Conor McGregor Next Opponent Odds: Diaz, Poirier are Co-Favorites

The “Notorious” Conor McGregor returned to the Octagon at UFC 257 on January 23 after a one-year layoff and was stopped by Dustin Poirier via TKO in the second round, marking the first time he has been knocked out in his career. We now have odds on who the Irishman will fight next, with two trilogies sharing the shortest Conor McGregor next opponent odds.

Online sportsbook Bovada has listed odds on who McGregor will fight next, with Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier both favored at +180. They’re followed closely by Justin Gaethje at +550, Tony Ferguson at +600 and Jorge Masvidal at +1000.

See Odds Shark’s Best UFC Sites

Conor McGregor Next Opponent Odds

Odds as of January 29 at Bovada

Unfamiliar with betting on the UFC but intrigued by the Conor McGregor next opponent odds? Check out our great How to Bet on UFC guide to help get you in on the action. Also, keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest betting lines.

Why is Diaz Favored to be Conor McGregor’s Next Opponent?

These boys have a beef to settle. Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz have collided twice previously, with Diaz winning the first via second-round submission and McGregor taking the rematch via majority decision. So, of course, a rubber match makes sense, especially with both men coming off losses.

What makes this trilogy fight a little more intriguing is that their first two encounters took place in the welterweight division, while this one would be at lightweight. 

Does Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz III Make Sense?

This fight also makes a lot of sense from the company’s perspective as well. I mentioned that both men are coming off a loss – McGregor to Poirier and Diaz to Jorge Masvidal after a doctor’s stoppage due to a cut.

Additionally, some people criticized McGregor recently for his approach with Donald Cerrone and Dustin Poirier in the lead-up to the fights because “Notorious” was friendly to his opponents and not his former wild self. Diaz will get in McGregor’s face and stir up some emotion. 

Lastly, this fight will sell. Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor are both draws and you don’t need a belt on the line to have this as a pay-per-view main event. Each of McGregor’s last two fights didn’t have a championship on the line and headlined PPVs. The winner of this one fights Dustin Poirier for the belt, which means more money in the UFC’s pocket.

Is Dustin Poirier the Stronger Betting Option for McGregor’s Next Opponent?

You have a coin flip in Conor McGregor’s next opponent odds, with Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier both at +180. I outlined the reasons why I believe McGregor’s next fight will be with Diaz, but some may be more bullish on a McGregor vs Poirier trilogy.

Both men have scored knockout wins over the other, with Conor stopping Dustin in 2014 in the featherweight division, while Poirier returned the favor on January 23 in the lightweight division. McGregor’s team has already been calling for the trilogy and Poirier simply said that it makes sense with each already having secured a win over the other.

Should McGregor Get a Title Shot After a Loss?

This is a tricky one because there have been fighters who have lost a fight and still stepped into a title bout in their next appearance. That said, typically that fighter changes weight divisions, but that wouldn’t be the case this time around. McGregor hasn’t earned a victory in the lightweight division since 2016 and lost his last two at 155 pounds, so for me, Nate Diaz is providing the best value in Conor McGregor’s next opponent odds.

Still, if Poirier is open to fighting McGregor for the belt and both men agree on the trilogy, how can the UFC not make that fight happen even if a contender like Charlie Oliveira gets overlooked.

If I were matchmaker Sean Shelby, I’d do McGregor vs Diaz in July with the winner fighting Poirier in late 2021. I believe McGregor beats Diaz and the UFC gets both fights.