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Cormier vs Miocic Trilogy Odds Analysis and Prediction

Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier, who headline UFC 252, fighting at UFC 241

Finally, the heavyweight division will begin to move forward again as Stipe Miocic is ready to defend his title against Daniel “DC” Cormier after a layoff of nearly a year for both fighters. The two are set to complete their trilogy in the UFC 252 main event on August 15 at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. 

Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds for this heavyweight tilt and has listed the challenger, Cormier, as the slight -120 favorite with the champion, Miocic, coming back as a -110 underdog.

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Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Stipe Miocic-110
Daniel Cormier-120

Odds as of August 14 at Bovada

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Odds Analysis

The betting odds have shifted drastically throughout this trilogy. Cormier was the +175 underdog in their first encounter he won via first-round knockout, then was the -140 favorite in the rematch Miocic won via fourth-round knockout. Now, at one win apiece and a year since their last fight, Cormier has settled in as the -120 favorite and Miocic comes back as the slight -110 underdog.

Oddsmakers have struggled to peg Miocic’s odds recently. Though he is 7-1 over his last eight fights, he has been an underdog in three of them. Meanwhile, DC has been in nine UFC title fights between heavyweight and light heavyweight, closing as a dog in five of them. So it’s not a total surprise to see him as only a slight favorite, especially considering Miocic won the last battle.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

In the first meeting between the two, Miocic was the aggressor, pushing Cormier against the cage in a clinch situation and roughing him up. However, they circled to the center of the Octagon in close range and DC landed a sneaky shot that put Miocic to sleep.

In the rematch, Cormier was more the aggressor with great leg kicks and even a big slam in the opening round. On top, Miocic struggled to do anything other than tie up Cormier and attempt to get the fight stood up. DC was quite cocky in fighting the rematch, walking right at Miocic with his hands by his sides until he got into range and threw heavy punches. Meanwhile, Miocic had a really nice jab and had much better success when they were at a longer distance.

Both men landed heavily throughout the fight, really showing off their terrific chins with neither guy taking a step backward. Things turned in the fourth round when DC appeared to be taking the round off, not throwing a lot of punches, perhaps in hopes of conserving energy for a fifth round that never came. Miocic started to rip the body, Cormier didn’t defend and the former champ went to the well over and over again, eventually dropping and finishing DC to reclaim his belt.

I’m sure DC learned that he cannot take a round off because Miocic will bring it for the duration of the bout. Another factor in that fight was the two bad eye pokes Miocic endured that required surgery afterward; was he hindered in the rounds that DC won? When Cormier was pushing the pace, he was the far better fighter, and the one and only takedown he had was pure control. This is a tough match to predict because both fighters had their moments in each fight. I think if Cormier controls his pace a little better and takes breaks at different intervals, he can retire on top.

Prediction: Daniel Cormier (-120) via decision