UFC lightweight veterans Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green will turn back the clock on the UFC 291 main card this Saturday.
The odds don't favor "El Cucuy." Green is the -350 favorite over Ferguson (+275).
Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tony Ferguson | +275 |
| Bobby Green | -350 |
Odds as of July 25
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Green at -350 (77.78% implied chance) pays out $128.57. The same $100 on Ferguson's +275 odds (26.67% implied chance) pays out $375.
UFC 291 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Lightweight (BMF Title) – Dustin Poirier (-150) vs Justin Gaethje (+125)
- Light Heavyweight – Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs Alex Pereira (+100)
- Welterweight – Stephen Thompson (-170) vs Michel Pereira (+140)
- Lightweight – Tony Ferguson (+275) vs Bobby Green (-350)
- Welterweight – Michael Chiesa (+125) vs Kevin Holland (-150)
- Prelims
- Welterweight – Trevin Giles (+260) vs Gabriel Bonfim (-315)
- Heavyweight – Derrick Lewis (+150) Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-175)
- Middleweight – Roman Kopylov (-250) vs Claudio Ribeiro (+200)
- Welterweight – Jake Matthews (-334) vs Darrius Flowers (+250)
- Flyweight – CJ Vergara (-170) vs Vinicius Salvador (+140)
- Welterweight – Matthew Semelsberger (-188) vs Uros Medic (+162)
- Women's Flyweight – Miranda Maverick (-350) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+275)
Odds as of July 24
- Date/Time: July 29, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
- Arena: Delta Center
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Ferguson vs Green Betting Preview: What Does Tony Have Left?
Tony Ferguson fans realizing that it’s Tony Ferguson fight week: pic.twitter.com/iC1g2q0JIc
— Out Of Context MMA (@oocmma) July 24, 2023
Listen, Ferguson has performed horrendously over his last five (all losses, three stoppages), but is he really so bad he warrants +275 odds and a 26.67% win probability vs Green? That's pretty sad. Let's see.
How Ferguson Wins
Tony needs the lead the dance — it's the only way he gets ahead before his body crumbles. Ferguson knocked down Michael Chandler at UFC 274 by crossing him up early with stance switches, elbow feints and ultimately a sharp one-two.
Now that fight vs Chandler ended in an ambulance ride, but there were shreds (micro-fibers, maybe) of the old Tony in that bout. He hovered in tight, bit down on his mouthpiece and threw back.
I think Tony can win this fight with his awkward striking style. He must keep moving, though, because if Green lines him up, Ferguson will wind up checking back into the Shadow Realm hotel.
How Green Wins
Green has plenty of bite as a striker. He's fast and hits real hard, while also maintaining a strong wrestling base. In many ways, he's well-equipped to sock Ferguson's chin.
I imagine most folks will bet Green by KO, and I like that wager. Since the 36-year-old's punches often arrive first, Green thrives when he throws at the same time as his opponent.
My biggest concern with Green is the cardio. He faded quickly in his bout vs Drew Dober at UFC Vegas 66, and Dober folded him with a left cross. Tony doesn't possess the same power, but he might beat Green at the cardio game.
Ferguson vs Green Pick
I really, really wanted to bet on Tony for this one — and I would if this were a five-round bout. But Green has way more upside in this fight. His hands are quicker and he hits way harder than Tony.
Maybe Ferguson can confuse Green, but I'd say it's far more likely "King" squares up his opponent and gets his hand raised. After that, Ferguson could easily (hopefully?) leave his gloves in the Octagon.
