MLS Cup Odds - Real Salt Lake

MLS Golden Boot Odds: Copa Gives Arango's Chances Big Boost

Goals are what everyone comes to see. Our MLS Golden Boot odds will help handicappers decide who ends the MLS season with the most goals in the league. 

Messi is the favorite, and we all understand why, but Messi is going to miss time as he reports for Argentina duty at the Copa America. In fact, I'll wager that will have a big impact on the goal-scoring race.

2024 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds to Win 2024 MLS Golden Boot
Lionel MessiInter Miami+210
Luis SuarezInter Miami+300
Cristian ArangoReal Salt Lake+550
Denis BouangaLAFC+1200
Christian BentekeDC United+1400
Dejan JoveljicLA Galaxy+1600
Georgios GiakoumakosAtlanta United+1800
Lewis MorganNY Red Bulls+2000

Odds as of May 22

MLS Golden Boot Odds Favorite: Lionel Messi

The GOAT is doing the thing. Messi has goals in seven of his 10 games. This is the type of play we all saw in the Leagues Cup last year but not so much in the MLS in 2023 with one goal in six games.

And look, he could be better. I know that sounds insane, but it's true. His SOT% (43.5) so he's wasting more than half of the shots he takes. And his goals per shot on target (45%) is 26th for any player who's played at least 9.5 games this year. 

Look, Messi is dominating but to think he could probably be better is frightening. You know what? Just give the MLS Golden Boot to him already. We've got a lot of season left, but he's just so much better than the field.

PS: With Messi and Suarez (more on him in a second) scoring at will. The OVER seems like an easy play for Miami games. The total has gone OVER 2.5 goals 12 times in 15 games (80%). 

MLS Golden Boot Value Picks: Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)

Spare a thought for Luis Suarez whose odds present a ton of value. He's already scored 4.0 goals above expected to begin the year. If Miami's Urugaying striker can stay healthy for a full season he's going to finish near the top of the scoring table. There's no doubt of this. 

Remember, he's won the Golden Boot in three different countries over his trophy-laden career:

  • Eredivisie (Netherlands) 2009-10 35 in 33
  • EPL (England) 2013-14 31 in 33
  • La Liga (Spain) 2015-16 40 in 35

He's got the pedigree and the early results to give him more than a 13% chance according to the implied odds. That's value, my friends. 

Cristian Arango (Real Salt Lake)

He leads the league in scoring with 13 twin ticklers. Not to mention, netting 5.7 goals above expected will always be grounds for including someone in the discussion for the Golden Boot.

Arango's appeal goes beyond his obvious individual qualities. His team is doing a great job of putting the ball into goal-scoring areas. Real Salt Lake's 505 passes into the final third are fourth in the league. Only Columbus, LA Galaxy and Inter Miami are better

With that kind of service and Arango's clinical finish, it's a match made in heaven for the Golden Boot.

Now consider that Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez (Arango's two direct competitors for the Golden Boot) should be away from the MLA at the Copa America this summer. Of course, there's a slim chance that Arango himself represents Columbia but he's only represented his country twice. 

The Copa runs from June 20 to July 14. Argentina has gone to the Finals five times in the past seven tournaments, meaning Messi could be gone for the entire Copa. He could miss 4-5 games on the season. That's a BIG advantage for Arango in the Golden Boot race this year.

MLS Golden Boot Tracker

Below is the table for MLS scoring leaders for the 2024 MLS season.

Current MLS Scoring Leaders
Player (Team)Goals
Cristian Arango (Real Salt Lake)13
Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)11
Christian Benteke (D.C. United)11
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)10
Lewis Morgan (NY Red Bulls)9
Daniel Gazdag (Philadelphia Union)9

MLS Golden Boot - Last 10 Winners

Odds to Win 2023 MLS Golden Boot: Top 10
YearPlayerNumber of Goals
2014Bradley Wright-Philips27
2015Sebastian Giovinco & Kei Kamara22
2016Bradley Wright-Philips24
2017Nemanja Nikolic24
2018Josef Martinez31
2019Carlos Vela31
2020Diego Rossi14
2021Valentin Castellanos19
2022Hany Mukhtar23
2023Denis Bouanga20

Bradley Wright-Phillips, the former Manchester City player, is the only two-time MLS top goal scorer. The Englishman had a heck of an MLS career, scoring 117 goals across 234 career appearances for a conversion rate of a goal every other game. Excellent.

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