Alexa Grasso (left) is favored in the Grasso vs Araujo odds

Grasso vs Araujo Odds & Picks: The Mexican Favored In Main Event

For the second straight event, two women will headline a UFC card, this time from the flyweight division. On October 15, we’ll see a showdown between Alexa Grasso (14-3) and Viviane Araujo (11-3). Grasso, ranked fifth, and Araujo, ranked sixth, will compete in a five-round bout at the Apex in Las Vegas.

UFC Vegas 61 will begin with prelim fights at 4 p.m. ET with the main card slated for 7 p.m. Grasso is currently the -230 favorite in the Grasso vs Araujo odds. 

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Grasso vs Araujo Betting Notes

Women’s flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko has a firm grip on the belt, but there’s some parity among the top contenders underneath her. That’s why this Grasso-Araujo matchup has such high stakes. It’s also why the UFC has rescheduled this bout three times in 2022.

Grasso is largely a standup fighter, but she secured her first UFC stoppage win at UFC on ESPN 33 in March, submitting Joanne Wood via rear-naked choke. A six-year company veteran, Grasso holds a 6-3 UFC record that includes five decision wins, two decision losses and one loss via submission. 

The Brazilian Araujo has a deep jiu-jitsu background. She won her UFC debut in 2019 via third-round TKO but has yet to finish a fight since then, working to a 4-2 record with all bouts settled by the judges. 

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Odds

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Sportsbook lists Grasso as the -200 favorite and Araujo as the +180 underdog. The largest underdog on the card is Mike Jackson (+475), who faces Pete Rodriguez (-800) in a prelim welterweight bout.

The tightest odds can be found at the start of the main card in an exciting welterweight fight between Neil Magny (-130) and Daniel Rodriguez (EVEN).

Hoping to make some money on the Grasso vs Araujo odds but don’t know how to do it? No worries! Check out our How to Bet on UFC guide to get in on all the action. Also, feel free to visit our many UFC betting sites and our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Betting Lines And Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Women’s Flyweight – Alexa Grasso (-230) vs Viviane Araujo (+180)
  • Light Heavyweight – Alonzo Menifield (-210) vs Misha Cirkunov (+171)
  • Bantamweight – Jon Martinez (-225) vs Cub Swanson (+160)
  • Flyweight – Askar Askarov (-230) vs Brandon Royval (+180)
  • Welterweight – Neil Magny (-130) vs Daniel Rodriguez (EVEN)
  • Prelims
  • Women’s Strawweight – Piera Rodriguez (-174) vs Sam Hughes (+135)
  • Flyweight – Tatsuro Taira (-275) vs CJ Vergara (+220)
  • Bantamweight – Leomana Martinez (-155) vs Brandon Davis (+130)
  • Welterweight – Pete Rodriguez (-800) vs Mike Jackson (+475)
  • Bantamweight – Raphael Assuncao (+305) vs Victor Henry (-425)
  • Middleweight – Nick Maximov (-130) vs Jacob Malkoun (+110)
  • Middleweight – Dusko Todorovic (-220) vs Jordan Wright (+174)

Odds as of October 15 at Sportsbook

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Araujo Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: October 15, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Alexa Grasso vs Viviane Araujo Odds & Pick

Alexa Grasso-230
Viviane Araujo+180


-230 isn’t the most chalk Grasso’s seen in her career. In fact, she’s been the favorite for eight of her nine UFC fights (6-2 record as the fave) with her only fight as the underdog (+450 vs Tatiana Suarez) resulting in a submission loss. 

Araujo hasn’t been this steep an underdog since her UFC debut, where she shocked everyone with a clean knockout win. There’s not a ton to learn from reading into Araujo’s odds. The 35-year-old is 3-1 as the favorite and 1-1 as a UFC underdog. 

Looking at the Grasso vs Araujo odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Grasso’s -200 status gives her an implied win probability of 69.70 percent. Araujo’s +180 odds represent an implied win probability of 35.71 percent. That means a successful $10 bet on the favorite pays out $14.35, while the same wager on the underdog pays $28.

Grasso: Need to Knows
  • Like a lot of Mexican fighters, Grasso holds a high, tight guard. Her movements are compact as she bounces on her feet like a traditional boxer. The 29-year-old is a patient fighter who likes to fire straight shots down the pipe when her opponent lunges in. She’s not known for power – she only recently moved up from strawweight – but her strikes are crisp and often hit her opponent’s chin before they can answer back. 
  • You can’t sleep on Grasso’s ground game either. She’s no BJJ expert like Araujo, but her transitions are slick. Against Maycee Barber at UFC 258, she slipped out of bottom position with an armbar attempt and then took Barber’s back after an arm triangle. At UFC Columbus, Grasso outfought Wood on the feet and used a spontaneous trip takedown to secure the back and lock up a first-round RNC. Don’t expect Araujo just to crush Grasso on the ground. This gal can wrestle with the best. 
  • Grasso’s last three fights have come against Wood (win – submission), Barber (win – unanimous decision) and Ji Yeon Kim (win – unanimous decision).
Araujo: Need to Knows
  • Viviane is a giant ball of energy in the Octagon, constantly moving and darting in and out. Araujo is quick; she’ll position-switch and fire kicks to the body with relentless pressure. In her debut vs Talita Bernardo, Araujo used her wild strikes early, but found success later with dramatic feints, then repeated overhand rights that folded her opponent. Her striking style has become more nuanced since then, although it’s still reliant on energy and pressure.
  • There will be jiu-jitsu exchanges in this fight, but striking defense should be a difference-maker, especially on Grasso’s end. Araujo is wild and Grasso is a calm, guarded counterpuncher. UFC commentators have pointed out that the Brazilian’s tendency to step toward her opponent exposes her to nasty low-kick counters. Grasso should be smart enough to take advantage. There’s also the element of the takedown entry, where we’ve seen Araujo attack opponents at the end of their haymaking hook shots. Grasso is a short-punch machine, which could limit the Brazilian’s window to enter for takedowns. 
  • Araujo’s last three fights came against Andrea Lee (win – unanimous decision), Katlyn Chookagian (loss – unanimous decision) and Roxanne Modafferi (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Grasso (-230) by decision

