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Edwards vs Muhammad Odds & Predictions: Will time off hurt Edwards?

Leon Edwards (left) is favored in the UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad odds.

Following a fantastic and exciting UFC 259, the promotion remains at the UFC Apex Center for UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad. The two men on the marquee will look to cement themselves in the top five of the welterweight rankings as Leon Edwards puts his eight-fight winning streak on the line, while Belal Muhammad has won his last four.

Looking at the Edwards vs Muhammad odds, it’s the No. 3-ranked welterweight, Edwards, who is the favorite with No. 13 Muhammad listed as the underdog. We have the full UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad odds and predictions below.

It appeared that Edwards was on track for a title shot after winning eight fights in a row, with his last loss coming in 2015 against the current welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman. After beating Rafael dos Anjos in July 2019, Edwards hasn’t fought since, holding out for a title shot that didn’t come.

A decision loss to Geoff Neal in January 2019 broke up two separate four-fight winning streaks for Muhammad. He’s hoping he can get his first five-fight winning streak in the UFC with a statement victory over a top-five contender.

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad odds, with Edwards listed as the -270 favorite and Muhammad the +210 underdog. This means you would have to wager $270 to profit $100 on an Edwards victory, while a $100 bet on a Muhammad win would profit you $210.

Looking at the odds for Edwards vs Muhammad, our sports betting calculator tells us that Edwards’ odds of -270 represent an implied win probability of 72.97 percent while Muhammad’s odds of +210 have an implied win probability of 32.26 percent.

The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad odds comes in a lightweight prelim bout as Nasrat Haqparast is a -400 favorite over Rafa Garcia (+300). The tightest line comes in the opening fight of the night between welterweights Matthew Semelsberger (-125) and Jason Witt (-105).

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad Odds & Fight Card


UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad Odds & Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Welterweight – Leon Edwards (-270) vs Belal Muhammad (+210)
  • Light Heavyweight – Misha Cirkunov (-135) vs Ryan Spann (+105)
  • Featherweight – Dan Ige (-155) vs Gavin Tucker (+125)
  • Bantamweight – Jonathan Martinez (-325) vs Davey Grant (+250)
  • Flyweight – Manel Kape (-140) vs Matheus Nicolau (+110)
  • Middleweight – Eryk Anders (+150) vs Darren Stewart (-185)
  • Prelims
  • Women’s Strawweight – Angela Hill (-380) vs Ashley Yoder (+290)
  • Featherweight – Charles Jourdain (-260) vs Marcelo Rojo (+200)
  • Bantamweight – Rani Yahya (-300) vs Ray Rodriguez (+230)
  • Lightweight – Nasrat Haqparast (-400) vs Rafa Garcia (+300)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Cortney Casey (+125) vs JJ Aldrich (-155)
  • Women’s Strawweight – Gloria de Paula (-190) vs Jinh Yu Frey (+155)
  • Welterweight – Matthew Semelsberger (-125) vs Jason Witt (-105)

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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: March 13, 5 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Leon Edwards-270
Belal Muhammad+210

It has been over five years since Leon “Rocky” Edwards (-270) tasted defeat, a decision loss to welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, and a win here may put him in line for his long-awaited title shot. On the other side, Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (+210) has had two strong victories in the duration Edwards has been out and now has a huge opportunity to make a jump in the welterweight rankings.


Edwards: Need to Knows
  • It wasn’t the best start to Edwards’ UFC career back in 2014, splitting his first four fights, including that Usman defeat. Since then, he’s a perfect 8-0, including a victory over former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos.
  • Of Rocky’s three losses, two were via decision and one was a disqualification due to an illegal knee. Meanwhile, his 18 pro wins have been an even split between finishes and decisions, with six knockouts, three submissions and nine going to the judges’ scorecards.
  • The southpaw is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, while on the feet he averages 2.53 significant strikes per minute and absorbs just 2.05. Edwards has been in the UFC for almost seven years but is just 29 years old.
  • Edwards has a great jab and if he finds the target, he often follows with his straight left that is crisp and accurate. He is primarily a counter-striker, standing fairly flat-footed waiting for his opponents to close distance, and he greets them with a punch or will clinch and land his nasty elbows. With the minimal footwork, though, he is susceptible to leg kicks, which RDA used against him.
  • Edwards’ last three fights were Donald Cerrone (win – unanimous decision), Gunnar Nelson (win – split decision) and Rafael dos Anjos (win – unanimous decision).


