The UFC is in the midst of a hot stretch of exciting events, and this upcoming Fight Night only adds to the list.
Jessica Andrade (24-9, 15-7 UFC) is set to take on rising star Erin Blanchfield (10-1, 4-0 UFC) in a women’s flyweight bout on February 18. The five-round main event occurs at the Apex in Las Vegas, with prelim fights beginning at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starting at 8 p.m.
This matchup endured a wild last-minute swap. After Blanchfield’s original opponent, Taila Santos, pulled out of the fight, Andrade stepped up on a week’s notice for this women’s flyweight battle.
Andrade, a future UFC Hall of Famer, is a very tough test for Blanchfield. That said, the line has moved in the youngster's favor. Andrade opened as a -175 favorite, but she's now down to just -138.
Andrade vs Blanchfield Odds & Betting Notes
Andrade will carry chalk status for her third straight fight. Coming off a three-round beating of Lauren Murphy at UFC 281 just a few weeks ago, “Bate Estaca” is looking as sharp as ever, and hard-core and casual fans can easily recognize how hot Andrade is right now.
Like most rising prospects, Blanchfield has been chalked in her first few UFC fights. The 23-year-old delivered as a -400 favorite vs Molly McCann at UFC 281, crushing the Brit with a vicious submission in Round 1. Now, “Cold Blooded” gets the underdog treatment in a fierce five-round test vs one of the most explosive female fighters of all time.
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UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield Odds
The Andrade vs Blanchfield odds are in – Andrade is the -138 favorite, while Blanchfield comes in as the +110 underdog.
The tightest odds of the card can be found on the main card in a light heavyweight bout between William Knight (-125) and Marcin Prachnio (+100).
Lina Lansberg (+380) is the biggest underdog of the evening in her women’s bantamweight fight vs Mayra Bueno Silva (-500).
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Women’s Flyweight – Jessica Andrade (-138) vs Erin Blanchfield (+110)
- Light Heavyweight – Jordan Wright (+225) vs Zac Pauga (-275)
- Heavyweight – Jamal Pogues (-250) vs Josh Parisian (+200)
- Light Heavyweight – William Knight (-125) vs Marcin Prachnio (+100)
- Lightweight – Jim Miller (+187) vs Alexander Hernandez (-225)
- Prelims
- Women’s Bantamweight – Lina Lansberg (+380) vs Mayra Bueno Silva (-500)
- Featherweight – Jamall Emmers (+110) vs Khusein Askhabov (-138)
- Light Heavyweight – Ovince Saint Preux (+175) vs Philipe Lins (-210)
- Lightweight – Nazim Sadykhov (-188) vs Evan Elder (+162)
- Welterweight – AJ Fletcher (-275) vs Themba Gorimbo (+225)
- Flyweight – Clayton Carpenter (-334) vs Juancamilo Ronderos (+250)
Odds as of February 17
- Date/Time: February 18, 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider
Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield Odds & Picks
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jessica Andrade | -138 |
| Erin Blanchfield | +110 |
Our odds calculator tells us Andrade’s -138 status represents an implied win probability of 57.98 percent, meaning a $10 bet pays out $17.25. Blanchfield’s +110 status gives her an implied win probability of 47.62 percent, which means a $10 bet pays out $21.
- Blanchfield is a sniper when she shoots, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes at a 68 percent clip. Those are very good grappling numbers — the American wins this bout if she keeps it on the mat. It’s a futile effort to try to strike with Andrade, so she needs to smother the Brazilian the way Valentina Shevchenko did at UFC 261. The blueprint for victory involves shooting a takedown under Andrade’s strikes, passing her guard and either holding her down or trying for a choke from top position.
- Since Andrade is such a finisher, there’s a notion this fight goes UNDER 3.5 rounds (-170). Andrade is chalked because she can knock anyone out, and I’d assume the threat of a Blanchfield submission finish moves the needle here, too. With the value where it’s at right now, though, I’d take the OVER 3.5 rounds (+130). Blanchfield is a very good fighter – I think she’ll dictate the pace in this bout by slowing things down and using her wrestling/cardio advantages.
- Cold Blooded’s last three fights have come against McCann (win – submission), JJ Aldrich (win – submission) and Miranda Maverick (win – unanimous decision).
- Blanchfield will be scared of Andrade’s striking, and rightfully so. The five-foot-one Brazilian has lead hands but can be vulnerable to takedowns on occasion. With that in mind, Andrade’s performance on bottom position will dictate her fate in this fight. She’ll need to fight like hell to keep her guard up, scoot to the fence and stand up. If not, Blanchfield will sink in a choke and the lights will go out.
- One of the deadliest finishers in UFC women’s history, Andrade has been part of a stoppage in seven of her last nine fights. Of those nine fights, five have finished UNDER 1.5 rounds. Andrade is a menace, but I just can’t see Blanchfield being put out early. The kid is a future champion, and I think she drags this fight out beyond 3.5 rounds (+130).
