The two most recent middleweight title challengers are headlining this week’s UFC Fight Night. Marvin Vettori went the distance with Israel Adesanya in June, losing a decision, while Paulo Costa was stopped in his title fight last September.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, with the prelims beginning at 1 p.m. ET. Looking at Costa vs Vettori odds, it is the most recent title challenger, Marvin Vettori, who is the betting favorite.
Vettori has a record of 5-2 over his last seven fights, but those two defeats came to the man atop the division, Israel Adesanya. Even with a decisive victory in this bout, it’ll be hard to get the nod for a trilogy fight.
Prior to his own championship loss to Adesanya in September 2020, Costa had a perfect professional record of 13-0. He will look for an impressive win here to get a second shot at UFC gold.
Costa vs Vettori Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has the Costa vs Vettori odds and has set Marvin as the -200 chalk and Paulo as the +160 underdog. These odds mean that to profit $100 on a winning Vettori bet, you would have to wager $200, while a $100 winning ticket on Costa would profit you $160.
If you’re curious about how the odds translate to the chances of winning, our sports betting calculator can help you out. There you will see that Vettori’s -200 betting line represents an implied win probability of 66.67 percent while Costa’s odds have an implied win probability of 38.46 percent.
If you’re looking to take a swing on the biggest underdog in the UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori odds, there are two options as Rick Glenn is sitting as the heaviest underdog at +380, and David Onama is sitting as a +315 underdog in their respective bouts. Conversely, if you’re betting on the fight with the closest odds, Zviad Lazishvili is the ever-so-slight -115 chalk over Jonathan Martinez (-105)
Costa vs Vettori Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Middleweight – Paulo Costa (+160) vs Marvin Vettori (-200)
- Lightweight – Grant Dawson (-550) vs Rick Glenn (+380)
- Women’s Bantamweight – Jessica-Rose Clark (-170) vs Joselyne Edwards (+140)
- Featherweight – Alex Caceres (+230) vs Seung-Woo Choi (-290)
- Welterweight – Francisco Trinaldo (-140) vs Dwight Grant (+115)
- Light Heavyweight – Nicolae Negumereanu (-240) vs Ike Villanueva (+190)
- Prelims
- Middleweight – Jun Yong Park (+115) vs Gregory Rodrigues (-140)
- Lightweight -- Mason Jones (-425) vs David Onama (+315)
- Women’s Strawweight – Tabatha Ricci (-260) vs Maria Oliveira (+210)
- Middleweight – Jamie Pickett (+170) vs Laureano Staropoli (-210)
- Lightweight – Khama Worthy (+155) vs Jai Herbert (-190)
- Flyweight – Jeff Molina (-165) vs Daniel Lacerda (+135)
- Women’s Strawweight – Livinha Souza (-120) vs Randa Markos (EVEN)
- Bantamweight -- Jonathan Martinez (-105) vs Zviad Lazishvili (-115)
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- Date/Time: October 23, 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | +160 |
| Marvin Vettori | -200 |
It will be interesting to see how Paulo “Borrachinha” Costa (+160) rebounds from his first pro loss, especially when he was stopped in that defeat via knockout in the second round. Meanwhile, it wasn’t the first loss for Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori (-200) in his last outing and he’s gone on lengthy winning streaks following defeat in the past.
- As mentioned, Costa is coming off his first pro loss after compiling a perfect 13-0 record. Twelve of his victories have been stoppages, including 11 knockouts.
- Borrachinha, or “The Eraser,” has understandably earned that name given his big knockout power. However, he has a high output as well, averaging 7.03 significant strikes per minute while also absorbing 6.70. He hasn’t landed a single takedown through six UFC bouts while being brought to the floor only three times over that span.
- Costa uses an effective attack like many other UFC fighters, closing the distance and pressuring opponents but rarely throwing first. This draws out an attack that he will slip and counter heavily.
- This approach doesn’t work against a fast striker like Adesanya, who outstruck Costa 55-12 in their bout. With the big power, he will at times ignore his rear hand for defense and can be countered as well. That defense continues to lapse as he tires when the fight progresses.
- Costa’s last three fights were Uriah Hall (win – knockout), Yoel Romero (win – unanimous decision) and Israel Adesanya (loss – knockout).
- Vettori has been very busy lately with this being his seventh fight since the start of 2019, and he has lost only one of those contests. He is now 17-5-1 with each of his defeats going the distance, while 11 of his wins are finishes, nine by submission.
- The Italian Dream doesn’t have the power or the output that Costa does, but that doesn’t discount his conditioning. The southpaw averages 3.88 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.04.
- The difference-maker is takedowns. He averages 2.24 per 15 minutes, has landed 15 over his last two fights, and has secured at least one in eight of his 11 UFC bouts.
- He has also outstruck all but three of his UFC opponents (Adesanya twice and Kevin Holland). Vettori fights well behind his jab while maintaining distance, forcing his opponent to come forward when he will level change for a takedown.
