At the end of October, the light heavyweight title will be on the line at UFC 267: Jan Blachowicz vs Glover Teixeira. Sportsbook the month is a light heavyweight main event as former title challenger Thiago Santos collides with prospect Johnny Walker.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Walker is happening on Saturday, October 2, at the UFC Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. When it comes to Santos vs Walker odds in the main event, the former challenger is the betting favorite.
While Santos lost that title fight to Jon Jones via split decision, he hasn’t tasted victory since knocking out current champion Jan Blachowicz to earn that title shot. Including the Jones bout, Thiago is 0-3 in his last three but remains a dangerous fighter.
It wasn’t that long ago that Walker burst onto the scene and some were talking about him challenging Jones for the belt. He was given a top-five opponent in Corey Anderson that didn’t go his way but he returned to the win column just over a year ago with a first-round knockout win.
Santos vs Walker Odds
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the Santos vs Walker odds with Thiago set as the -155 favorite and Johnny listed as the +130 underdog. If you’re looking to profit $100 with a Santos win, you would have to wager $155, while a $100 winning bet on Walker would net you $130.
To illustrate the odds further, our sports betting calculator tells us that the -155 odds for Santos represent an implied win probability of 60.78 percent. On the other hand, Walker has an implied win probability of 43.48 percent with his +130 betting line.
When it comes to the biggest favorite on the Santos vs Walker fight card, you will be looking at Alexander Hernandez (-700) who is taking on UFC newcomer and late-notice replacement, Mike Breeden (+450).
If you’re looking to try your hand betting on the fight with the tightest odds, you will be looking at the prelim fight with Joe Solecki (-130) favored over Jared Gordon (+110).
Santos vs Walker Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Light Heavyweight – Thiago Santos (-155) vs Johnny Walker (+130)
- Middleweight – Kevin Holland (-185) vs Kyle Daukaus (+150)
- Welterweight – Niko Price (-210) vs Alex Oliveira (+170)
- Middleweight – Misha Cirkunov (+115) vs Krzysztof Jotko (-140)
- Lightweight – Alexander Hernandez (-700) vs Mike Breeden (+450)
- Prelims
- Lightweight – Joe Solecki (-130) vs Jared Gordon (+110)
- Women’s Flyweight – Antonina Shevchenko (+175) vs Casey O’Neill (-220)
- Women’s Bantamweight – Bethe Correia (+450) vs Karol Rosa (-700)
- Lightweight – Devonte Smith (-150) vs Jamie Mullarkey (+125)
- Bantamweight – Douglas Silva de Andrade (-285) vs Gaetano Pirrello (+225)
- Bantamweight – Johnny Eduardo (+200) vs Alejandro Perez (-250)
- Women's Bantamweight -- Stephanie Egger (-150) vs Shanna Young (+125)
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- Date/Time: October 2, 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where To Watch: ESPN+
Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | -155 |
| Johnny Walker | +130 |
As mentioned off the top, Thiago “Marreta” Santos (-155) has dropped three in a row but had knocked out three straight opponents prior to this skid. His opponent, Johnny Walker (+130), faced his first-ever skid in the UFC with back-to-back losses but emerged successfully last year with a decisive win.
- This current three-fight losing skid is the longest in Santos’s career, bringing his record to 21-9. Among those wins, he has 16 stoppages – 15 of them knockouts – while his nine losses are divided equally between knockouts, submissions and decisions.
- Marreta is an extremely powerful and dangerous striker. He is one of only a few men to score a wheel kick knockout, which he accomplished against Jack Marshman in 2017. In fact, each of his last eight victories have come via knockout.
- It’s possible his best days are behind him at the age of 37 and after the grueling fight with Jones that resulted in surgery on both of his knees due to severe ligament damage. Santos has tremendous leg kicks and while he may be most vulnerable in boxing range, he has huge power in his hands.
- Another area of concern for the former title challenger has been takedown defense and survival on the floor. While many don’t shoot on him due to the kicks, he has been worn down in grappling exchanges in the past.
- Santos’s last three fights were Jon Jones (loss – split decision), Glover Teixeira (loss – submission) and Aleksandar Rakic (loss – unanimous decision).
- Before the hype train was derailed in November 2019, the hype was real as Walker was on a nine-fight winning streak, including three first-round knockouts in his first three UFC bouts. He is now 18-5 with 15 knockouts, though three of his defeats have come in the same manner.
- Johnny has the look of a potential champion, standing six-foot-six with an 82-inch reach that is exceptional for the light heavyweight division. He is highly explosive but it comes at the expense of his conditioning and output. In his lone UFC bout to go the distance, he landed just 37 significant strikes.
