MLS Golden Boot Odds

MLS Golden Boot Odds: Luis Suarez Holds A Ton Of Value Here

Goals are what everyone comes to see. Our MLS Golden Boot odds will tell handicap who ends the MLS season with the most goals in the league. 

Messi is the favorite, and we all understand why, but don't forget about Suarez.

2024 MLS Golden Boot Odds

Odds to Win 2024 MLS Golden Boot
PlayerTeamOdds
Lionel MessiInter Miami+225
Giorgos GiakoumakisAtlanta United+330
Luis SuarezInter Miami+700
Christian BentekeD.C. United+1000
Juan Camilo CuchoColumbus Crew+1200
Denis BouangaLAFC+1400
Teemu PukkiMinnesota United+1600
Antony Alves SantosPortland Timbers+2000

Odds as of March 21

MLS Golden Boot Odds: Lionel Messi

The Goat is only a season removed from scoring 16 goals in 21 Ligue 1 games. If he can score at that rate in the top league in France who says he can't win the scoring race in the lower-calibre American league?

He only scored once in the league (in six games) last year. But add his 10 goals in seven Leagues Cup games and his scoring rate was 0.85 goals per game (11 goals in 13 games). That 0.85 goals per game is a 29-goal pace over a full 34-game MLS season. More than enough to win the title.

MLS Golden Boot Value Picks

Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)

Spare a thought for Luis Suarez whose odds present a ton of value. He's already scored 2.27 goals above expected to begin the year. If Miami's Urugaying striker can stay healthy for a full season he should win this scoring race. 

Remember, he's won the Golden Boot in three different countries over his trophy-laden career:

  • Eredivisie (Netherlands) 2009-10 35 in 33
  • EPL (England) 2013-14 31 in 33
  • La Liga (Spain) 2015-16 40 in 35

He's got the pedigree and the early results to give him more than a 13% chance according to the implied odds. That's value, my friends. 

Giorgos Giakoumakis (Atlanta United)

The Greek international had a great 2023 season with 17 goals in 21 starts. He was three goals short of winning it last season, and his aim this year is to fix that by winning the Golden Boot in 2024.

He's already won Golden Boot honors in the Netherlands with 26 goals in the 20-21 Eredivisie and another one the following year in Scotland with 13 goals for Celtic. 

With four goals to his name already this year, he co-leads the MLS for goals already.

Hany Mukhtar (Nashville)

Not listed on our odds board is Nashville's Hany Mukhtar. The former Golden Boot winner isn't on the scoresheet yet. But that doesn't mean we should count him out.

Last season the German international went on an incredible run where he scored 13 goals in 13 games with three hat-tricks. 

He's got the ability to turn it on and be an elite goal-scorer in this league. 

MLS Golden Boot Tracker

Below is the table for MLS scoring leaders as well as their cumulative xG so you can see who's overperforming and who's underperforming. 

Current MLS Scoring Leaders
Player (Team)GoalsxG
Giorgos Giomakis (Atlanta)42.57
Dejan Jovelic (LA Galaxy)45.06
Luis Suarez (Inter Miami)41.73
Antony (Portland)30.83
Christian Benteke (D.C)32.76
Messi (Inter Miami)31.82

MLS Golden Boot - Last 10 Winners

Odds to Win 2023 MLS Golden Boot: Top 10
YearPlayerNumber of Goals
2014Bradley Wright-Philips27
2015Sebastian Giovinco & Kei Kamara22
2016Bradley Wright-Philips24
2017Nemanja Nikolic24
2018Josef Martinez31
2019Carlos Vela31
2020Diego Rossi14
2021Valentin Castellanos19
2022Hany Mukhtar23
2023Denis Bouanga20

Bradley Wright-Phillips, the former Manchester City player, is the only two-time MLS top goal scorer. The Englishman had a heck of an MLS career, scoring 117 goals across 234 career appearances for a conversion rate of a goal every other game. Excellent.

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