Muhammad: Need to Knows
  • In a similar path, Muhammad lost two of his first three fights in the UFC but has won eight of his last nine. Belal is a decision machine with 15 of his 21 pro fights going the distance. He has been knocked out once and has four knockout victories and a submission.
  • Remember the Name is also a well-rounded fighter but with a much larger output. He averages 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, though he only has a 28 percent success rate. Additionally, he averages 4.86 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.03.
  • Belal likes to back his opponents up with forward pressure and seems to always throw a strike when he’s in tight range, not being afraid of a firefight. He mixes up his strikes nicely, though at times he looks too much for the head shot.
  • One thing that may get Muhammad in trouble in this fight: When he gets in the pocket to strike, he doesn’t typically back out of range but rather punches to back his opponent away from him. Edwards is the type of guy who is going to throw several shots in a row with increasing power if he lands clean on the first one.
  • Muhammad’s last three fights were Takashi Sato (win – submission), Lyman Good (win – unanimous decision) and Dhiego Lima (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Leon Edwards (-270) via decision

Misha Cirkunov vs Ryan Spann Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Misha Cirkunov-135
Ryan Spann+105

Ryan “Superman” Spann (+105) looks to return to the win column after his eight-fight winning streak was snapped in his last appearance in September. Meanwhile, this is the first time we are seeing Misha Cirkunov (-135) since his first-round submission win over Jimmy Crute in September 2019.


Cirkunov: Need to Knows
  • Cirkunov burst into the UFC with four straight stoppage wins but kind of stalled out, dropping three of four fights when he climbed the rankings.
  • He is a finisher with just two of his 20 pro fights going the distance. Nine of his 15 wins have been submissions and he has four knockouts. He was stopped in all five of his losses.
  • Cirkunov throws heavy strikes on the feet but he is by far most dangerous when he gets a takedown. He averages 4.42 takedowns per 15 minutes but has a tendency to dip his head to level change, which leaves him open to uppercuts or knees.
  • Cirkunov’s last three fights were Patrick Cummins (win – submission), Johnny Walker (loss – knockout) and Jimmy Crute (win – submission).


Spann: Need to Knows
  • After earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, Superman won four fights in a row in the Octagon, with two stoppages, before his first loss in the promotion.
  • Spann has great submission skills with 11 of his 18 pro wins coming in that manner. Half of his six pro losses have come by knockout, including his last outing in September.
  • He is a big strong light heavyweight, typically stalking forward throwing long straight punches, but he has no head movement, leaving him vulnerable to counters. However, his main mission is to get into a grappling exchange and work toward a submission.
  • Superman doesn’t have the best takedowns, usually pressing his foes against the cage and trying to muscle them down. Additionally, he only stuffs 60 percent of attempts against, though his strong guillotine keeps his opponents at bay and wary of shooting in.
  • Spann’s last three fights were Devin Clark (win – submission), Sam Alvey (win – split decision) and Johnny Walker (loss – knockout).

Prediction: Misha Cirkunov (-135) via submission

Dan Ige vs Gavin Tucker Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Dan Ige-155
Gavin Tucker+125

Dan “50K” Ige (-155) had won six fights in a row before his unanimous-decision loss to Calvin Kattar last July and he hopes to return to the win column in this bout. Having already made a rebound after a loss is Gavin “Guv’nor” Tucker (+125), who suffered his first pro defeat in 2017, took nearly two years off and is now on a three-fight winning streak.