- Vettori’s last three fights were Jack Hermansson (win – unanimous decision), Kevin Holland (win – unanimous decision) and Israel Adesanya (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Marvin Vettori (-200) via submission
Grant Dawson vs Rick Glenn Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | -550 |
| Rick Glenn | +380 |
Grant “KGD” Dawson (-550) returns to the cage for the second time since March looking to extend his eight-fight winning streak. Rick “The Gladiator” Glenn (+380) is aiming to start a winning streak of his own after going on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last five fights.
- Dawson earned a UFC contract on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in 2017 and has been winning ever since. He now holds a 17-1 record with the one loss being a knockout. Fifteen of his wins have been finishes, including 11 submissions.
- KGD’s stats are impressive thus far. He has out-struck each of his six UFC opponents while also landing at least one takedown in those fights as well. Overall, he averages 3.40 significant strikes per minute, absorbing 2.10.
- With 11 submissions on his record, it should come as no surprise that he averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes as well. He tends to load up on strikes on the feet, which can easily be dodged, but if he gets his hands on his foes, they are typically going to the floor.
- Dawson’s last three fights were Darrick Minner (win – submission), Nad Narimani (win – unanimous decision), and Leonardo Santos (win – knockout).
- Glenn has struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, sporting a 4-3 record in the UFC. Overall, though, he has a 22-6-1 record with two submission losses and 16 stoppage victories, 12 by knockout.
- The southpaw picked up his first finish victory in the UFC in his last outing in June, with six prior fights going the distance. The Gladiator averages 4.39 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 4.27.
- Takedown defense has been an issue in the past, as he has stuffed only 66 percent of takedown attempts and was brought to the canvas 11 times in his first five UFC bouts. He has good kicks and typically follows up with crisp, accurate left hands.
- Glenn’s last three fights were Dennis Bermudez (win – split decision), Kevin Aguilar (loss – unanimous decision), and Joaquim Silva (win – knockout).
Prediction: Grant Dawson (-425) via decision
Jessica-Rose Clark vs Joselyne Edwards Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jessica-Rose Clark | -170 |
| Joselyne Edwards | +140 |
Following back-to-back losses, Jessica-Rose Clark (-170) returned to the win column in a big way last September and looks to build on that over a year later. On the other side, Joselyne “La Pantara” Edwards (+140) hopes to rebound from her first UFC defeat in February.
- Clark has been inactive for over a year after tearing her ACL in her knockout win last September. Her record is 10-6 with one no contest; each of her losses have been decisions while half of her wins are finishes (three knockouts, two submissions.)
- The Australia native has a high output of 4.68 significant strikes per minute, absorbing 3.98, and she makes her opponents miss 60 percent of their strike attempts. She also landed at least one takedown in her three UFC wins, while failing to secure one in her two losses.
- She is aggressive, always marching forward and looking to get into a heated exchange. Clark has good counters and cuts off the cage really well, suffocating her foes. Her kicks at long range open opportunities for her straight right.
- Clark’s last three fights were Jessica Eye (loss – unanimous decision), Pannie Kianzad (loss – unanimous decision) and Sarah Alpar (win – knockout).
- Edwards had been on a tear leading to her UFC contract, winning nine of 10 fights with the only loss over that time being a split decision. She stands 10-3 with eight stoppages, five by knockout.
- La Pantera has struggled in the takedown department, defending only 37 percent of attempts against, and she was brought down five times in her two UFC bouts. Partly to blame is her flat-footed approach on the feet, which doesn’t lead to fast hips to stuff a takedown.
- Although she plants her feet a lot, this leads to heavy counters, and her long 70-inch reach allows her to maintain distance with her jabs. Edwards does her best work when she’s on the attack and moving forward.
- Edwards’ last three fights were Pamela Gonzalez (win – knockout), Yanan Wu (win – unanimous decision) and Karol Rosa (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Jessica-Rose Clark (-170) via decision
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Alex Caceres vs Seung-Woo Choi Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Caceres | +230 |
| Seung-Woo Choi | -290 |
On his longest winning streak in the UFC since he debuted in 2011, Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres (+230) eyes a fifth win in a row. Also on a winning streak is Seung-Woo “Sting” Choi (-290), who has picked up three straight wins since dropping his first two in the Octagon.
- Caceres was on The Ultimate Fighter Season 12 which aired in 2010 and made his official debut in March 2011, with this being his 25th fight in the Octagon. His record sits at 18-12 with one no contest. Nine of his wins have been finishes, six by submission, while he’s also been submitted seven times.
- Bruce Leeroy is an elusive striker, averaging 4.10 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.82, and he makes his foes miss 65 percent of their attempts. At times, he will get caught up in being flashy rather than bringing the fight.
- The southpaw has a very wide stance that allows him to fade back out of range on his back foot, while also being able to be heavy on the front foot to throw long punches or kicks. He does a great job leaning backward and countering accurately while not being touched.
