After several thrilling pay-per-view events, the UFC will host another intriguing main event on November 19 when heavyweights Derrick Lewis (26-10, 17-8 UFC) and Sergey Spivak (15-3, 6-3 UFC) square off.
The five-round bout will headline the UFC Vegas 65 card at the Apex in Las Vegas. Prelim fights begin at 1 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m.
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The Moldovan is the chalk in the Spivak vs Lewis odds, opening as a -200 favorite at Bodog. Lewis is the +164 underdog.
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This fight doesn’t hold much weight beyond being a deadly showdown between two big boys. Spivak, ranked 12th at heavyweight, has a little more to gain from a victory than Lewis, ranked seventh, but a win by either fighter doesn’t take them any closer to a title shot.
“The Black Beast” is coming off a stretch of knockout losses. Lewis, 37, has lost three of his last four fights in stoppage defeats vs Sergei Pavlovich, Tai Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane. Lewis has fought some stiff competition, which explains why he’s been the underdog in four of his last five fights. He’ll carry hearty dog status into his bout vs Spivak.
While Lewis has fallen, Spivak has risen. The 27-year-old has consecutive stoppage victories over Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy, cashing as a moderate underdog in both instances. He’ll boast a similarly moderate chalk status vs Lewis on Saturday.
UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Odds
Bodog lists Spivak as the -200 favorite, while Lewis comes in as the +164 underdog.
The tightest odds of the card can be found in a main-card welterweight fight between Andre Fialho (-110) and Muslim Salikhov (-110).
Danny Roberts (+460) is the biggest underdog on the card in his welterweight bout vs Jack Della Maddalena (-750).
UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Betting Odds & Fight Card UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Odds Main Card Heavyweight – Sergey Spivak (-200) vs Derrick Lewis (+164) Light Heavyweight – Ion Cutelaba (+140) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (-174) Heavyweight – Chase Sherman (+190) vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-240) Welterweight – Muslim Salikhov (-110) vs Andre Fialho (-110) Welterweight – Jack Dell Maddalena (-750) vs Danny Roberts (+460) Prelims Flyweight – Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+135) vs Charles Johnson (-165) Women’s Flyweight – Jennifer Maia (+152) vs Maryana Moroz (-186) Bantamweight – Miles Johns (-176) vs Vince Morales (+143) Bantamweight – Ricky Turcios (-165) vs Kevin Natividad (+135) Women’s Strawweight – Maria Oliveira (-105) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (-109) Bantamweight – Fernie Garcia (+145) vs Brady Hiestand (-179) Women’s Flyweight – Natalia Silva (-170) vs Tereza Vleda (+136)
Odds as of November 19 at Bodog
UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Broadcast Information Date/Time: November 19, 1 p.m. ET Location: Las Vegas, Nevada Arena: UFC Apex Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider Sergey Spivak vs Derrick Lewis Odds & Pick
Fighter Odds Sergey Spivak -200 Derrick Lewis +164
odds calculator tells us Spivak’s -200 status represents an implied win probability of 66.67 percent, meaning a $10 bet pays out $15. Lewis’ +161 status gives him an implied win probability of 38.31 percent, which means a $10 bet on him pays out $26.10. Lewis: Need to Knows Lewis is one of the most hilarious fighters on the roster, both for his lighthearted personality and his attitude in the Octagon. The 37-year-old loves to get in barroom brawls, swinging wildly, often without technique, until either he or his opponent hits the mat. Sometimes that strategy works in his favor (see his wild KO over Curtis Blaydes), but sometimes it stings him (see his KO loss to Tai Tuivasa). Lewis will be aggressive again Saturday, leaving it up to Spivak to drag this fight to the ground or risk tussling with the heavyweight division’s all-time best knockout artist. There’s no chance this fight goes the distance. Since Lewis is such a fan favorite, he often headlines Fight Night events. In his nine career five-round fights, the Black Beast is 5-4, with not one of those fights reaching the fifth round. In fact, of those nine headlining fights, the UNDER 1.5 rounds has hit five times. Spivak’s last three fights have all gone UNDER 2.5 rounds. Someone is getting finished – it’s just a matter of calculating when that happens. The Texas native’s last three fights have come against Sergei Pavlovich (loss – technical knockout), Tuivasa (loss – knockout) and Chris Daukaus (win – knockout). Spivak: Need to Knows Spivak’s boxing has improved as he’s racked up more UFC experience, but his roots exist as a mauler/wrestler. The 27-year-old is best in tight, either in the clinch or up against the fence, where he can use a trip takedown to initiate ground and pound. While Lewis is a slippery wrestler in his own right, Spivak will have a significant grappling advantage. If the Polar Bear can lean on Lewis and tire him out, the door is open for a pummel victory. The Moldovan has a 5-1 UFC record as the favorite. In fights where Spivak is favored, the OVER 2.5 rounds total is 3-3, with all three of the OVERs coming in three-round decisions. With Saturday being Spivak’s first bout as a headliner and Lewis’ reputation for KOs, the UNDER 1.5 seems like the way to go. Spivak’s last three fights were against Augusto Sakai (win – technical knockout), Greg Hardy (win – technical knockout) and Tom Aspinall (loss – technical knockout). Pick: Lewis by KO/TKO (+165); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-115) Ion Cutelaba vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Odds & Pick
Fighter Odds Ion Cutelaba +140 Kennedy Nzechukwu -174
The co-main event on Saturday features light heavyweights Ion Cutelaba (16-8-1, 5-7 UFC) and Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3, 4-3 UFC).