Ige: Need to Knows
  • After winning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2017, Ige dropped his debut before jumping on that six-fight winning streak. He has three knockout and five submission wins on his record while all three of his losses have been by decision.
  • 50K mixes up his attack pretty well, averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.36. He also averages 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes even though he hits only 27 percent of his attempts.
  • Ige has great footwork and is quite fast. Nearly every time he decides to throw, he fires combinations rather than one strike at a time. Some of his strikes can be telegraphed when he’s standing orthodox. He keeps his right hand glued to the side of his face so when he drops it before throwing, his left hand is usually a counter jab or a hook.
  • He is most dangerous when he blitzes forward with his combinations, but he does tend to stop after landing a couple of strikes and is caught in the pocket doing no work, which is dangerous if his opponent counters.
  • Ige’s last three fights were Mirsad Bektic (win – split decision), Edson Barboza (win – split decision) and Calvin Kattar (loss – unanimous decision).


Tucker: Need to Knows
  • That aforementioned loss Tucker suffered in 2017 was quite simply an ass-kicking as he was outstruck 142-23, was taken down four times and dropped once. Since his return, though, he has outstruck all three of his opponents and landed 13 combined takedowns.
  • Of Guv’nor’s 13 pro wins, 10 have been stoppages with four knockouts and six submissions. He averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is almost a necessity as he has just a 66-inch reach.
  • With his short reach, he doesn’t typically help himself out, usually throwing looping hooks. However, he does this in hopes of closing distance so he can do damage in the clinch or get a takedown. Tucker has good kicks at long range and really good cardio.
  • Tucker’s last three fights were Seung Woo Choi (win – submission), Justin Jaynes (win – submission) and Billy Quarantillo (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Gavin Tucker (+125) via decision

Jonathan Martinez vs Davey Grant Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Jonathan Martinez-325
Davey Grant+250

A two-fight winning streak will come to an end for one of these men. Following a split-decision loss in early 2020, Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez (-325) rebounded to close out 2020 with back-to-back wins. Meanwhile, Davey “Dangerous” Grant (+250) has fought just once a year over the last three years and has won his last two appearances.


Martinez: Need to Knows
  • A pair of decision losses are the only thing separating Martinez from a perfect 6-0 UFC record. He lost his debut to Andre Soukhamthath and opened 2020 with a split-decision defeat to Andre Ewell.
  • Nine of Dragon’s 13 pro wins have been stoppages with seven knockouts and two submissions. Two of his three losses were decisions and one was a disqualification.
  • Martinez doesn’t have a ton of movement but can fire quicks very fast and mixes them up effectively. After absorbing several kicks, his opponents look to close the distance and he greets them with a stiff accurate jab.
  • Martinez’s last three fights were Andre Ewell (loss – split decision), Frankie Saenz (win – knockout) and Thomas Almeida (win – unanimous decision).


Grant: Need to Knows
  • It was a bit of a rough start for Grant in the UFC, dropping three of his first four fights, but he finally finds himself on a winning streak. He had won eight in a row prior to the UFC, all stoppages and seven of them submissions.
  • Of Grant’s 12 pro wins, 10 have been stoppages with two knockouts and eight submissions, though, he has just one stoppage over the last eight years and it came in his last fight. All four of his pro losses have been submissions.
  • Dangerous covers ground fairly quickly and he uses his kicks early and often. He has decent punches as well, but after his jab he tends to load up on strikes that can be countered. His main approach is grappling, though, with 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes.
  • Grant’s last three fights were Manny Bermudez (loss – submission), Grigory Popov (win – split decision) and Martin Day (win – knockout).

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez (-325) via knockout

Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Manel Kape-140
Matheus Nicolau+110

It was not the debut that Manel “StarBoy” Kape (-140) was looking for, losing a decision that snapped his three-fight winning streak. This fight will mark the return of Matheus Nicolau (+110), who was cut from the UFC in 2018 but landed back in the promotion after two victories in 2019.


