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Nurmagomedov vs GSP Odds Analysis And Prediction

Khabib Nurmagomedov and Georges St. Pierre posing in photoshoots

There have been rumors swirling for more than a year about a potential superfight between reigning UFC lightweight champion Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov and arguably the greatest of all time, Georges “Rush” St-Pierre. Now, UFC president Dana White has hinted that this bout may be in the works following Nurmagomedov’s title defense against Justin Gaethje in October.

Along with White’s comments that he’s open to the fight after many times shutting it down, Nurmagomedov gave us some potential insight on when this fight could occur by commenting on a Joe Rogan Instagram post on the announcement of Nurmagomedov/Gaethje.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has released odds for this potential fight with the current lightweight champ, Nurmagomedov, as a sizable -250 favorite and the former welterweight and middleweight champ, St-Pierre, coming back as a +210 underdog. This would be a retirement fight for Nurmagomedov as he has two fights remaining on his contract and it appears those opponents will be Gaethje and St-Pierre.

Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Georges St-Pierre Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Khabib Nurmagomedov-250
Georges St-Pierre+210

Odds as of July 29 at BetOnline

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Odds Analysis

This line doesn’t make any sense to me. Yes, Nurmagomedov has been a heavy favorite in each of his last 10 fights with an average line of -412.5, so that makes sense. However, he will be competing against one of the best ever in Georges St-Pierre, who hasn’t suffered a loss since 2007, a span of 13 fights.

In his last appearance, he won the middleweight title, and he’s now fighting at lightweight! GSP hasn’t been an underdog since he was a +115 dog in a rematch with Matt Hughes at UFC 65 in 2006, a bout he won via second-round knockout.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Nurmagomedov’s main attack is his grappling when he gets his hands on his opponents, drags them to the floor and smashes them. The Russia native has an aggressive ground and pound, looking for the finish in that manner, or will take advantage of a submission if it arises. His striking continues to improve, but he has been hurt a few times in striking exchanges. The Eagle has outstanding conditioning that allows him to bring the fight to the canvas late in the fight and still smash his foes.

As for the Canadian, St-Pierre, he also is an outstanding wrestler but also has strong striking. Rush had been the welterweight champion for six years, defending the belt 10 times, before taking four years off and returning to win the middleweight belt by submitting Michael Bisping in 2017. He has a tremendous jab that sets up heavier strikes or his double-leg takedown and he averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes.

GSP turned 39 in May, which could be a bit of a concern as Khabib doesn’t turn 32 until September. Age aside, though, the only fight in which Nurmagomedov was taken down more than his opponent was against Gleison Tibau in 2012 in a very close unanimous-decision victory. If this remains a striking match, the edge has to go to St-Pierre, but it will be very interesting to see if one can impose his wrestling skill over the other.

Prediction: Georges St-Pierre (+210) via decision