- Caceres’s last three fights were Chase Hooper (win – unanimous decision), Austin Springer (win – submission) and Kevin Croom (win – unanimous decision).
- Choi appears to be settling into the UFC, picking up his first stoppage win in the Octagon back in June. Overall, he’s 10-3 with six knockout wins while his three losses have come by knockout, submission and decision.
- While Caceres is long for the featherweight division with a 73-inch reach, Sting has another inch on him at 74. He has a lower output, though, at 3.31 significant strikes per minute, but with more power.
- The orthodox fighter bounces lightly on his feet but the moment his opponent takes a step into his range, he plants his feet and fires a powerful right hand. When he lands, he quickly follows up with a left hook. His fight IQ is very high and he mixes up his strikes according to his opponents’ movements.
- Choi’s last three fights were Suman Mokhtarian (win – unanimous decision), Youssef Zalal (win – unanimous decision) and Julian Erosa (win – knockout).
Prediction: Seung-Woo Choi (-290) via decision
Francisco Trinaldo vs Dwight Grant Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Francisco Trinaldo | -140 |
| Dwight Grant | +115 |
Francisco “Massaranduba” Trinaldo (-140) had his three-fight winning streak snapped in his welterweight debut back in June. Looking to slap a second straight loss on Trinaldo’s record is Dwight “The Body Snatcher” Grant (+115), who earned a split-decision win in his last outing in April.
- Age doesn’t mean a thing for the 43-year-old Trinaldo, who was on a three-fight winning streak from 2019 to 2020. He holds a 26-8 record with three submission losses and 14 finish victories, nine by knockout.
- The southpaw is a tricky fighter who averages just 3.08 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.64. He also mixes in about one takedown every 15 minutes.
- Massaranduba can be frustrating as he doesn’t have a high output and rarely puts himself in dangerous positions. Typically, he keeps his guard high and then all of a sudden he will explode forward with his powerful left hand.
- Trinaldo’s last three fights were John Makdessi (win – unanimous decision), Jai Herbert (win – knockout) and Muslim Salikhov (loss – unanimous decision).
- Grant earned his way to the UFC with a knockout win in his Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series appearance in 2018. He is now 11-3 with seven knockout wins while losing once in the same manner.
- At 37, the Body Snatcher has also been around for a long time and while he has seven knockout wins on his record, only one of his three wins in the UFC has come in that manner.
- He has a sneaky lead left hook that he follows up with a powerful straight right. Grant is patient, often picking away with leg kicks and looking to explode when his foes enter his range. With a 76-inch reach, he’s very difficult to close the distance on.
- Grant’s last three fights were Alan Jouban (win – split decision), Daniel Rodriguez (loss – knockout) and Stefan Sekulic (win – split decision).
Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo (-140) via decision
Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ike Villanueva Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nicolae Negumereanu | -240 |
| Ike Villanueva | +190 |
Following a loss in his UFC debut, Nicolae Negumereanu (-240) returned to the win column in his second outing in June of this year. He will look for a second in a row as he collides with “Hurricane” Ike Villanueva (+190), who is 1-1 in 2021 with both fights ending in a knockout.
- Negumereanu had a perfect record before getting signed by the UFC and is now 1-1 in the promotion. He carries a 10-1 record with nine stoppage victories (six knockouts, three submissions).
- He has been a bit of a punching bag in his two UFC fights, landing 2.73 significant strikes per minute but absorbing 5.73. Negumereanu has little to no head movement, rather marching forward into the pocket looking to take a shot to land one of his own.
- There’s no doubt he has power in his hands with 60 percent of his wins coming by knockout but defensively he’s a bit of a disaster. He stands square to his foes and is very flat-footed. All that said, he has a great chin and is dangerous in the pocket.
- Negumereanu’s last three fights were Dan Konecke (win – submission), Saparbek Safarov (loss – unanimous decision) and Aleksa Camur (loss – split decision).
- It has been tough sledding for Villanueva after getting a UFC contract on the heels of four straight knockout wins. He’s 1-3 in the Octagon with all four fights ending in a knockout. He is 18-12 with 15 knockout wins and 11 of his defeats are by stoppage (six knockouts, five submissions).
- Hurricane Ike has been out-struck in three of his four fights with none of those bouts going past the first minute of the second round. He lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.88.
- He walks forward, cutting off the cage well as he looks to get into a brawl. It’s clear he has big power in his hands, but he has a bad tendency to miss a strike and stand in the pocket with his defense down, putting himself on the receiving end of big strikes.
- Villanueva’s last three fights were Jordan Wright (loss – knockout), Vinicius Moreira (win – knockout) and Marcin Prachnio (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Ike Villanueva (+190) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs Vettori Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Middleweight – Marvin Vettori | -200 |
| Lightweight – Grant Dawson | -550 |
| Women’s Bantamweight – Jessica-Rose Clark | -170 |
| Featherweight – Seung-Woo Choi | -290 |
| Welterweight – Francisco Trinaldo | -140 |
| Light Heavyweight – Ike Villanueva | +190 |
