Bryce Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) will have his hands full at UFC 288 when he takes on Movsar Evloev (16-0, 6-0 UFC). The three-round featherweight fight takes place on the main card May 6, and Evloev is favored at -275.
The pay-per-view event is headlined by Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo, while Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad will duke it out in the co-main.
UFC 288: Mitchell vs Evloev Odds
Odds as of April 25
Our odds calculator gives Mitchell a 32.79 percent chance to win, and a $10 bet on the American pays out $30.50. Evloev, the favorite, gets a 73.33 implied win percentage, and a $10 bet on him pays out $13.64.
UFC 288: Mitchell vs Evloev Preview
Is this another one-sided tilt for Mitchell?
How Evloev Wins
While he's yet to record a finish through six UFC fights, the Russian is a lean-muscle machine at 145 pounds. He'll need to crank Mitchell with strikes before this bout inevitably hits the mat.
Movsar is aggressive, not unlike Ilia Topuria who flattened Mitchell at UFC 282, and that'll be great for him to impose his will and keep the American going backward. Evloev's best bet from there is to secure a takedown and maintain top position. Thanks to great jiu-jitsu, Mitchell is comfy on his back. I imagine this fight will go the distance, so Evloev needs to rack up damage without tipping himself into a submission.
How Mitchell Wins
"Thug Nasty" needs to engage the wrestling immediately — like in the first five seconds. Whether it's with him on the top or bottom, Mitchell needs to start wrestling to duck Evloev's heavy hands. It took the 28-year-old fan too long to activate his strengths at UFC 282 and he paid dearly for it, getting knocked down and then losing by submission.
If Mitchell neutralizes Evloev's power, he can win.
Mitchell vs Evloev Betting Pick
I'm less bullish on Mitchell after he got steamrolled at UFC 282. That's not to say he can't find his way again, but Evloev is undefeated and hungry for his next victim. I'll take the Russian to win by decision and the fight to go the distance.