2022 World Cup: How Canada Can Make Group Of 16

It’s been awhile since Canada was at the World Cup. Thirty-six years, to be precise. But now that the Canadians are back, they don’t want to be just a footnote in the 2022 World Cup.

They want to make an impact, a statement. Getting out of the group stage, something Canada wasn’t able to do in their only World Cup appearance 36 years ago, would be massive.

So how can Canada qualify for the Group of 16 from Group F? First, let’s look at the odds here.

If you’re looking for more 2022 World Cup betting resources or odds, check out our World Cup odds and futures page or our soccer betting hub.

World Cup Group F Odds: To Win Outright

Odds as of November 24 at Sportsbook

World Cup Group F Odds: Odds To Advance From Group Stage

Odds as of November 24 at Sportsbook

World Cup: How Can Canada Make Group of 16?

Going into their Sportsbook match with Belgium, Canada was the heavy underdog. Their odds to win were +1050, representing 8.7 percent implied odds. A draw was at +475, for implied odds of 17.39 percent. Canada was supposed to lose this match at -400. And lose they did.

World Cup Canada Game 1 Sportsbook Odds vs Belgium

Canada eventually did fall 1-0 to Belgium thanks to a clinical finish from Michy Batshuayi in the 44th minute. Talent is what won Belgium that match, with a moment of brilliance giving them those three points. But the Belgians were lucky. That’s right, the second-best side in the world was lucky to get three points over the 41st-ranked side in the world. 

The Canucks were the better team on the pitch with 75 percent of the expected goals. They didn’t sit back and try to hit Les Diables Rouges on the break. They took the game to Belgium and should have come away from it with at least a point.

If that’s how John Herdman’s side plays through this World Cup, they could very well push to the Round of 16. Here’s how.

World Cup Canada Game 2 vs Croatia

Canada enters this game against Croatia needing at least one point. Based on how they played against Belgium, you’d think they could get it. Oddsmakers give Croatia a 47 percent chance to win and Canada a 29 percent chance. They don’t have faith that Canada can get it done.

And look, I kind of get it: Croatia is ranked 12th in the FIFA rankings while Canada is 41st. Croatia also went all the way to the 2018 World Cup final while Canada ... well, we all know how little World Cup experience they have.

But no one cares about the past if the present looks this good. 

Croatia looked pedestrian at best against Morocco. Holding 64 percent of possession, Croatia managed fewer shot attempts and few shots on target. Given the way that Canada pushed around Belgium for a full 90 minutes, we have to rethink these odds. 

Against Morocco, the Croatians generated 0.5 xG, with 60 percent of that coming at the hands of Nikola Vlasic. Close him down and that’s it for Croatia. 

No one player had more than 33 percent of Canada’s xG in their game against Belgium. And that was Jonathan David with a flat 1.0 xG. Four other players put up at least six percent of Canada’s xG totals against the second-best side in the world. The Canadians spread the wealth. That could be too much for Croatia.

World Cup Canada Game 3 vs Morocco

The Sportsbook odds for this game were not available when this piece was written, but we all know with Canada’s Sportsbook odds to win the group being +1400 and their odds to simply qualify at +275 (65 points lower than Morocco), the Canucks were the underdog in this matchup.

As it stands now, after Canada lost and Morocco drew 0-0 with Croatia, the Canadians are still the underdogs at +185. But the lines are pretty close with the Moroccans only sitting at +145 to win.

The plan for Canada has to be the same. Press, press, press. It nearly worked against Belgium, it could very well work against Croatia, and it could very well work against the Moroccans. 

This is Canada’s best shot at three points. The oddsmakers feel that too. You should get in on it to make $185 in profit on a winning $100 bet.