Islam Makhachev (right) is favored in the UFC 280 odds

UFC 280 Odds & Picks: Makhachev Favored Atop Star-Studded Main Card

Rejoice, fight fans. The best UFC fight card of 2022 is upon us. 

There will be plenty of thrilling fights during UFC 280 in Abu Dhabi, with the headliner featuring a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev (22-1) and Charles Oliveira (33-8). The prelim action begins at 10 a.m. ET at Etihad Arena, while the main card starts at 2 p.m.

Sportsbook has the UFC 280 odds, where Makhachev is favored in the main event.

Make sure to check out our UFC odds, our best MMA betting sites and our standard UFC betting news page for all your fighting needs.

UFC 280 Odds & Betting Notes

Oliveira, despite the scale mishap at UFC 274, still carries the aura of a champion. “Do Bronx” has faced a wicked gauntlet of opponents over his 11-fight win streak and come out on top. The 32-year-old hasn’t had much respect from oddsmakers during this stretch either, as he was pegged as a narrow favorite vs Justin Gaethje (-170) and Michael Chandler (-130), while fighting as the underdog vs Dustin Poirier (+135) and Tony Ferguson (+140).

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Makhachev, meanwhile, is on a 10-fight win streak, having won his last four fights by brutal stoppage (3 SUB, 1 KO/TKO). During that finish streak, the tightest UFC 280 odds he saw were -400 (vs Drew Dober). Sportsbooks love him, and for good reason. Islam has been hailed as the second coming of Khabib Nurmagomedov. We’ll see how he does in his first title shot. 

UFC 280 Odds: Oliveira vs Makhachev

Sportsbook has Makhachev listed as the -200 favorite and Oliveira as the +160 underdog. 

The biggest underdog of the card is Malcolm Gordon (+775) in his flyweight bout vs Muhammad Mokaev (-1600). 

The tightest odds of the afternoon can be found in the last prelim bout between welterweights Belal Muhammad (+115) and Sean Brady (-140). 

UFC 280 Betting Odds & Fight Card

UFC 280 Fight Card
  • Main Card
  • Lightweight Title Fight – Islam Makhachev (-200) vs Charles Oliveira (+160)
  • Bantamweight Title Fight – Aljamain Sterling (-179) vs TJ Dillashaw (+140)
  • Bantamweight – Petr Yan (-275) vs Sean O’Malley (+220)
  • Lightweight – Beneil Dariush (+171) vs Mateusz Gamrot (-210)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Katlyn Chookagian (+178) vs Manon Fiorot (-230)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Belal Muhammad (+115) vs Sean Brady (-140)
  • Middleweight – Makhmud Muradov (+180) vs Caio Borralho (-220)
  • Light Heavyweight – Volkan Oezdemir (+150) vs Nikita Krylov (-185)
  • Welterweight – Abubakar Nurmagomedov (-180) vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (+145)
  • Middleweight – Armen Petrosyan (-220) vs AJ Dobson (+170)
  • Flyweight – Muhammad Mokaev (-1600) vs Malcolm Gordon (+775)
  • Women’s Bantamweight – Lina Lansberg (+300) vs Karol Rosa (-400)

Odds as of October 22 via Sportsbook

UFC 280: Oliveira vs Makhachev Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: October 22, 10 a.m. ET
  • Location: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  • Arena: Etihad Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev Odds & Pick

Islam Makhachev-200
Charles Oliveira+160

The line has seen plenty of movement, swinging from in Islam’s favor, then back toward Oliveira as fight fans hammer the underdog. For now, the Russian is the -200 chalk.

Using our odds calculator, Islam’s -200 status implies a win probability of 66.67 percent. A $10 bet on Makhachev pays out $15.00. Oliveira’s +160 odds give him an implied win probability of 38.46 percent. A $10 bet on the underdog pays out $26.00. 