- Walker has good kicks and is very creative in close range with elbows and short hooks that can put his counterparts to sleep. That said, the big red flag for him is that he tends to ignore defense in his big flurries, with his hands low and chin high.
- To the last point, he was dropped in his last fight with Ryan Spann after throwing a leg kick that wasn’t set up. Spann countered down the middle with a straight right, an approach similar to what Santos employs.
- Walker’s last three fights were Corey Anderson (loss – knockout), Nikita Krylov (loss – unanimous decision) and Ryan Spann (win – knockout).
Prediction: Thiago Santos (-155) via knockout
Kevin Holland vs Kyle Daukaus Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | -185 |
| Kyle Daukaus | +150 |
Perhaps the fighter who most took advantage of a bad situation in 2020, Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-185) fought five times and won them all, though his fortunes have reversed in 2021, as he’s 0-2. Also coming off a defeat in his last appearance in May is Kyle Daukaus (+150) after he had an impressive win, his first in the UFC, last November.
- It took until Holland’s 11th and 12th fights in the UFC for him to endure back-to-back losses; beforehand, he sported a record of 8-2 in the Octagon. Overall, he is 21-7 with 17 finishes (12 by knockout). He has only been stopped twice, both by submission.
- The main factor in Holland’s recent losses was simply his willingness to stay on his back after being taken down and not trying to get back up. In two five-round bouts, he was dragged to the mat a combined 17 times. In fact, he stuffs only 47 percent of takedown attempts and has been brought down 37 times in 12 UFC fights.
- He has impressive striking skills with his long 81-inch reach, which he uses well to maintain distance while talking trash from afar as he lands without taking damage. The game plan is simple: keep it on the feet and he has a shot; get taken down and the fight may not go as planned.
- Holland’s last three fights were Jacare Souza (win – knockout), Derek Brunson (loss – unanimous decision) and Marvin Vettori (loss – unanimous decision).
- It took until Daukaus’s UFC debut for him to taste defeat as he was a perfect 9-0 heading into that bout. Now, he’s looking at a 10-2 record with eight submission wins. The rest of the fights went to the judges’ scorecards.
- The southpaw is fairly basic on his feet with a decent jab followed by a loaded-up straight left. He also mixes in some kicks, specifically leg kicks. It is not the striking department that leads him to victory, though.
- Daukaus likes to use his conditioning and grappling as his main weapons, averaging 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes – his eight submissions highlight the threat he poses there. At times, he doesn’t drive through his takedown attempts and tends to stand up in the pocket with his hands low, which is a dangerous position to be in.
- Daukaus’s last three fights were Brendan Allen (loss – unanimous decision), Dustin Stoltzfus (win – unanimous decision) and Phil Hawes (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Kevin Holland (-185) via decision
Alex Oliveira vs Niko Price Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | +170 |
| Niko Price | -210 |
Expect fireworks when these two welterweights collide looking to return to the win column. Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (+170) has dropped his last two fights but won his two previous bouts in 2020. Meanwhile, Niko “The Hybrid” Price (-210) is winless in his last three, though they were spirited affairs. Combined, these two men have nine performance bonuses.
- Always a game fighter, Oliveira is making his 21st walk to the Octagon since 2015. His record stands at 22-10-1 with two no contests and 17 of his wins have been stoppages, including 12 knockouts. He has also been submitted six times, including his last two fights.
- Cowboy is a well-rounded fighter who has no problem mixing it up on the feet or taking the fight to the floor. He averages 2.37 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Oliveira is an aggressive fighter, closing the distance with his speed and good footwork, but he’s rarely the first to throw, rather looking to counter when he corners his foes. He will pick away with leg kicks if his opponents don’t engage with him.
- Oliveira’s last three fights were Peter Sobotta (win – unanimous decision), Shavkat Rakhmonov (loss – submission) and Randy Brown (loss – submission).
- Like Oliveira, Price has been an active fighter, competing for the 14th time since December 2016. He holds a 14-5 record with two no contests and only two of his bouts have gone the distance. He has 13 stoppage wins (10 by knockout) and four losses by finish (three by knockout).
- The Hybrid is all about getting into wars as he averages 5.29 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.87. He does mix in the odd takedown, averaging 0.75 per 15 minutes, but he’s primarily looking to get into a dogfight and break his foe down.
- He is aggressive, looking to close the distance and exchange hands. At times, he rushes in without any head movement and he can be countered effectively. Price doesn’t have a lot of speed in his attacks, but when he traps an opponent, he hits hard and stands his ground.
