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Blaydes vs Lewis Odds & Predictions: Pair of Top-Five Heavyweights Collide

Curtis Blaydes (left) is favored over Derrick Lewis (right) in the UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis odds.

Business is about to pick up one week after UFC 258 as heavyweight title contenders Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis look to inch closer to UFC gold. The two were supposed to link up in late November, but Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19, scuttling the match. UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis now takes place on February 20.

Looking at the Blaydes vs Lewis odds, it is the wrestling-heavy Blaydes who is the large favorite while the hard-hitting fan favorite Lewis comes back as an underdog. We have the full UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis odds and predictions below.

The only man to beat Blaydes is Francis Ngannou, who is fighting for the heavyweight title in late March. “Razor” has rattled off four wins in a row since last meeting Ngannou in November 2018.

After fighting for the belt in November 2018, Lewis stumbled once again before putting together three wins in a row, including a second-round knockout win in his last outing in August vs Aleksei Oleinik.

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis odds with Blaydes coming in as a huge -450 favorite and Lewis listed as a +325 underdog. This means you would have to wager $450 to profit $100 on a Blaydes victory while a $100 bet on a Lewis win would profit you $325.

Looking at the odds for Blaydes vs Lewis, our sports betting calculator tells us that Blaydes’ odds of -450 represent an implied win probability of 81.82 percent while Lewis’ odds of +325 have an implied win probability of 23.53 percent.

The main event of the UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis card also features Blaydes as the biggest favorite on the card at -450 and Lewis as the largest underdog at +325. The tightest betting line comes in the featherweight bout between Julian Erosa (-110) and Nate Landwehr (-120).

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis Odds & Fight Card


UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight – Curtis Blaydes (-450) vs Derrick Lewis (+325)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Ketlen Vieira (-280) vs Yana Kunitskaya (+220)
  • Featherweight – Charles Rosa (-190) vs Darrick Minner (+155)
  • Heavyweight – Aleksei Oleinik (+160) vs Chris Daukaus (-200)
  • Middleweight – Phil Hawes (-125) vs Nassourdine Imavov (-105)
  • Prelims
  • Heavyweight – Andrei Arlovski (+200) vs Tom Aspinall (-260)
  • Featherweight – Jared Gordon (+115) vs Danny Chavez (-145)
  • Lightweight – Drakkar Klose (-175) vs Luis Pena (+145)
  • Bantamweight – Eddie Wineland (-105) vs John Castaneda (-125)
  • Featherweight – Nate Landwehr (-120) vs Julian Erosa (-110)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Shana Dobson (+125) vs Casey O’Neill (-155)
  • Featherweight – Chas Skelly (+190) vs Jamall Emmers (-240)
  • Bantamweight – Aimann Zahabi (+150) vs Drako Rodriguez (-185)
  • Featherweight – Rafael Alves (-190) vs Pat Sabatini (+155)
  • Heavyweight – Sergey Spivak (-250) vs Jared Vanderaa (+195)

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UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: February 20, 5 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Curtis Blaydes-450
Derrick Lewis+325

The next two heavyweight title fights appear to be determined, with champion Stipe Miocic defending against Francis Ngannou at UFC 260, and the winner of that defending against former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones. However, the winner of Blaydes (-450) vs Lewis (+325) may be the next contender after those two championship fights.


Blaydes: Need to Knows
  • Razor has just two defeats on his record, both coming to the same man in the same manner – Francis Ngannou via knockout. Of Blaydes’ 14 pro wins, 10 have been by knockout with four coming by decision.
  • He is an outstanding wrestler, averaging an insane 6.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, including two UFC fights in which he secured double-digit takedowns. On the floor, he has good ground and pound with nasty, heavy elbows.
  • On the feet, he doesn’t have a ton of defense, rather getting in the pocket and throwing straight punches. Blaydes has continually improved in this area, adding in leg kicks, and he’s quite accurate when he punches, but he has little head movement or footwork. That said, when his opponents throw, he typically dips under for a takedown.
  • Blaydes’ last three fights were Shamil Abdurakhimov (win – knockout), Junior dos Santos (win – knockout) and Alexander Volkov (win – unanimous decision).