Kape: Need to Knows
  • Kape is the former Rizin FF bantamweight champion and had three straight knockout wins in 2019 before making his UFC debut just over a month ago. Of his 15 pro wins, 14 have been stoppages with nine knockouts and five submissions. Two of his five losses are by submission.
  • StarBoy’s debut wasn’t a bad performance – he just didn’t throw any strikes. He was extremely accurate and powerful against Alexandre Pantoja but was showboating his successes rather than looking to inflict more damage.
  • He is extremely fast defensively and offensively, slipping out of danger while also having crisp accurate strikes when he throws. Nearly every punch he threw in his debut was fast and straight, while he also mixed in two takedowns. He needs to throw strikes and if he does, he can easily win, but if he dances and shows off, he’ll lose again.
  • Kape’s last three fights were Takeya Mizugaki (win – knockout), Kai Asakura (win – knockout) and Alexandre Pantoja (loss – unanimous decision).


Nicolau: Need to Knows
  • Although he was cut from the UFC, he had a strong record in his brief stay. He was 3-1 with a submission but his knockout loss to Dustin Ortiz led to his pink slip. At that time, in 2018, it appeared the UFC was looking to get rid of the flyweight division and he was a casualty.
  • Nine of his 15 pro wins have been stoppages with four knockouts and five submissions, while his only two defeats were by knockout.
  • He has really good low kicks and explosive fast hands as well. He catches people by surprise by closing distance rapidly with his big left hook. That speed allows him to be very elusive as well – his opponents miss 70 percent of their strike attempts.
  • Nicolau’s last three fights were Dustin Ortiz (loss – knockout), Alan Gabriel dos Santos (win – submission) and Felipe Efrain (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Matheus Nicolau (+110) via decision

Eryk Anders vs Darren Stewart Odds & Prediction

FighterOdds
Eryk Anders+150
Darren Stewart-185

Two fighters coming off defeats will open up our main card. Darren “The Dentist” Stewart (-185) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak in his last four, most recently losing a split decision to Kevin Holland in September. Eryk “Ya Boi” Anders (+150), meanwhile, had won two in a row before his decision loss last May.


Anders: Need to Knows
  • Ya Boi emerged from a three-fight losing skid to win back-to-back fights in the back half of 2019 but returned to the loss column in his lone appearance of 2020.
  • Nine of his 13 pro wins have been stoppages with eight knockouts and one submission, while four of his five defeats have been decisions.
  • The former Alabama linebacker is a big powerful fighter but doesn’t have a ton of speed or footwork. If you stand in front of him, you may be in big trouble as he has legit power, but he can be picked apart by guys with speed and footwork.
  • Anders’ last three fights were Vinicius Moreira (win – knockout), Gerald Meerschaert (win – split decision) and Krzysztof Jotko (loss – unanimous decision).


Stewart: Need to Knows
  • Following a bad start to his UFC career in which he went 0-3 with a no contest, Stewart has turned things around, going 5-3 with all three losses being decisions, two of them split.
  • Eight of the Dentist’s 12 pro wins have been finishes with seven knockouts and one submission, while four of his six losses have been decisions.
  • Stewart stays within himself well with really tight boxing fundamentals, working behind his jab and following up with powerful hooks. He’s added a nice leg kick to his arsenal to help slow down his opponents’ movements as he doesn’t have a ton of lateral movement, using head movement to avoid damage rather than his feet.
  • Stewart’s last three fights were Bartosz Fabinski (loss – unanimous decision), Maki Pitolo (win – submission) and Kevin Holland (loss – split decision).

Prediction: Darren Stewart (-185) via decision

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Muhammad Best Bets

FighterOdds
Welterweight – Leon Edwards-270
Light Heavyweight – Misha Cirkunov-135
Featherweight – Gavin Tucker+125
Featherweight – Jonathan Martinez-325
Flyweight – Matheus Nicolau+110
Middleweight – Darren Stewart-185