Makhachev: Need to Knows

  • Islam, like his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, is essentially the UFC’s most vicious top-mount fighter. He’s methodical, he’s heavy and he’ll have no problem smothering Oliveira as he works to pass guard and lock down a D’arce choke or a kimura. Oliveira has fought in the UFC for ages, but he does have three submission losses (two rear-naked chokes and a leg bar). Makhachev will shoot for the takedown early, so watch to see if Oliveira tries to eject the heavier Russian off him or just roll with grappling off his back.
  • Makhachev has one UFC loss, all the way back in 2015 vs an opponent named Adriano Martins. That fight ended terribly for Islam, who exchanged some mild strikes with the Brazilian before Martins exploded with a counter left hand that knocked Makhachev out. There’s an avenue for Charles to beat Islam, especially if the Brazilian utilizes his four-inch reach advantage and throws quick, explosive shots. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the better Oliveira’s chances are. He’ll push forward using overhand punches, his underrated left hook, and knees and elbows.
  • Islam’s last three fights were against Bobby Green (win – technical knockout), Dan Hooker (win – submission) and Thiago Moises (win – submission).
Oliveira: Need to Knows
  • How will Oliveira fight from the bottom? It’s highly unlikely he submits Makhachev, so he’ll have to pivot to defensive jiu-jitsu. Charles will need to keep his guard closed and stop Makhachev from stepping over him. There’s a route to victory if Oliveira tries to tire out Makhachev, who has never gone five rounds. Of course, Oliveira’s long limbs give him an advantage, and we expect him to throw up a submission attempt or two just for fun. 
  • Oliveira has famously supreme jiu-jitsu. It’ll be interesting to see how much respect Makhachev gives him. If Islam is unafraid and dives right in at the Brazilian, watch for Oliveira to get creative as he lets the fight fall to the mat. Patience will be key at that point, which is why we think this fight gets decided OVER 2.5 rounds. While Do Bronx has the most submission wins in UFC history (16), he also has three submission losses.
  • Oliveira’s last three fights were against Justin Gaethje (win – submission), Dustin Poirier (win – submission) and Michael Chandler (win – technical knockout). 

For a more detailed analysis of the Oliveira vs Makhachev odds, click here

Pick: Makhachev by submission (+200); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+115)

Bet On Oliveira vs Makhachev Odds Here

Aljamain Sterling vs T.J. Dillashaw Odds & Pick

Aljamain Sterling-179
T.J. Dillashaw+140

The co-main event also features a title fight, as Sterling (21-3) defends his bantamweight belt against Dillashaw (17-4). 

Sterling: Need to Knows
  • As always, Sterling’s wrestling will decide this fight. Sterling leads all active bantamweights in control time (57:30) while ranking fourth in top position time (38:35). He had it relatively easy against Petr Yan, whom he smothered for over eight minutes of control time at UFC 273. Dillashaw won’t go quietly fighting off his back the way Yan did.
  • T.J. rarely ever accepts vulnerable wrestling positions, which is evident in his outrageous 0.54 bottom percentage time, the second-best mark among active bantamweights. Dillashaw is also more accurate than Sterling at shooting for takedowns (30% vs 21%) while defending takedowns at a dramatically better clip (86% vs 41%), though it’s worth noting that Sterling, a submission artist, is OK to let fighters take him to the ground. Regardless of who wins, this bout will be decided on the ground, which lends us to believe it will go the distance.
  • Sterling’s last two fights were against Yan (a win by split decision and a win by disqualification). Before that, he defeated Cory Sandhagen by submission.
Dillashaw: Need to Knows
  • Dillashaw has more experience in gritty standup battles, while also being a higher-volume striker (3.27 significant strikes attempted per minute) than Sterling (2.24), giving him the advantage if this fight stays upright.
  • The last time Dillashaw met a talented wrestler, in 2019 vs Henry Cejudo, things didn’t go so well. A -210 favorite in that bout, he chose to stand in front of Cejudo and challenge his striking. Cejudo wound up clipping Dillashaw with a sharp right hand, then securing the TKO after 32 seconds. That strategy failed miserably for the ex-champ, but after two years off — and coming off a battle with a proficient striker in Sandhagen — T.J. is stronger than Sterling on the feet. “Killashaw” earned his violent nickname over the years by piling up seven KO/TKO wins, the most in bantamweight history. 
  • The American’s last three fights have come against Sandhagen (win – split decision), Cejudo (loss – technical knockout) and Cody Garbrandt (win – technical knockout).