Lewis: Need to Knows
  • Always a fan favorite with great interviews and big knockout power, Lewis holds the record for most knockouts in UFC heavyweight history with 11. In his career, he has 24 pro wins with 19 coming by knockout as he stalks forward looking to land his heavy hands.
  • The Black Beast doesn’t have a ton of output, averaging just 2.64 significant strikes per minute, but he only needs to land one to end the night. Takedowns will be the key to this fight and he’s been brought to the floor 12 times over his last six fights.
  • He doesn’t use a ton of technique to get back to his feet from the floor, usually just exploding with his strength, though he’s unlikely to employ that approach vs Blaydes. That said, his new approach on the feet is to storm at his opponent, throw his heavy hands and not let them feel comfortable in shooting for a takedown.
  • Lewis’s last three fights were Blagoy Ivanov (win – split decision), Ilir Latifi (win – unanimous decision) and Aleksei Oleinik (win – knockout).

Prediction: Derrick Lewis (+325) via knockout

Ketlen Vieira vs Yana Kunitskaya Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Ketlen Vieira-280
Yana Kunitskaya+220

After suffering her first pro defeat in late 2019, Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira (-280) returned to the win column in her only bout of 2020 and looks to climb back in the title conversation with a win Saturday. Her opponent, Yana “Foxy” Kunitskaya (+220), also closed out 2019 with a loss but picked up a victory in her lone 2020 appearance.


Vieira: Need to Knows
  • All signs pointed to a title shot for Vieira as she carried a 10-0 record into her bout with Irene Aldana in late December 2019. That loss prompted a reset of sorts for Fenomeno, who now looks to get back on a winning streak.
  • Six of Vieira’s 11 pro wins have been stoppages, with two knockouts and four submissions, while her only loss was a knockout. She is primarily a grappler, averaging 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes, and secures 52 percent of her takedown attempts.
  • Her striking continues to improve with plenty of feints and aggression. That said, Vieira tends to load up before throwing and often can be caught lazily leaving the pocket where she can be countered.
  • Vieira’s last three fights were Cat Zingano (win – split decision), Irene Aldana (loss – knockout) and Sijara Eubanks (win – unanimous decision).


Kunitskaya: Need to Knows
  • Kunitskaya fought for the featherweight title in her UFC debut against Cris Cyborg and has been chasing the big lights since then. She lost that fight via knockout and had the same result against Aspen Ladd in late 2019, but her other three UFC bouts ended with unanimous-decision victories.
  • Eight of her 13 pro wins have been stoppages, with seven knockouts and a submission, while she has two knockout and two submission losses among her five defeats. She hasn’t scored a stoppage victory since September 2016.
  • Foxy is an aggressive fighter who averages 4.49 significant strikes per minute, throwing plenty of straight punches and mixing in kicks. Additionally, she is well conditioned and uses her strong clinch work to sap the energy of her opponents. One area of concern: she stuffs just 53 percent of takedown attempts and has been taken down in three of her five UFC fights.
  • Kunitskaya’s last three fights were Marion Reneau (win – unanimous decision), Aspen Ladd (loss – knockout) and Julija Stoliarenko (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Ketlen Vieira (-280) via decision

Charles Rosa vs Darrick Minner Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Charles Rosa-190
Darrick Minner+155

It has been a rocky road for Charles “Boston Strong” Rosa (-190), who has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his eight UFC bouts. Meanwhile, Darrick Minner (+155) is 1-1 in his short UFC career, coming off his first win in the promotion with a first-round submission.


Rosa: Need to Knows
  • Prior to earning his UFC contract, Rosa had a perfect 9-0 record. He has struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, though his losses have come against tough opponents such as Yair Rodriguez, Shane Burgos and Bryce Mitchell.
  • Of his 13 pro wins, 11 have been stoppages with eight submissions and three knockouts, while three of his four defeats were decisions, with one knockout loss as well. He averages 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes but hasn’t secured one over his last three bouts.
  • Boston Strong switches stances frequently, but in his southpaw stance he has a bad tendency of lunging into the pocket with his right hand low and telegraphing a kick behind it. Additionally, when under pressure, he doesn’t always bring his hands to his face and his chin is exposed, but his footwork allows him to get out of danger effectively.
  • Rosa’s last three fights were Manny Bermudez (win – submission), Bryce Mitchell (loss – unanimous decision) and Kevin Aguilar (win – split decision).


Minner: Need to Knows
  • A very active fighter, Minner is ready to compete in his 37th pro fight and is looking to string together back-to-back wins in the UFC. He had a Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series appearance but lost to Herbert Burns, brother of last week’s welterweight title challenger, Gilbert Burns.
  • Of Minner’s 25 pro wins, 22 have been by submission, while eight of his 11 pro defeats have come in the same fashion.
  • He has an outstanding guillotine with a mean squeeze, so shooting in against him is a dangerous act. On the feet, he’s fairly active, throwing plenty of low kicks and looking to counter with his left land. On the floor, he’s constantly searching for submissions but this tires him out if he can’t get his opponents out of there quickly.
  • Minner’s last three fights were Charlie DuBray (win – submission), Grant Dawson (loss – submission) and T.J. Laramie (win – submission).

