For a long time, the Premier League had been one of the toughest leagues to crack into the top tier because of the amount of money the top teams had available to buy the best players. Leicester City turned that trend on its head last year, winning the league with a 36.6-million-euro total salary compared to the top clubs that all boasted total salaries well over 100 million euros.
Online shop Sportsbook has released odds on teams to finish in the top four and top six and OddsShark has broken down some trends to see if there is any value to be had.
History is still on the side of the top clubs. Unfortunately, in the last 10 years, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal have finished in the top four teams, eight, six, eight and 10 times respectively. Arsenal is the only team that has finished in the top four every year since 2005-06.
Man City is expected to be the most improved squad in the league next year after the hiring of manager Pep Guardiola from Bayern Munich. The tactics of Manuel Pellegrini had grown old with the players and City faithful and Pep is a perpetual Sportsbook. Expect them to finish in the top three if they don't manage to win the league.
Only 11 teams have finished in the top six in the last 10 years. Here’s the breakdown of how many times the teams that are still in the Premier League have finished in the top four and top six since the 2005-06 season.
| Team | Top 4 Record | Top 6 Record |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 6/10 | 7/10 |
| Chelsea | 8/10 | 9/10 |
| Arsenal | 10/10 | 10/10 |
| Manchester United | 8/10 | 9/10 |
| Tottenham | 3/10 | 8/10 |
| Liverpool | 4/10 | 6/10 |
| Southampton | 0/10 | 1/10 |
| Everton | 0/10 | 5/10 |
| Leicester City | 1/10 | 1/10 |
Based on this table it appears there may be some value in Arsenal, even though they are -175 to finish inside the top four they seem like a lock. Leicester to finish inside the top 6 at +225 is a very juicy number as they have retained most of their Premier League winning squad.
Many believe Tottenham will land somewhere in the top four again this year after a season they finished just short of second place. Their core from the last campaign is still mostly intact and in many regards, improved. EVEN money for the Spurs to finish in the top four is one of my favorite bets on the board.
- Manchester City -750
- Manchester Utd -225
- Chelsea -200
- Arsenal -175
- Tottenham Hotspur EVEN
- Liverpool +150
- Leicester City +500
- Southampton +800
- West Ham Utd +800
- Everton +1400
- Stoke City +3300
- Swansea City +5000
- Crystal Palace +6600
- West Bromwich Albion +8000
- Bournemouth +10000
- Middlesbrough +10000
- Sunderland +10000
- Watford FC +10000
- Hull City +15000
- Burnley +20000
Odds as of July 19 at Sportsbook
- Manchester City -1200
- Manchester Utd -700
- Arsenal -600
- Chelsea -600
- Tottenham Hotspur -300
- Liverpool -225
- Leicester City +225
- West Ham Utd +275
- Everton +350
- Southampton +350
- Stoke City +1400
- Crystal Palace +2500
- Swansea City +2800
- Sunderland +3300
- Bournemouth +4000
- Middlesbrough +5000
- West Bromwich Albion +5000
- Watford FC +5000
- Burnley +6600
- Hull City +10000
Odds as of July 19 at Sportsbook
