UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs Poirier 2 Betting Odds

Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier are set to do it again when they headline UFC Fight Night in Calgary on July 28. The first contest between the two was just what we expected heading into it – fireworks! Since 2014, the two fighters have combined for a record of 12-4 and one no contest, with eight of those wins coming by way of KO/TKO. That one no contest came when the pair squared off in the prelims at UFC 211: Miocic vs dos Santos in Dallas, Texas. The rematch has Poirier as the -160 favorite with Alvarez coming back at +130.

First Meeting

The first fight was simply a brawl. Both fighters finished the clash bruised, battered and bloodied. Alvarez was the slight +110 underdog with Poirier coming in as the -130 favorite. Poirier controlled the first round with his lightning-quick, crisp jabs and heavy kicks. “The Diamond” took the center of the Octagon and had no intentions of giving it back with his constant pressure and great ability to stuff takedowns. Alvarez landed some clean shots toward the end of the round, which Poirier shook off showing no ill effects. Alvarez made the round close with his late pressure, but it was a clear 10-9 round for Poirier.

The second round saw “The Underground King” being the aggressor, looking more loose and willing to exchange. Once again, though, the jab of Poirier seemed to keep Alvarez at bay, allowing the southpaw to set up his shots and take control once again. And take control he did, as Poirier finally landed his first clean straight midway through the second round, immediately rocking Alvarez and putting him against the cage. Poirier was patient picking his shots looking to finish the orthodoxed Alvarez, but in classic brawling fashion “The Underground King” landed a shot of his own, stumbling “The Diamond” and backing him against the cage. Alvarez secured his one and only takedown of the fight on the rocked Poirier. As Poirier attempted to get back to his feet, he was struck three times by Alvarez knees, all of which were illegal due to Poirier having one hand in contact with the mat and with the new rules not in effect. The third such blow cut and dropped Poirier, ending the match.

Referee Herb Dean took his time in making his decision how to rule this fight. He came to the conclusion that the initial knees were legal and that the final blow was accidental as Poirier was falling down and that it should be ruled as a no contest. Both men acknowledged that it was unintentional and were game to do it again. The fight finished with Poirier out-striking Alvarez 79-44, including landing 51 percent of his significant strikes.

Leading into the Rematch

Since the no contest, “The Diamond” has knockout victories over Anthony Pettis and Justin Gaethje. “The Underground King” has had only one bout since the first fight, taking on Gaethje in a war at UFC 218 and also earning the knockout over “The Highlight.”

Keys to Victory

Poirier (23-5) had the right game plan in the first battle with Alvarez. He was quick to the punch, controlled the Octagon and when Alvarez opened up, he landed the heavy shot. “The Diamond” will do much of the same with his high output trying to frustrate Alvarez. He enters this fight first in the UFC lightweight division averaging 7.25 strikes per minute, while Alvarez is ninth averaging 4.68. Poirier is also fifth in the division with a 50.54 significant strike accuracy.

Alvarez (29-5) needs to go back to his wrestling to put Poirier away. “The Underground King” has power in his hands for sure, but it seemed in the first fight he was a step behind, with Poirier getting to the punch first. Alvarez should look to capitalize on a Poirier kick to get the fight to the mat. If Alvarez can get Poirier to the ground, he can dictate the pace of this fight and find his opportunity to show off his own lethal power. It should be noted, however, that on Alvarez’s attempts for the takedown in the first match with Poirier, he left his head high and was nearly caught in a guillotine in the first.