Fan favorite Paddy Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) will return to the Octagon vs Jared Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC) in an exciting lightweight bout scheduled for December 10.
The bout, which will take place on the main card at UFC 282 in Las Vegas, represents a significant step up in competition for “Paddy The Baddy,” who has dispatched his previous UFC opponents with ease (2 SUB, 1 KO).
The early Pimblett vs Gordon odds by Sportsbook have the Englishman as the -285 favorite.
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon Betting Odds
Odds as of December 9 at Sportsbook
Our odds calculator suggests Pimblett’s -285 status equates to an implied win probability of 74.03 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $13.51. Gordon’s +225 underdog status gives him an implied win probability of 30.77 percent, and a $10 bet on him pays out $32.25.
For more information on how to interpret these numbers, including the Pimblett vs Gordon odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our many UFC betting sites, as well as our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon. Don’t forget our breakdown of the fight headlining UFC 282 between Glover Teixeira and Jiri Prochazka.
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon Betting Odds Analysis
Pimblett’s rise as a UFC celebrity comes largely as a result of his enthusiastic personality, but the Liverpool native has also earned fans by dominating inside the Octagon. None of Pimblett’s three fights have gone past the second round, though that’s largely due to talent mismatches that have warmed the 27-year-old up for better competition. Paddy has been favored in each of his UFC fights (-265 vs Jordan Leavitt, -640 vs Rodrigo Vargas and -155 vs Luigi Vendramini).
Gordon, on the other hand, has turned around a bumpy start to his UFC career. The 34-year-old has been the underdog in three of his last four bouts. While “Flash” has plenty of experience in challenging bouts, he’s just 2-2 as the underdog in the UFC.
Pimblett vs Gordon Preview: Paddy’s Submission Game Will Be X Factor
Paddy The Baddy is among the UFC’s brightest young stars. He entered the promotion with a bang, knocking out his first opponent with vicious hooks and proving himself as a solid striker. Since then, though, it’s been all grappling for the Englishman.
Pimblett, like Gordon, is strong on the feet, but the 27-year-old is excellent in ground exchanges, especially once he gets back mount. He climbed all over Jordan Leavitt at UFC London, and while both fighters were quite tired, Pimblett had the will to lock down the body triangle and squeeze for a rear-naked choke. There’s definitely an avenue where Pimblett can knock Gordon down and secure a submission.
Gordon Won’t Shy Away From Pressure
Gordon is a stubborn, confident dude. That attitude has carried him to the UFC, but it has also bitten him on multiple occasions. Charles Oliveira — who like Paddy is a lightweight with excellent jiu-jitsu — fought Gordon at UFC on ESPN 22, ducked the American’s pressure and put him out cold with a right hand and then a tight uppercut.
Pimblett will have a five-inch reach advantage over the shorter Gordon, meaning Flash will have to be aggressive to work his way in tight. That heavy-pressure strategy will also help Gordon limit the distance Paddy has for a takedown. It will also guarantee some spicy striking exchanges where Pimblett will need to throw defensive counterpunches.
Pimblett vs Gordon Betting Pick
Long story short, Gordon’s reach disadvantage and his knack for pressuring opponents should result in a finish. Unfortunately for him, we think Pimblett will do the finishing.
Gordon has shown a bit of vulnerability to submissions in his career, but since Pimblett is a complete fighter, capable of putting guys out with hooks, knees and elbows, the safest bet is on Paddy to finish inside the distance (odds TBD). We also think it’ll be a very short fight, so there’s some logic for betting the UNDER 1.5 rounds or UNDER 2.5 rounds (odds TBD).