Mackenzie Dern (left) is favored in the Dern vs Yan odds

Dern vs Yan Odds & Picks: Dern’s Jiu-Jitsu Will Be X Factor

Two top-notch female UFC fighters will be in the spotlight when strawweights Mackenzie Dern (12-2) and Xiaonan Yan (15-3) share the Octagon on October 1. The five-round main event will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas.

UFC Vegas 61 will begin with prelim fights at 4 p.m. ET with the main card to start at 7 p.m. Dern is currently the -250 favorite in the Dern vs Yan odds.

Sportsbook has you covered for all Dern vs Yan betting and other UFC odds.

Dern vs Yan Betting Notes

The women’s strawweight belt is very much up for grabs. Dern, the fifth-ranked 115-pounder, and Yan, the sixth-ranked strawweight, are vying to push themselves out of the division’s middle tier and into title contention. 

Dern, a jiu-jitsu specialist, has fought in the UFC since 2017, amassing a 7-2 company record. The 29-year-old has won five of her last six bouts, including three by submission victory. Seven of her pro wins have come via submission and five have come via decision.

Yan is looking to end a two-fight losing skid after dropping a decision to Marina Rodriguez at UFC 272 and losing to now-champion Carla Esparza by technical knockout at UFC Vegas 27. “Nine” has seven stoppage wins on her pro record but has never scored a finish since joining the UFC in 2017. 

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan Odds

Sportsbook lists Dern as the -250 favorite and Yan as the +195 underdog. The biggest underdog on the card is featherweight Don Shainis (+650) in his fight vs Sodiq Yusuff (-1100).

The tightest odds of the event come in a prelim women’s featherweight bout between Julija Stoliarenko (-120) and Chelsea Chandler (-103).

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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Women’s Strawweight – Mackenzie Dern (-250) vs Xiaonan Yan (+195)
  • Welterweight – Randy Brown (-350) vs Francisco Trinaldo (+255)
  • Bantamweight – Raoni Barcelos (-250) vs Trevin Jones (+200)
  • Featherweight – Sodiq Yusuff (-1100) vs Don Shainis (+650)
  • Bantamweight – John Castenada (-193) vs Daniel Santos (+153)
  • Lightweight – Mike Davis (-185) vs Viacheslav Borshchev (+150)
  • Prelims
  • Heavyweight – Aleksei Oleinik (+145) vs Ilir Latifi (-185)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Jessica Penne (+176) vs Tabatha Ricci (-220)
  • Bantamweight – Joaquim Silva (-145) vs Jesse Ronson (+120)
  • Middleweight – Brendan Allen (-105) vs Krzysztof Jotko (-123)
  • Light Heavyweight – Maxim Grishin (-176) vs Philipe Lins (+141)
  • Women’s Featherweight – Julija Stoliarenko (-120) vs Chelsea Chandler (-103)
  • Bantamweight – Randy Costa (-325) vs Guido Cannetti (+240)

Odds as of October 1 via Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: October 1, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan Odds & Pick

Mackenzie Dern-250
Xiaonan Yan+195

-250 isn’t the most chalk Dern has seen in her UFC career, but it’ll be her heaviest favorite status since a bout vs Hannah Cifers in May 2020. The American has fought well enough in her career to get the nod from most sportsbooks, but it’s worth noting her two UFC losses – to Amanda Ribas and Rodriguez – came while she was favored by -185 and -195, respectively. In fact, Dern has been the favorite in all but one of her UFC bouts (+105 vs Nina Nunes, where Dern won by SUB).

Yan has been favored in six of her eight UFC fights, including her loss to Esparza at UFC Vegas 27. After Sportsbook as a +230 ’dog vs Rodriguez at UFC 272, Yan will fight as a back-to-back underdog for the first time in her career when she takes on Dern. 

Looking at the Dern vs Yan odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Dern’s -250 status gives her an implied win probability of 71.43 percent. Yan’s +195 odds represent an implied win probability of 66.10 percent. That means a successful $10 bet on the favorite pays out $14, while the same wager on the underdog pays $29.50.

Dern: Need to Knows
  • The 29-year-old is of Brazilian descent and has trained in jiu-jitsu since she was a child, eventually earning her a prestigious black belt. With her submission skill set, Dern is as skilled as any female fighter, making her a menace on the mat. She is ferociously creative in the way she sinks kneebars and armbars especially, having secured 58 percent of her pro wins by submission. Yan will be utterly outclassed if this fight hits the canvas.
  • As is the case when fighting any jiu-jitsu specialist, Yan will need to be cautious about engaging Dern, even if the American is knocked down or laying on her back. It’s an easy trap for a fighter like Yan to hunt a ground-and-pound KO and get overexcited, ultimately walking into a bottom-mount submission such as an inverted triangle. Randa Markos walked into a submission against Dern at UFC Vegas 11 doing that exact thing. Dern isn’t a super skilled striker, so it’s tempting to engage at all times, but watch for her to lay plenty of traps from bottom position.
  • Dern’s last three fights were against Tecia Torres (win – split decision), Rodriguez (loss – unanimous decision) and Nunes (win – submission).
Yan: Need to Knows
  • Yan made her come-up in the UFC as an aggressive striker who loves forward pressure. The Chinese fighter has a strong chin, often getting in tight for dirty boxing exchanges. She’s so aggressive that she’ll often be happy taking damage in close since she knows she’ll be close enough to fire back. At distance, Yan is also very dangerous. She has no problem selling out for hook kicks or spinning backfists to put on a show. 
  • Dern’s last loss to Rodriguez offered a good blueprint for how to beat the BJJ expert. Rodriguez barely survived some suffocating spots on the mat, but was much better on the feet. Rodriguez kept Dern at distance with leg kicks and front kicks. When things got in tight, she went to her Muay Thai toolbox. That’s how Yan can win. If she keeps the distance – though that’s not Yan’s style – and pushes Dern away, she’ll hold a significant advantage. It remains to be seen if Yan’s fear of going to the mat stifles her aggressiveness, however. 
  • Yan’s last three fights were against Rodriguez (loss – split decision), Esparza (loss – technical knockout) and Claudia Gadelha (win – unanimous decision).