Nzechukwu: Need to Knows A Dana White’s Contender Series product, Nzechukwu has demonstrated a flair for dramatic finishes, as well as intense durability, making him a unique light heavyweight. The 30-year-old’s 4-3 UFC record is uninspiring, but some of his knockout finishes have been spectacular. Nzechukwu’s KO win over Carlos Ulberg at UFC 259 exemplifies everything the Nigerian is good at – he took a beating for four straight minutes, but protected himself well and attacked when his opponent got tired. Three of Nzechukwu’s four UFC victories have come via knockout. He’s also lost twice by stoppage. That said, there’s a solid trend to latch onto. Nzechukwu’s last five fights have gone UNDER 2.5 total rounds, leaving us with a clear avenue to profit off his knack for inducing stoppages. When we look across the Octagon at his opponent, Cutelaba, who’s been finished in four of his last six fights, it’s easy to understand Nzechukwu’s chalk status. Nzechukwu’s last three fights have come against Karl Roberson (win – technical knockout), Nicolae Negumereanu (loss – split decision) and Da Un Jung (loss – technical knockout). Cutelaba: Need to Knows “The Hulk” has become a fan favorite over the years for his boisterous personality and unpredictable mannerisms outside the Octagon, but his performance inside the cage hasn’t backed up all the energy surrounding him. Cutelaba has been on a long skid, losing five of his last eight bouts, all by stoppage. In his last fight vs Johnny Walker at UFC 279, Cutelaba scored an excellent takedown early but lost the position and found himself on the receiving end of a nasty choke. It doesn’t look like there’s much left in the tank for Cutelaba, who now faces a dangerous opponent in Nzechukwu, who holds a massive eight-inch reach advantage. Since Cutelaba joined the UFC in 2017, the UNDER 1.5 rounds in his fights is 7-6, with three of those OVERs coming in his first three fights. For better or worse, Cutelaba induces violent finishes. In a war vs a heavy hitter like Nzechukwu, it’s worth wagering on the UNDER 1.5 rounds (odds TBD). Cutelaba’s last three fights have come against Walker (loss – submission), Ryan Spann (loss – submission) and Devin Clark (win – unanimous decision). Pick: Nzechukwu by KO/TKO (+110); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-105) Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds & Pick
Fighter Odds Chase Sherman +190 Waldo Cortes-Acosta -240
The battle of the big lads continues as heavyweights Chase Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC) and Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC) will slug it out on the main card.
Cortes-Acosta: Need to Knows Cortes-Acosta is relatively new to MMA, having transitioned from boxing to cage fighting in 2021. That said, the 31-year-old has proven himself, especially in the latest season of the Contender Series, where he punched out Danilo Suzart for a first-round knockout. In that bout, Cortes-Acosta showed off some good boxing chops, landing to the head and body, but struggled a bit with movement, sometimes backing himself against the cage for no reason. “Salsa Boy” appears to have solid cardio, too, as his UFC debut, a decision victory over Jared Vanderaa, proved he could go the distance. Unlike some of the other fighters on this main card, Cortes-Acosta isn’t such a lock for an UNDER bet on total rounds. The Dominican-born heavyweight has seen three of his eight wins come via the judges’ scorecards. In fact, four of Cortes-Acosta’s last six fights have gone OVER 1.5 rounds. Keep that info in your back pocket when laying a bet on this fight. Cortes-Acosta’s last three fights have come against Vanderaa (win – unanimous decision), Suzart (win – technical knockout) and Thomas Peterson (win – technical knockout). Sherman: Need to Knows It seems like “The Vanilla Gorilla” is being sacrificed to the MMA gods in this one. While Sherman has improved since returning to the UFC in 2020, Cortes-Acosta is stronger, faster and has a much better chin. Sherman, however, has much more experience, meaning he might be smart enough to level-change and mix up his strategy if things go sideways. Watch for Sherman to make adjustments if Cortes-Acosta comes out heavy. Win or lose, 21 of Sherman’s 26 pro fights have ended inside the distance (80.8 percent), though it’s worth noting two of his five most recent fights have lasted the full 15 minutes. The Vanilla Gorilla has just one career decision victory, so while we don’t think this fight will end in the first round, the UNDER 2.5 rounds is still the way to go. Sherman’s last three fights have come against Vanderaa (win – technical knockout), Alexandr Romanov (loss – submission) and Jake Collier (loss – submission). Pick: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO (+105); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-210)