MLS Golden Boot Odds: Daniel Gazdag Is A Great Value Bet

The MLS Golden Boots odds board is bursting with value. Real Salt Lake's Cristian Arango has the best chance to win the MLS's top goal scorer title with +200 odds while challenger Christian Benteke is at +300.

Arango and Benteke are good shouts to win the MLS Golden Boot, but I'll make the case for a few players with more value, like Philadelphia's Daniel Gazdag.

2024 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of July 25

MLS Golden Boot Odds Favorite: Cristian Arango

Arango has the most goals in the league with 17, one more than DC United's Christian Benteke and LAFC's Denis Bouanga. And while Arango still has a game to serve on his four-game suspension, he won't miss any more regular season games. His ban will be served after missing RSL's Leagues Cup game on August 1.

We've seen Arango finish a season strongly. In 2022, then playing for LAFC, Arango scored seven goals in his final 12 regular season games. A goal every 154 minutes.

Arango is converting shots on target to goals at a sustainable 43% and is seeing plenty of the ball in the attacking penalty area with 125 touches (sixth most in the league).

In a tight Western Conference, there's no room for Salt Lake and Arango to take their foot off the gas. RSL might be five points behind the LA Galaxy but if Arango keeps scoring his club might just be able to bridge that gap and steal the top spot in the West.

MLS Golden Boot Value Bets

Want more value in this market? Great. Here are three value bets for those trying to find that outside-of-the-box bet.

Denis Bouanga (LAFC)

The reigning Golden Boot winner has been in an incredible run of form. Since mid-May, Bouanga has scored 10 goals in 12 games. He's now bridged the gap at the top of the goal-scoring table to a single goal. Can he overtake Arango and win his second Golden Boot in a row?

Why not? We saw him end the 2023 season in incredible goal-scoring form with six goals in his final three games. 

And look at some of his underlying numbers this year. Bouanga leads the league in touches in the attacking penalty area at 197. That's a wild 49 more than the next-best player. He also leads the league with carries into the penalty area with 78. That's 16 more than the next-best player.

If LAFC won't give Bouanga the ball in a dangerous area he'll carry the ball in himself and score!

Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)

Coming back fresh from the Copa America, Suarez can pick up where he left off with a ridiculous 12 goals on 36 shots (33%) and the best shot-on-target rate in the league at 72%. Suarez isn't a volume shooter but he doesn't need to. With that 30% conversion rate, Suarez needs only to get the ball in the right area and pick the right time to shoot.

And with 33.5 xAG, Inter Miami is the second-best team at putting the ball "in the right area". Suarez is playing on the right team to keep up his crazy scoring rate.

Daniel Gazdag (Philadelphia Union)

The Union forward is fourth in the league in goals at 14 goals but his odds are the eighth-highest at +2000. 

I get that Gazdag doesn't have glowing underlying numbers. His touches in the penalty area are low, as are the number of shots he has taken and his carries into the penalty area. But he's still carving out the fourth-most xG at 13.0. Arango and Benteke are at 13.2 xG. 

Gazdag might be three goals back of Arango for the league lead, but a hat-trick against Nashville in his last league game shows he can close that gap easily. 

MLS Golden Boot Leaderboard

Below you'll find a table of the top 5 MLS goal-scoring leaders. 

Last updated July 25

MLS Golden Boot - Last 10 Winners

Bradley Wright-Phillips, the former Manchester City player, is the only two-time MLS top goal scorer. The Englishman had a heck of an MLS career, scoring 117 goals across 234 career appearances for a conversion rate of a goal every other game. Excellent.