Pick: Dern by submission (-121)

Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo Odds & Pick

Randy Brown-350
Francisco Trinaldo+255

The co-main event features a welterweight fight between Randy Brown (15-4) and Francisco Trinaldo (28-8).

Brown: Need to Knows
  • “Rude Boy” surprised everyone with his performance vs Khaos Williams at UFC 274. Brown survived two knockdowns, but frustrated Williams with a quick jab and enough movement to avoid Khaos’ deadly overhands and hooks. The improvement in fight IQ was a welcome step in Brown’s progression, as the 32-year-old has now won three fights in a row. He looks more mature in the Octagon, fighting smarter instead of fighting harder. The latter strategy saw him end up on the receiving end of some tough KOs earlier in his career.
  • While Brown is powerful and can put guys out, we see this bout as a point fight waiting to happen. The New York native is a balanced fighter, which is reflected in his stoppage wins (6 KO/5 SUB), but Trinaldo isn’t easy to put out. The Brazilian has dropped five of his eight losses via decision. He has three submission losses to his record, but the latest came at the hands of an excellent wrestler in Kevin Lee. We don’t anticipate Brown submitting Trinaldo.
  • Brown’s last three fights have come against Williams (win – split decision), Jared Gooden (win – unanimous decision) and Alex Oliveira (win – submission). 
Trinaldo: Need to Knows
  • At 44 years of age, Trinaldo and Aleksei Oleinik share the honor of being the oldest fighter on the UFC’s active roster. The Brazilian debuted way back at UFC 147 and has amassed 18 wins (50 percent finish rate) over his 10-year career inside the Octagon. 
  • Brown will hold a massive eight-inch reach advantage over Trinaldo. We expect that will help Brown keep his distance and wail on Trinaldo’s chin with quick left jabs. That said, the Brazilian, fighting southpaw, should still be able to defend himself. Eight of Trinaldo’s last 10 fights have gone the distance. 
  • Trinaldo’s last three fights were against Danny Roberts (win – unanimous decision), Dwight Grant (win – split decision) and Muslim Salikhov (loss – unanimous decision).

Pick: Brown by decision (+129)

Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis Odds & Pick

Sodiq Yusuff-1100
Don Shainis+650

A fun, albeit lopsided bout between featherweights Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) and Don Shainis (13-3) will also take place on the main card.

Yusuff: Need to Knows
  • Yusuff was expected to fight Giga Chikadze at UFC Vegas 60 but was pushed to this event after Chikadze withdrew. The change also comes with a drop in competition as “Super” now faces a much lesser opponent in Shainis. Yusuff has fought as the favorite in all six of his UFC fights, although he’s never been as heavily chalked as he is vs Shainis (-1000).
  • The 29-year-old is a physical phenom, possessing equal parts cardio and strength. He also moves very methodically, keeping a narrow stance and a high guard before exploding for wild hook combos. He’s a high-volume puncher (5.22 significant strikes landed per minute) who doesn’t absorb as much as he throws (3.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Yusuff has shared the cage with far more experienced and intimidating opponents than Shainis. We expect the Nigerian to finish this fight.
  • Yusuff’s last three fights have come against Alex Caceres (win – unanimous decision), Arnold Allen (loss – unanimous decision) and Andre Fili (win – unanimous decision).
Shainis: Need to Knows
  • “Shameless” will be making his UFC debut, which only makes it harder to defeat a stone-cold killer like Yusuff. The odds for this bout originally opened with Shainis as a +425 underdog but have now shifted to him as the +600 ‘dog.
  • Shainis obviously isn’t known at the UFC level, but he’s been a menace in MMA for a little while. The 31-year-old had an excellent run in the Cage Titans promotion, working his way to becoming the featherweight champion. He’s on a five-fight win streak, with four of those wins finishing UNDER 2.5 rounds. He’s a big-time striker, as is Yusuff. Someone is going out. 
  • The American’s last three fights were against Brice Picaud (win – knockout), Cody Pfister (win – knockout) and Jay Ellis (win – knockout). 

Pick: Yusuff by KO/TKO/DQ (-200)

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