maria Basanta and Rodolfo Pizarro, all starters for Monterrey that I suspect will not play a part against Xolos de Tijuana in Week 11.

This is not a matchup that favors Monterrey

Though not officially a rivalry match, games between northern Mexican sides tend to be played with a different level of intensity. That has always been the case with Xolos de Tijuana when facing Monterrey. As a matter of fact, Tijuana’s recent record against the Rayados seems to suggest that the border side has found ways to get the best out of their Regio neighbors. Through the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams, Xolos de Tijuana has lost only once.

Coincidentally, the last time both of these teams met at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer was in last season’s quarterfinals. Tijuana earned a 2-1 win over Monterrey, eliminating the Rayados from title contention in the process. At the time, it was a huge upset, given that Monterrey arrived as the playoff’s first seed, while Tijuana sneaked into the playoffs in the very last game of the regular season.

The battle of Diegos may go to Cocca

The big irony going into this match is that while both managers are named Diego, they are polar opposites of each other. Monterrey’s Diego Alonso is more attack-minded, while Diego Cocca of Xolos de Tijuana is an avid fan of defense.

My best guess is that despite Monterrey’s willingness to push forward, it will be Tijuana’s defensive tactics that set the tempo of the match. In fact, Xolos de Tijuana have been money for UNDER bettors in recent weeks. You can say Tijuana’s tactics are too defensive and more often than not boring, but there is no denying they are effective. In terms of scoring, each one of Tijuana’s last four Liga MX matches have hit the UNDER, with the Fronterizos keeping a clean sheet in three of them.

My pick...

I don’t feel comfortable going with Monterrey at the moment. I am fairly confident they will bounce back at some point in this tournament, but Xolos de Tijuana should do just enough to edge it. The Fronterizos are nothing to write about, but they have a way of getting victories when they shouldn’t.