Derrick Lewis (right) is the underdog in the Spivak vs Lewis odds

Spivak vs Lewis Odds & Pick: The Black Beast Is A High-Upside Underdog

The UFC will host its second card of the year February 4 when heavyweights Derrick Lewis (26-10, 17-8 UFC) and Sergey Spivak (15-3, 6-3 UFC) square off in the main event. 

The five-round bout, which was originally supposed to happen in November, will headline the UFC Vegas 68 card at the Apex in Las Vegas. Since this event was initially slated for Korea, it’ll be a late start. Prelim fights begin at 10 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at midnight.

The Moldovan is the chalk in the Spivak vs Lewis odds at -230.

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Spivak vs Lewis Odds & Betting Notes

This fight doesn’t hold much weight beyond being a deadly showdown between two big boys. Spivak, ranked 12th at heavyweight, has a little more to gain from a victory than Lewis, ranked seventh, but a win by either fighter doesn’t take them any closer to a title shot. 

“The Black Beast” is coming off a stretch of knockout losses. Lewis, 37, has lost three of his last four fights in stoppage defeats vs Sergei Pavlovich, Tai Tuivasa and Ciryl Gane. Lewis has fought some stiff competition, which explains why he’s been the underdog in four of his last five fights. He’ll carry hearty dog status into his bout vs Spivak. 

While Lewis has fallen, Spivak has risen. The 27-year-old has consecutive stoppage victories over Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy, cashing as a moderate underdog in both instances. He’ll boast a similarly moderate chalk status vs Lewis on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Odds

The odds list Spivak as the -230 favorite, while Lewis comes in as the +195 underdog.

The tightest odds of the card can be found in a prelim lightweight fight between Anshul Jubli (-110) and Jeka Saragih (-110).

Jesus Santos Aguilar (+750) is the biggest underdog on the card in his flyweight bout vs Tatsuro Taira (-1400). 

UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Odds
  • Main Card
  • Heavyweight – Sergey Spivak (-230) vs Derrick Lewis (+195)
  • Light Heavyweight – Da Un Jung (-265) vs Devin Clark (+210)
  • Heavyweight – Marcin Tybura (-145) vs Blagoy Ivanov (+123)
  • Featherweight – Doo Hoo Choi (-200) vs Kyle Nelson (+167)
  • Welterweight – Yusaku Kinoshita (-335) vs Adam Fugitt (+255)
  • Prelims
  • Lightweight – Anshul Jubli (-110) vs Jeka Saragih (-110)
  • Featherweight – Zha Yi (+200) vs Jeong Yeong Lee (-250)
  • Bantamweight – Rinya Nakamura (-450) vs Toshiomi Kazama (+360)
  • Flyweight – Hyun Sung Park (-200) vs Seung Guk Choi (+160)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Ji Yeon Kim (-285) vs Mandy Bohm (+230)
  • Middleweight – Jun Yong Park (-240) vs Denis Tiuliulin (+190)
  • Flyweight – Tatsuro Taira (-1400) vs Jesus Aguilar (+750)

Odds as of February 4

UFC Fight Night: Spivak vs Lewis Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: February 4, 10 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, Cable Provider

Sergey Spivak vs Derrick Lewis Odds & Pick

Sergey Spivak-230
Derrick Lewis+195

Our odds calculator tells us Spivak’s -265 status represents an implied win probability of 69.70 percent, meaning a $10 bet pays out $14.35. Lewis’ +195 status gives him an implied win probability of 33.90 percent, which means a $10 bet on him pays out $29.50. 

Lewis: Need to Knows
  • Lewis is one of the most hilarious fighters on the roster, both for his lighthearted personality and his attitude in the Octagon. The 37-year-old loves to get in barroom brawls, swinging wildly, often without technique, until either he or his opponent hits the mat. Sometimes that strategy works in his favor (see his wild KO over Curtis Blaydes), but sometimes it stings him (see his KO loss to Tai Tuivasa). Lewis will be aggressive again Saturday, leaving it up to Spivak to drag this fight to the ground or risk tussling with the heavyweight division’s all-time best knockout artist. 
  • There’s no chance this fight goes the distance. Since Lewis is such a fan favorite, he often headlines Fight Night events. In his nine career five-round fights, the Black Beast is 5-4, with not one of those fights reaching the fifth round. In fact, the UNDER 1.5 rounds has hit five times in those nine headlining fights. Spivak’s last three fights have all gone UNDER 2.5 rounds. Someone is getting finished – it’s just a matter of calculating when that happens. 
  • The Texas native’s last three fights have come against Sergei Pavlovich (loss – technical knockout), Tuivasa (loss – knockout) and Chris Daukaus (win – knockout). 
Spivak: Need to Knows
  • Spivak’s boxing has improved as he’s racked up more UFC experience, but his roots exist as a mauler/wrestler. The 27-year-old is best in tight, either in the clinch or up against the fence, where he can use a trip takedown to initiate ground and pound. While Lewis is a slippery wrestler in his own right, Spivak will have a significant grappling advantage. If the Polar Bear can lean on Lewis and tire him out, the door is open for a pummel victory. 
  • The Moldovan has a 5-1 UFC record as the favorite. In fights where Spivak is favored, the OVER 2.5 rounds total is 3-3, with all three of the OVERs coming in three-round decisions. With Saturday being Spivak’s first bout as a headliner and with Lewis’ reputation for KOs, the UNDER 1.5 seems like the way to go. 
  • Spivak’s last three fights were against Augusto Sakai (win – technical knockout), Greg Hardy (win – technical knockout) and Tom Aspinall (loss – technical knockout). 