Misha Cirkunov vs Alonzo Menifield Odds & Pick

Misha Cirkunov+171
Alonzo Menifield-210


The co-main event features a light heavyweight bout between Misha Cirkunov (15-8) and Alonzo Menifield (12-3).

Cirkunov: Need to Knows
  • Cirkunov is in the middle of a dreadful stretch. The Latvian has lost six of the last eight fights (five by stoppage) and, frankly, will be fighting for his spot on the UFC roster. As bettors, the only good we can pull from Cirkunov’s career is that he is a finish machine, on both the winning and losing end. Six of his last eight fights have ended in the first round. Against a powerhouse like Menifield, we see value in betting UNDER 1.5 Rounds at +105. 
  • Despite all his misfortune lately, Cirkunov has a solid submission game for the light heavyweight division. He knows his days as a striker are over, so it’s reasonable to expect him to shoot for takedowns. Against Jimmy Crute at UFC on ESPN 16, Cirkunov shot early and engaged on the mat for the entire first round. It was a messy fight with both guys taking a ton of damage, but Misha rolled into the guillotine, eventually flipping to a rare Peruvian necktie to tap out Crute. Watch for madness on the mat in his fight vs Menifield. 
  • Cirkunov’s last three fights have come against Wellington Turman (loss – submission), Krzysztof Jotko (loss – split decision) and Ryan Span (loss – technical knockout).
Menifield: Need to Knows
  • If the fight devolves into a ground-and-pound scramble, Menifield can handle himself. He’s big, he’s strong and in his last fight vs Askar Mozharov, “Atomic” secured the crucifix position and rained down elbows for a TKO stoppage. Considering Cirkunov loves to tangle himself up in odd positions, including the mounted crucifix, we think Menifield will be just fine.
  • Here’s the kicker, though. Menifield’s gas tank is terrible. The 34-year-old wields crazy power, but the stamina rarely holds up. If this fight goes past the first round, be sure to place a live bet on Cirkunov to win by finish. 
  • Menifield’s last three fights came against Mozharov (win – knockout), William Knight (loss – unanimous decision) and Ed Herman (win – unanimous decision).

Pick: Menifield (-230) by First-round KO/TKO

Askar Askarov vs Brandon Royval Odds & Pick

Askar Askarov-190
Brandon Royval+156


There’s a great fight hidden on the main card in this event, where flyweights Brandon Royval (14-6) and Askar Askarov (14-1-1) will duke it out for top contender status. 

Askarov: Need to Knows
  • The flyweight division isn’t terribly deep, but Askarov is right near the top. The Russian is ranked fourth, dropping a notch after his loss to Kai Kara-France at UFC Columbus that ended a three-fight win streak. Since he’s yet to have a fight finish inside the distance, there’s a good chance this bout goes the distance, though Royval has a penchant for inducing finishes, which we’ll get to in a minute. 
  • Askarov has rag-dolled opponents in the past, mashing talented fighters such as Joseph Benavidez, Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliot. “Bullet” loves using body locks and trip takedowns, but he’s also unafraid to be taken down himself, which frees up his surprisingly powerful head kicks. There’s a chance Askarov catches Royval with something heavy, but it seems far more likely the Russian just grinds it out for a full 15 minutes. With that in mind, it leaves plenty of time for Royval to get up to some trickery.
  • The Russian’s last three fights were against Kara-France (loss – unanimous decision), Benavidez (win – unanimous decision) and Pantoja (win – unanimous decision).
Royval: Need to Knows
  • Since entering the UFC, Royval has been nothing but fun at 125 pounds. The 30-year-old has six UFC fights, five of which have finished inside the distance. Royval is known for being especially active and extra creative with his striking and submissions. Nine of his 14 career wins have come via submission.
  • If Askarov is a perfect technical machine, then Royval is an unpredictable wild man. That contrast is much better for Royval, but this fight can unravel in two directions. If Askarov rises to meet Royval’s pace, that would seem to benefit the underdog as he’ll find avenues for spinning strikes and sub attempts, similar to how he clocked Kara-France at UFC 253. If Askarov stays calm, however, and survives the storm, then he’ll be much better-suited for a decision win, his favorite method of victory.
  • The Colorado native’s last three fights were against Matt Schnell (win – submission), Rogerio Bontorin (win – split decision) and Pantoja (loss – submission).

Pick: Royval (+156); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (EVEN)

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