UFC Fight Night London: Till vs Masvidal Odds and Picks

For the first time in nearly a year to the day, the Octagon will be set up at the O2 Arena in London, England. The card will be headlined with a bout in the welterweight division as Darren “The Gorilla” Till takes on Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal. Till is coming off his first career loss, but is a -230 favorite to get back in the win column, while Masvidal is looking to end his two-fight losing slide and is coming back at +180. I have a breakdown and a pick for each fight on the main card.

Till vs Masvidal Fight Center

Darren Till vs Jorge Masvidal

Till (-230) is returning to the Octagon for the first time since his loss to Tyron Woodley for the welterweight strap at UFC 228 in September of last year. That defeat was the first on The Gorilla’s professional record. Prior to that, he had a perfect 17-0 slate with 10 of those victories coming by knockout and two by submission.

The Liverpool, England, native fights very long and has the ability to keep his opponents at the end of his strikes. In his unanimous decision triumph over Stephen Thompson, he was able to show off his point-fighting ability by consistently touching “Wonderboy” with neither fighter being able to land the big strike. Additionally, Till likes to keep the fight standing and defends 86 percent of his opponents’ takedown attempts.

Masvidal (+180) is looking to avoid a career-long three-fight losing slide as he returns to the cage for the first time since UFC 217 in November of 2017. Gamebred had lost back-to-back fights – in 2015 and 2016 – but broke out of that slump with a three-fight winning streak, including consecutive knockouts over Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone.

The 34-year-old has a nice long jab and likes to get into scrappy fights with his opponents, putting a lot of trust in his chin and rightfully so as he has only been knocked out once in his career, in 2008. Meanwhile, 13 of his 32 professional wins have come by knockout.

This is an intriguing main event as we have two fighters coming off defeats. One, Masvidal, has never dropped three in a row, while the other, Till, is coming off his first-ever loss. I think that The Gorilla is the better technical striker and I find that Gamebred is a little slower to the punch but has really good power. I don’t expect this one to hit the floor.

Prediction: Darren Till (-230) via decision

Till vs Masvidal Fight Center

Leon Edwards vs Gunnar Nelson

Edwards (-150) is looking to extend his ongoing six-fight winning streak as he enters the Octagon for the first time since June of last year. During the England native’s streak, four bouts have gone to the judges’ scorecards while the other two were finishes, one by knockout and one by submission. This is a common theme for “Rocky” as nine of his 16 professional wins have been finishes, six by knockout and three by submission.

The 27-year-old is a calm fighter who has really quick hands. Edwards doesn’t use a lot of extra energy to avoid strikes with his great ability to judge his opponents’ range and when he finds his opportunities, he’s quick at firing a strong left hand down the pipe. Due to his calm demeanor, he is able to avoid 55 percent of his opponents’ strikes, absorbing just 1.99 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he stuffs 70 percent of takedown attempts, which will be crucial in this fight.

Nelson (+120) is looking to string together consecutive wins after earning a second-round submission triumph over Alex Oliveira at UFC 231 in December. That was his third victory in the last four fights, losing only to Santiago Ponzinibbio by first-round knockout in July 2017. Of 17 professional wins by “Gunni,” 13 have been by submission, including seven of his eight wins in the UFC.

The Iceland native’s striking is a little rudimentary with long lunging strikes just looking to close the distance on his opponent. He doesn’t do a great job avoiding strikes either, absorbing 3.72 significant strikes per minute while only dishing out 1.93 significant strikes. However, he averages 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, hitting 57 percent of his attempts, and when the fight hits the floor he is constantly searching for the submission.

Edwards has shown the willingness to take fights to the mat as he averages 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and had multiple takedowns in four of his last six fights, but in doing so puts himself in tremendous danger. If Nelson can’t close the distance and get his hands on Edwards, he may get picked apart from the outside.

Prediction: Leon Edwards (-150) via decision

Edwards vs Nelson Fight Center

Volkan Oezdemir vs Dominick Reyes

Oezdemir (+195) is looking to get back into the win column after losing his last two fights for his first-ever losing slide. Most recently, “No Time” was submitted in the third round by Anthony Smith in October of last year and before that he was knocked out in the second by Daniel Cormier. Prior to this skid, the Switzerland native had a five-fight winning streak with three triumphs coming by knockout.

The 29-year-old is an aggressive fighter who storms out of the gate at his opponents throwing hands, while showing little respect for his foes’ power. Of his 15 professional wins, 11 have come by knockout and one by submission. One glaring issue for Oezdemir appears to be his conditioning as he tends to slow down pretty quickly when fights get out of the first round and he looks a little clueless when he is taken to the floor.

Reyes (-250) is laying his perfect 10-0 record on the line as he returns to action for the first time since UFC 229 in October of last year. “The Devastator” went to the judges’ scorecards for just the second time in his career in that UFC 229 bout with Ovince Saint Preux, winning by unanimous decision. The 29-year-old had earned finishes in six straight fights before that, with each one coming in the first round and five of them by knockout.

The California native has power in everything he throws, whether it’s punches or kicks. He is a very active fighter always trying to find angles to land his strikes. Reyes averages 6.49 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.22 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, he stuffs 85 percent of takedown attempts.

