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Valentin Castellanos leads all players in 2022 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Almost three-quarters of the 2022 MLS regular season is in the books with most teams having played 21 of 34 games. And while there are some teams running away in the standings, there isn’t a runaway favorite in the MLS Golden Boot odds.

New York City FC’s Valentin Castellanos is currently the favorite at +350, but Nashville SC’s Hany Mukhtar isn’t far behind at +500. FC Dallas’ Jesus Ferreira completes the top three at +600.

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2022 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds to Win 2022 MLS Golden Boot: Top 10
PlayerOdds
Valentin Castellanos+350
Hany Mukhtar+500
Jesus Ferreira+600
Sebastian Driussi+600
Taxiarchis Fountas+900
Jeremy Ebobisse+1000
Javier Hernandez+1200
Brandon Vazquez+2500
Carlos Vela+3300
Cristian Arango+3300

Odds as of July 22 at Bodog

Why Is Valentin Castellanos The 2022 MLS Golden Boot Odds-On Favorite?

It certainly helps to sit at the top of the MLS goals board with 13 goals in 16 games played. The NYCFC striker is currently on a four-game goal streak with six goals in that span. Castellanos’ NYCFC side is +1000 in the MLS Cup odds.

He might not be the most accurate shooter (41.6% shots on target) nor does he have the best conversion rate (16.9% shots converted to goals). But what he does do better than anyone else in the league is take higher-quality shots.

Castellanos leads all players in expected goals with 15.6. The next-best rate is Mukhtar’s 12.1 xG. There isn’t a player who takes more high-quality opportunities than Castellanos. A player like him doesn’t need a 20 percent conversion rate to be the league leader in goals when he’s getting this many quality chances.

It also helps to have won the award in the past. Castellanos won the MLS Golden Boot in 2021 with 19 goals on the year.

Find the best odds for a Valentin Castellanos bet at Bodog:

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Hany Mukhtar (+500)

He’s one goal behind Castellanos for the MLS goal-scoring lead with 12. Just like the NYCFC striker, Mukhtar can’t stop scoring. He’s on an impressive five-game goal streak, scoring six goals between June 25 and July 17.

Mukhtar’s conversion rate (14.6%) might be lower than Castellanos’, but consider that on this five-game goal streak, the Nashville striker is converting at a 23.1 percent rate. That’s a hell of a jump and it might not be sustainable, but even if Mukhtar regresses to his 15.8 percent average from the past two seasons, he’s putting himself in the conversation.

He has closed the gap between himself and Castellanos on the scoring chart, and with his current run of form, he could very well take the 2022 MLS Golden Boot.

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Taxiarchis Fountas (+900)

The DC United man is only three goals back of Castellanos. But Fountas has played four fewer games than the NYCFC striker.

Fountas’ shot conversion (19.2%) is above Castellanos’ 16.9 percent as is his goals/90 at 1.01 to Castellanos’ 0.83.

At +900, a $100 wager on Fountas to win the 2022 MLS Golden Boot returns a $900 profit.

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