For a more detailed analysis of the Sterling vs Dillashaw odds, click here

Pick: Dillashaw by decision (+300)

Bet On UFC 280 Odds Here

Petr Yan vs sean o’Malley Odds & Pick

Petr Yan-275
Sean O’Malley+220

The bangers keep coming. The UFC 280 main card also features a fan-favorite bantamweight fight between Yan (16-3) and O’Malley (15-1).

O’Malley: Need to Knows
  • Everyone loves Suga Sean for his colorful hair and exotic, spinning striking style, which has led to a few eye-popping knockouts. If there’s a criticism to be made about O’Malley, though, it’s that his propensity for the razzle-dazzle outweighs his technical prowess or his fight IQ. That’s not necessarily the case. O’Malley is a more tactical fighter than people think, and given that Yan has lacked discipline lately, notably in his rematch vs Sterling, the timing might be right for an upset.
  • O’Malley’s speed and creativity will be his ticket to victory against the slower, stockier Yan. The former champ often holds a very high guard, shelling up to protect from blows to the head. One of Yan’s previous opponents, Cory Sandhagen, found ways around that at UFC 267, focusing on front kicks and long hooks to the body. As the taller fighter packing a five-inch reach advantage over Yan, the blueprints are there for O’Malley to come out on top. If he stays active and mixes in various kicks to the head and body, there’s an opportunity to do some damage.
  • O’Malley’s last three fights were against Pedro Munhoz (no contest – accidental eye poke), Raulian Paiva (win – knockout) and Kris Moutinho (win – technical knockout). 
Yan: Need to Knows
  • The Russian was hopped up for his rematch vs Sterling at UFC 273 and entered the cage like a man on a mission, swinging wildly with intent behind each bomb. Instead of fighting smart, it looked like Yan was fighting angry, with each missed strike exposing him to a counter and lowering his energy in the process. O’Malley is a smooth enough trash-talker and deadly enough in the Octagon to clobber Yan if he comes into UFC 280 with the same mindset. Watch for Yan’s attitude to be a difference-maker. 
  • For all that O’Malley does right, Yan is still the more polished fighter. He’s stronger, he’s more experienced and he holds the upper hand in the clinch and on the ground. We expect O’Malley to hold his own; he has the talent to do so, but it’s far more likely Yan will out-will him when the going gets tough. 
  • Yan’s last three fights were against Sterling (loss – split decision), Sandhagen (win – unanimous decision) and Sterling (loss – disqualification).

For a more detailed analysis of the Yan vs O’Malley odds, click here

Pick: Yan by decision (+105)

Bet On UFC 280 Odds Here

Beneil Dariush vs Mateusz Gamrot Odds & Pick

Beneil Dariush+171
Mateusz Gamrot-210

A fight between two top lightweights will also grace the UFC 280 main card when Dariush (21-4-1) and Gamrot (21-1) share the Octagon. 