Prediction: Charles Rosa (-190) via submission

Aleksei Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Aleksei Oleinik+160
Chris Daukaus-200

This is an interesting fight between two heavyweights with vastly different experiences. Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik (+160) is competing in his 75th pro fight, looking to rebound from a loss in his last appearance vs Derrick Lewis. Meanwhile, Chris Daukaus (-200) is set for his 14th pro fight and aims to extend his three-fight winning streak.


Oleinik: Need to Knows
  • Not only does Oleinik have a massive fight experience advantage in this bout, but he also has nearly six times as many wins as Daukaus. Oleinik holds a 59-14-1 record with 46 of his wins coming by submission, though eight of his 14 losses have been knockouts.
  • As his fight name suggests, The Boa Constrictor has outstanding submission skills and incredible strength. He averages 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes and on the mat he looks to squeeze the consciousness from his opponents in a hurry.
  • On the feet, he primarily just lumbers forward throwing big overhand punches and kicks, but essentially he wants to close the distance and get his hands on his foes. When throwing from the hip, he has some pop but can be countered rather easily, which can create openings for takedowns.
  • Oleinik’s last three fights were Maurice Greene (win – submission), Fabricio Werdum (win – split decision) and Derrick Lewis (loss – knockout).


Daukaus: Need to Knows
  • Daukaus has made short work of his two UFC opponents, scoring first-round knockouts over Parker Porter and Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira. Nine of his 10 pro wins have come by knockout while all three of his losses were stoppages, two by knockout and one by submission.
  • He has great combinations and is quite active for a heavyweight. He rarely throws just one strike at a time, he is fast and he knows when his opponent covers up to stop and save his energy.
  • In the past, he had some issues with conditioning and takedown defense, which could be a big problem vs Oleinik. That said, if he can swarm the veteran early with relentless strikes, the wrestling may not come to be.
  • Daukaus’ last three fights were Danny Holmes (win – knockout), Parker Porter (win – knockout) and Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira (win – knockout).

Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik (+160) via submission

Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Phil Hawes-125
Nassourdine Imavov-105

A pair of 9-2 middleweights who are unbeaten in the Octagon will kick off our main card. Nassourdine Imavov (-105) is riding a six-fight winning streak dating back to November 2017 and won his UFC debut last October. Phil “Megatron” Hawes (-125) has been more active, winning five in a row since mid-2019, and scored an 18-second knockout win in his UFC debut, also in October.


Hawes: Need to Knows
  • Megatron had two cracks at a UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, losing the first one to Julian Marquez by knockout but coming back with a first-round knockout victory in September. All 11 of his pro fights have been stoppages; he has seven knockout and two submission triumphs while he has knockout and submission losses as well.
  • He is explosive with his wrestling skills and his strikes. Hawes has a good jab that he follows with a powerful right hook. When he has his foes against the cage, he swarms them with a flurry of powerful strikes.
  • When he is striking, though, his head stays on the centerline and his chin can sometimes be up in the air, vulnerable to getting hit hard. Additionally, while being explosive, he can sometimes slow down and have defensive lapses.
  • Hawes’ last three fights were Yuri Fraga (win – knockout), Khadzhimurat Bestaev (win – knockout) and Jacob Malkoun (win – knockout).  


Imavov: Need to Knows
  • After dropping two of his first five fights, Imavov has gotten into a groove, winning six in a row, and now seeks a second win over a DWTNCS alum. Seven of his nine pro wins have been stoppages with three knockouts and four submissions, while he has just one stoppage defeat, a submission.
  • Imavov is extremely patient, throwing plenty of feints before acting on his reads. He has very good footwork and is light on his feet. Most of his strikes are straight and powerful but he enters the pocket aggressively and can eat a shot when looking to land as well.
  • He seems to do his best work at close range being able to land cleanly and lean back out of range. However, he will be at a two-inch reach disadvantage in this bout so that may not be as effective. That said, he’ll likely have the faster hand speed of the two.
  • Imavov’s last three fights were Mateusz Gluch (win – submission), Jonathan Meunier (win – knockout) and Jordan Williams (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Phil Hawes (-125) via knockout

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis Best Bets

FighterOdds
Heavyweight – Derrick Lewis+325
Women’s Bantamweight – Ketlen Vieira-280
Featherweight – Charles Rosa-190
Heavyweight – Aleksei Oleinik+160
Middleweight – Phil Hawes -125