- Price’s last three fights were Vicente Luque (loss – knockout), Donald Cerrone (no contest) and Michel Pereira (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Alex Oliveira (+170) via decision
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Misha Cirkunov vs Krzysztof Jotko Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Misha Cirkunov | +115 |
| Krzysztof Jotko | -140 |
Following a rough stretch at light heavyweight in which he dropped four of six bouts, Misha Cirkunov (+115) is trying his hand at middleweight. Meanwhile, Krzysztof Jotko (-140) is looking to return to the win column after his three-fight winning streak was snapped earlier this year by Sean Strickland.
- While the recent run for Cirkunov has been tough, he had previously been on an eight-fight winning streak, including four straight finishes in the UFC. Now he is 15-6 with all of his losses coming by stoppage (four knockouts, two submissions), while 13 of his victories have been finishes, including eight submissions.
- With that many submissions, it should come as no surprise that Cirkunov enjoys grappling – he averages 4.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has great timing on his entries and he is aggressive on the floor in looking for the submission. He has a variety of different submission wins on his record, including the rare Peruvian necktie.
- On the feet, Misha has a nice body kick and he loads up on his punches, but he’s been dropped and knocked out several times. He doesn’t have a ton of footwork or head movement, which really puts an emphasis on his grappling to get the win.
- Cirkunov’s last three fights were Johnny Walker (loss – knockout), Jimmy Crute (win – submission) and Ryan Spann (loss – knockout).
- Jotko has been a bit of a streaky fighter of late, with a three-fight winning streak that ended in his last appearance and a three-fight skid prior to the winning streak. Overall, he’s 22-5 with 15 decision wins along with six knockouts. Three of his defeats have come by stoppage (two by knockout).
- The southpaw is a very safe and cautious fighter, using his 77-inch reach and exceptional footwork to point-fight his way to victory. This is evident with 15 decision wins, while two of his last three losses were by knockout – he doesn’t like mixing it up.
- He’s very fast and he will mix in a takedown now and again but he’s most comfortable on the feet. When Jotko is leading the dance, he frustrates his foes with his speed and elusiveness as he cruises to a decision win, though he can have difficulties in dogfights.
- Jotko’s last three fights were Marc-Andre Barriault (win – split decision), Eryk Anders (win – unanimous decision) and Sean Strickland (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Misha Cirkunov (+115) via submission
Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | -700 |
| Mike Breeden | +450 |
Set to make his UFC debut, Mike “Money” Breeden (+450) has won his last two fights since taking a loss in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He’ll be taking on Alexander “The Great” Hernandez (-700), who has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last six bouts.
- Hernandez earned his UFC debut on the heels of a six-fight winning streak that continued into the Octagon but he has struggled to find his footing recently. Overall, his record now stands at 12-4 with five knockout victories and two knockout losses.
- It’s very common to see The Great’s tempo slow after an active first round. His output isn’t that great – he has never landed more than 50 significant strikes in a fight. He averages 3.57 per 15 minutes, landing only 35 percent of his strike attempts, and he absorbs 3.81 significant strikes per minute.
- He mixes in 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, though the stat is slightly skewed with the seven total takedowns landed in his UFC career coming in two fights. Hernandez is a good fighter and at times looks unstoppable, but when he’s on his heels his output significantly drops.
- Hernandez’s last three fights were Drew Dober (loss – knockout), Chris Gruetzemacher (win – knockout) and Thiago Moises (loss – unanimous decision).
- As mentioned, Breeden lost in the Contender Series last August but his two subsequent wins have earned him this shot in the promotion. He is 10-3 with eight knockout wins and one defeat in the same manner.
- Money is a patient fighter but when he decides to let his hands fly, he has some good power. He loves a gritty fight in the pocket where he can throw his combinations with bad intentions. I like how he stands his ground when his foes engage with him, as that’s his opportunity to do damage.
- Breeden is calm in the pocket but a little more activity or urgency would go a long way to complement his heavy hands. Money typically walks his way into the pocket rather than punching his way in and that leads to him walking into his opponents’ strikes.
- Breeden’s last three fights were Anthony Romero (loss – unanimous decision), Ken Beverly (win – knockout) and Nick Compton (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Alexander Hernandez (-700) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Walker Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Light Heavyweight – Thiago Santos | -155 |
| Middleweight – Kevin Holland | -185 |
| Welterweight – Alex Oliveira | +170 |
| Middleweight – Misha Cirkunov | +115 |
| Lightweight – Alexander Hernandez | -700 |