- Andrade’s last three fights have come against Murphy (win – unanimous decision), Amanda Lemos (win – submission) and Cynthia Calvillo (win – knockout).
Pick: Blanchfield to win (+110); OVER 3.5 Rounds (+130); Dart Throw on Blanchfield Inside the distance (+300)
Zac Pauga vs Jordan Wright Odds & Picks
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zac Pauga | -275 |
| Jordan Wright | +225 |
There will be fireworks in the co-main event as Ultimate Fighter finalist Zac Pauga (5-1, 0-1 UFC) takes on Jordan Wright (12-4, 2-4 UFC) at light heavyweight.
- Love him or hate him (he’s probably cost you money), Wright starts quickly. “The Beverly Hills Ninja” is chaotic, explosive and conducive to early stoppages. He’s one of those fighters who is entertaining but might have more success if he fought smarter. The 31-year-old loves to burn out early as he desperately seeks a finish with heavy punches, elbows and flying knees. Because of his full-speed approach, Wright is often clubbed by counters and put out cold. There’s a strong chance his three-fight losing streak turns into a four-spot after Saturday.
- All six of Wright’s fights have ended inside the distance. On top of that, four of six have stopped before the second round. With the 31-year-old jumping to 205 pounds, I imagine he’ll have a speed advantage over Pauga, who’s coming down from heavyweight. Still, Pauga is a shifty guy – a quick check-left hook resulted in his only UFC loss. My gut is telling me to bet OVER 1.5 rounds (+135), and I’ll explain more in a minute.
- Wright’s last three fights came against Dusko Todorovic (loss – knockout), Marc-Andre Barriault (loss – submission) and Bruno Silva (loss – knockout).
- Pauga started training in mixed martial arts just a few years ago and is already in the UFC. After watching his bout vs Mo Usman, it’s clear the American is a thoughtful fighter. He’s methodical, shifty and picks his shots wisely. We will see how he looks after the weight cut to 205 pounds, but there’s a way Pauga wins this fight by evading Wright’s pressure and counterpunching for a victory.
- The rounds total is the real fun factor in this fight. With Pauga chalked at -275, there’s more value to be found on taking either the OVER 1.5 (+135) or the UNDER 1.5 (-175). Usually, I lean in favor of violence, but I like the OVER 1.5 in this fight. It’s in Pauga’s best interest to use his athleticism to grind this fight out. He has a rugby background, so expect some clinches and maybe a transition into ground and pound. There could still be a knockout – just expect it later than halfway through the second round.
- “The Ripper” lost his UFC debut by knockout. Before that, he won by knockout and unanimous decision, respectively, on the Ultimate Fighter Season 30.
Pick: Pauga by KO/TKO/SUB (-150); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+135); Dart Throw on Pauga to win in Round 2 (+450)
Josh Parisian vs Jamal Pogues Odds & Picks
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Parisian | +200 |
| Jamal Pogues | -250 |
A heavyweight fight between Josh Parisian (15-5, 2-2 UFC) and Jamal Pogues (9-3, making UFC debut) takes place on the main card.
- Parisian isn’t the most intelligent fighter. He’s aggressive – and active – but his knack for throwing fists of fury can work against him. Against Alan Baudot at UFC Vegas 57, the 33-year-old got a little too cheeky with his spinning strikes and walked into a massive hammerfist. After Parisian tumbled to the canvas, he flipped the momentum, mauling Baudot into a second-round victory. If Parisian sticks to his game plan vs Pogues (gliding in close, staying active and relying on his heavy chin), there’s a good chance he wins. Any grappling scrambles would also benefit Parisian.
- Parisian’s last four fights have gone OVER 1.5 rounds, and this fight should follow a similar trajectory. As the more experienced fighter, Parisian will be wise to neutralize Pogues’ power through clinch exchanges or straight-up takedowns to keep “The Stormtrooper” guessing. I could see this fight going the distance (-120), though, as not to be greedy, OVER 2.5 rounds (-145) should do the trick.
- The West Virginia native’s last three fights were against Baudot (win –knockout), Don’Tale Mayes (loss – knockout) and Roque Martinez (win – split decision).
- I’m not very convinced that Pogues is talented. At the same time, Parisian isn’t a clinical fighter either. So, how do we make money? I would fade Pogues, who is an undeserving -250 favorite. The 27-year-old threw soft “potshot” punches during his Contender Series debut and, while he controlled the fight, he never sought a finish. At heavyweight, that strategy will take you nowhere. I’ll be betting against him Saturday.
- Unless Pogues radically transformed his fighting style in the last few months, this bout should go the distance (-120). I’m sure he possesses power, but I have doubts about how brave he is on his entries. Also, if there’s a lot of wrestling, that’s great for the OVER. I’m expecting a sloppy 15-minute fight.
- Pogues will make his UFC debut Saturday. He won his only fight on the Contender Series by unanimous decision.