Pick: Lewis by KO/TKO (+185); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-130)

Da Un Jung vs Devin Clark Odds & Picks

Da Un Jung-265
Devin Clark+210

The co-main event features light heavyweights Da Un Jung (15-3-1, 4-1-1 UFC) and Devin Clark (13-7, 7-7 UFC).

Jung: Need to Knows
  • The UFC is lining Jung up to win this fight. The 29-year-old is a fun, albeit unpolished fighter with a knack for putting guys out. At UFC Vegas 42, Jung stood toe to toe with Kennedy Nzechukwu and blasted the Nigerian with elbows until putting him to sleep. That straight-line power is terrifying. Clark, Jung’s opponent, is notorious for blitzing up the middle, taking counterpunches and going to sleep. That bodes very well for the Korean.
  • I like this fight to go UNDER 2.5 rounds (-145), especially considering where the value’s at right now. Three of Jung’s four UFC wins have come inside the distance, and with him lined up against Clark, a guy who typically gets put out by superior fighters, I have plenty of confidence. 
  • Jung’s last three fights have come against Dustin Jacoby (loss – knockout), Nzechukwu (win – knockout) and William Knight (win – unanimous decision).
Clark: Need to Knows
  • Jung is beatable. He’s pretty good at baiting opponents into getting close, but his slow pace makes him vulnerable to movement (see his KO loss to Jacoby at UFC Long Island). For Clark to win, he needs to pick his moments. When Jung is feeling himself and the hands start to drop, Clark needs to rush and tag him before it’s too late. The Korean is far too good at lasering his shots toward a stationary opponent. Movement is king. 
  • Three of Clark’s last five fights have gone OVER 2.5 rounds, but I still like the chances of this fight stopping UNDER. At the end of the day, Jung is the better, smarter fighter. Six of Clark’s seven UFC wins have come via decision, but this fight shouldn’t get to the judges’ scorecards.
  • Clark’s last three fights were against Azamat Murzakanov (loss – technical knockout), Knight (win – knockout) and Ion Cutelaba (win – unanimous decision). 

Pick: Jung by KO/TKO/SUB (-120); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-165)

Doo Hoo Choi vs Kyle Nelson Odds & Picks

Doo Hoo Choi-200
Kyle Nelson+167

This card features the return of featherweight Doo Hoo Choi (14-4, 3-3 UFC), who will grace the Octagon for the first time in just over three years when he takes on Kyle Nelson (13-5, 1-4 UFC).

Choi: Need to Knows
  • A UFC fan favorite, Choi is best known for his fight vs Cub Swanson in 2016, a bout that was eventually inducted into the promotion’s Hall of Fame. “The Korean Super Boy” is fast, explosive and loves to engage in striking exchanges. Choi’s ring rust is the only real question in this fight. His opponent, Nelson, is inadequate, meaning it’s up to Choi to cash on his surprisingly low -210 status. 
  • I think Choi will win, but will he get the finish? Oddsmakers have this fight chalked to go OVER 1.5 rounds (-155), but they expect it to wrap up UNDER 2.5 rounds (-165). Five of Choi’s six UFC fights have ended inside the distance, with two stopping UNDER 1.5 rounds. This OVER/UNDER scares me a little, so I’ll put a sprinkle on the fight to go UNDER 1.5 rounds at +120 (because there’s a chance someone gets KO’ed early) but I can’t say I’m super confident in that bet.
  • The Korean’s last three fights have come against Charles Jourdain (loss – knockout), Jeremy Stephens (loss – knockout) and Cub Swanson (loss – unanimous decision). 
Nelson: Need to Knows
  • The Canadian is barely deserving of being on the UFC roster (1-4 record), though he has tangled with legit guys like Jai Herbert and Billy Quarantillo. Choi will be challenging for Nelson, who likes to swing wildly and seek a finish. “The Monster” has plenty of power, but his technique leaves something to be desired, as does his cardio. Choi is known as a very technical fighter. I think he exploits Nelson on February 4.
  • Nelson is good for a stoppage. Three of his five UFC bouts have finished inside the distance, with two of them stopping UNDER 1.5 rounds. After watching more tape on Nelson, I think he’ll swing heavily at Choi, which will either gas him out (and get him finished) or knock Choi down. Like I said before, I’m cautiously taking the UNDER 1.5 rounds (+120) as a flier, though UNDER 2.5 (-165) is safer.
  • The 31-year-old’s last three fights were against Herbert (loss – unanimous decision), Quarantillo (loss – knockout) and Polo Reyes (win – knockout). 

Pick: Choi to win (-200); UNDER 2.5 rounds (-200)

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