Dariush: Need to Knows
  • The southpaw Dariush is an underrated striker, often using quick punches and a strong Muay Thai background to attack opponents. But, much like former lightweight champ Oliveira, every movement on the feet is about setting up a ground advantage. “Benny” is quite good at pushing his opponent against the cage, then working to take their back and drag the fight to the mat. Once he’s there, watch for suffocating chokes anchored by his airtight body triangle lock. He’s finished eight of his 20 fights (40 percent finish rate), including five wins by submission.
  • At this point in his career, Dariush is fighting for much more than cash. A decisive win over Gamrot would finally push the Iranian over the edge and could earn him a title shot. Dariush struggled early in his UFC career, suffering multiple stoppage losses, but has surged back to snap off seven consecutive wins. He’s at the top of his game, and a win over Gamrot could shake up the 155-pound division.
  • Dariush’s last three fights were against Tony Ferguson (win – unanimous decision), Diego Ferreira (win – split decision) and Scott Holtzman (win – knockout). 
Gamrot: Need to Knows
  • Gamrot is a fierce wrestler, perhaps even more aggressive on the mat than Dariush. The Polish fighter averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at a stellar 90 percent clip. Unlike Dariush, however, Gamrot’s submission game is a bit stale. He only attempts about 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes. His one UFC submission came in the first round against Jeremy Stephens, who’s not known for his grappling abilities.
  • If they do stand and trade – which sometimes happens when two elite wrestlers go at it – it’ll be interesting. Both guys are southpaws and Dariush possesses a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Gamrot is a much more energetic striker, whereas Dariush is poised and explodes during counters. On the feet or the mat, this will be a dogfight. And when that’s the case, it’s always better to lean toward the underdog.
  • Gamrot’s last three fights were against Arman Tsarukyan (win – unanimous decision), Ferreira (win – submission due to strikes) and Stephens (win – submission). 

Pick: Dariush Inside the distance (+400)

Bet On UFC 280 Odds Here

Katlyn Chookagian vs Manon Fiorot Odds & pick

Katlyn Chookagian+178
Manon Fiorot-230

The first event on the main card is a women’s flyweight fight between Fiorot (9-1) and Chookagian (18-4).

Chookagian: Need to Knows
  • Chookagian holds a two-inch height advantage and three-inch reach advantage over Fiorot. As the longer athlete in most her matchups, “Blonde Fighter” usually succeeds punching from a distance. She’s a point fighter, having won 15 of her 18 career fights by decision. Chookagian has never finished an opponent in the UFC, though she does have two stoppage losses (knockouts by Jessica Andrade and Valentina Schevchenko). Once the line comes out, it’s safe to bet on this fight going the distance. We’ll explore the stoppage possibilities a little further down the article. 
  • While Chookagian doesn’t have the pace to score finishes, she still throws heavy shots, notably straight-high kick combos. The problem is she’s not a terribly accurate striker. The 33-year-old averages 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute, but lands at just a 35 percent clip. Fiorot, on the other hand, lands 6.60 significant strikes per minute with 45 percent accuracy. The data points to Chookagian being outclassed.
  • The Pennsylvania native’s last three fights were against Amanda Ribas (win – split decision), Jennifer Maia (win – unanimous decision) and Viviane Araujo (win – unanimous decision). 
Fiorot: Need to Knows
  • It’s important to remember Chookagian is still the top-ranked flyweight contender, so beating her won’t be easy. Fiorot will have to rely on her heavy hands to do the trick, and, boy, is she strong. The 32-year-old stormed into the UFC with thunderous stoppage wins over Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci. Her left and right hooks are deadly, as are her twisting, deceptive kicks. Fiorot has rightfully earned her nickname “The Beast,” and if she can rattle off some clean shots and mount the pressure vs Chookagian, we might just see a stoppage finish.
  • Chookagian has vulnerabilities. At UFC Fight Island 6, Andrade folded the American with a few stinging shots to the body. Like Andrade, Fiorot is stocky and uses clever combos to march through her opponents. Chookagian’s other knockout loss came at the hands of Schevchenko, where the champion took a mounted crucifix position and clubbed away. The crucifix KO is less likely in this one, but there is some precedent for a striker like Fiorot to stop this bout inside the distance. Still, we expect this one to go for the full 15 minutes.
  • Fiorot’s last three fights were against Maia (win – unanimous decision), Mayra Bueno Silva (win – unanimous decision) and Ricci (win – technical knockout).

Pick: Fiorot by decision (-120)

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