This is surely going to be a great war between two fantastic strikers. Don’t blink, though, as this fight could be ended with a single shot early in the fight. If the bout progresses out of the first round, I think the momentum drastically swings in Reyes’ favor.

Prediction: Dominick Reyes (-250) via knockout

Oezdemir vs Reyes Fight Center

Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Quinonez

Wood (-280) is seeking his eighth straight win and aiming to remain undefeated in the UFC. The 25-year-old made his Octagon debut last June and picked up a second-round submission win over Johnny Eduardo and followed that up with a third-round submission victory over Andre Ewell at UFC 232 in December. “The Prospect” was signed in the UFC with a 13-3 record, nine of those wins coming by knockout, and now has back-to-back submission wins.

The 25-year-old has incredible accuracy and judgment of distance and range. He averages 4.37 significant strikes per minute but only absorbs 2.42 significant strikes per minute, avoiding 64 percent of strikes thrown. This was on full display as he outstruck Andre Ewell 171-18 in their UFC 232 meeting.

Quinonez (+220) is riding a four-fight winning streak with his last loss coming in his UFC debut at UFC 180 against Alejandro Perez. Of this current streak, three wins have gone to the judges’ scorecards, while the fourth was a first-round submission win over Leonardo Morales in 2015. Overall, the Mexico native has a 7-2 record with two wins coming by knockout and one by submission.

The 28-year-old is very light on his feet and has good movement and has the ability to fire his leg kicks quickly, keeping his opponents off balance. He does have a tendency to move straight backward, which is a dangerous move if his opponent throws a flurry of punches.

A winning streak will come to an end in this bout. I think Quinonez is going to want to get this fight to the floor as Wood will have the power advantage on the feet. However, shooting in against “The Prospect” could leave “El Teco” in danger as Wood has shown his improvement in his submission skills.

Prediction: Nathaniel Wood (-280) via knockout

Wood vs Quinonez Fight Center

Danny Roberts vs Claudio Silva

Roberts (+125) is eyeing his first three-fight winning streak in the UFC, coming off a first-round knockout over Oliver Enkamp last March and a split-decision triumph over David Zawada in July. “Hot Chocolate” had dropped two of three before his current winning streak, getting knocked out by Nordine Taleb and Mike Perry and earning a TKO win over Bobby Nash. Overall, 12 of Roberts’ 16 professional wins have been finishes, including seven by knockout and five by submission.

The England native has power in his hands and loads up on every strike he throws. Frequently, he will paw at his opponent looking to find his range and then fires with true power when he feels his foe in his wheelhouse. He averages 3.71 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 3.44 significant strikes per minute.

Silva (-155) is looking to extend his 12-fight winning streak and remain perfect inside the Octagon. “Hannibal” has been riddled with injuries. He fought Leon Edwards in 2014, earning a split-decision victory, and then didn’t return to the Octagon until May of last year when he earned a first-round submission win over Nordine Taleb. The Brazil native was set to fight Ramazan Emeev in September, but once again injuries got the better of him.

The 36-year-old lost his pro debut in 2007 but has rattled off 12 straight wins since then, seven of them by submission. He averages 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes, constantly looking to work toward a submission. He is an aggressive fighter who throws long punches and strong kicks, but ultimately just wants to get the fight to the floor.

I would like to see Silva use his right jab more than he does as typically he just overextends with his left hand, which leaves him very vulnerable to overhand counter-strikes. That being said, if he gets the fight to the floor, he is extremely dangerous. Meanwhile, Roberts likes to keep the fight standing and throws his strikes with bad intentions.

Prediction: Claudio Silva (-155) via submission

Roberts vs Silva Fight Center

Jack Marshman vs John Phillips

Marshman (-155) is looking to put an end to his two-fight losing slide as he seeks his first win since July of 2017. “The Hammer” suffered a first-round submission loss to Antonio Carlos Junior in October of 2017 and then took a unanimous-decision loss to Karl Roberson at UFC 230 in November of last year. Overall, Marshman has a 22-8 record with 13 wins coming by knockout and five by submission.

The Wales native likes to get into wild brawls, exchanging hands with his opponents. However, he always seems to be second to the punch after eating a shot from his counterpart. This is evident as he averages 2.87 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.78 significant strikes. Additionally, he only stuffs 22 percent of his opponents’ takedown attempts.

Phillips (+125) is aiming to collect his first win in the Octagon after coming up empty-handed in his first two attempts. Prior to being signed in the UFC, “The Welsh Wrecking Machine” had a four-fight winning streak, with three of the wins coming in the first round, while his two losses in the Octagon came by submission.

The 33-year-old throws wild strikes looking to get into wars with his opponents. Most of his punches are loopy and not down the middle, which has resulted in him getting pieced up by quicker strikes. He averages 2.83 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.42 significant strikes per minute, only avoiding 33 percent of his opponents’ strikes.

These two Wales-born fighters are going to meet in the middle of the Octagon and chuck knuckles, which is going to be wildly exciting. I think Marshman is the more refined striker and will be quicker to the punch than Phillips.

Prediction: Jack Marshman (-155) via knockout

Marshman vs Phillips Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night London: Till vs Masvidal: