For the first time in over a month, the UFC will host a star-studded pay-per-view event. The punchy UFC 283 lineup is highlighted by a light heavyweight title fight between Jamahal Hill (11-1, 5-1-1 NC UFC) and aging legend Glover Teixeira (33-8, 16-6 UFC).
This event also marks the promotion’s return to Brazil for the first time since UFC Fight Night: Lee vs Oliveira in March 2020. UFC 283 takes place January 21 at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, with prelim fights starting at 6 p.m. ET and the main card beginning at 10 p.m.
Hill is currently favored in the UFC 283 odds, carrying a -138 chalk status.
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UFC 283 Odds & Betting Notes
The headliner between Hill and Teixeira was a bit improvised. Originally, Teixeira was supposed to rematch Jiri Prochazka at UFC 282 for the undisputed 205-pound belt, but when the champ vacated the belt due to a shoulder injury, chaos ensued. Teixeira turned down a short-notice fight vs Magomed Ankalaev, so the UFC passed over the 43-year-old, instead booking Ankalaev vs Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title.
When Blachowicz and Ankalaev fought to a draw in an underwhelming main event at UFC 282, the UFC brass was so upset it set up the Hill vs Teixeira fight just moments after the scorecards were announced. A new, more exciting title fight was born, and the UFC 283 odds are much tighter.
With Hill at -138, it marks the third straight fight in which “Sweet Dreams” is favored. In fact, Hill has opened as the favorite in six of his seven UFC fights (he knocked out Jimmy Crute as a +150 underdog at UFC Vegas 44). The 31-year-old is a hungry, vicious fighter, though it looks like the public is counting on Teixeira’s savviness to make this a close fight.
Teixeira is typically the underdog in his fights, though the UFC 283 odds are nearly at pick’em status. If his +110 underdog status holds, it’ll represent his shortest odds since a 2019 fight vs Nikita Krylov, which Glover won by split decision.
UFC 283 Odds: Teixeira vs Hill
Hill is favored at -138 in the main event, with Teixeira coming in as the +110 underdog.
Predictably, the tightest odds of the evening can be found in the co-main event, a flyweight title bout between Deiveson Figueiredo (+100) and Brandon Moreno (-125), who will be fighting each other for the fourth time in the last three years.
Brazilian heavyweight Jailton Almeida (-1000) is the biggest favorite on the card, making his opponent, Shamil Abdurakhimov (+600), the most significant underdog.
Also of note, every fight on the UFC 283 lineup features at least one Brazilian fighter. That’ll be a ton of fun for fans.
UFC 283 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Light Heavyweight Title Fight – Glover Teixeira (+110) vs Jamahal Hill (-138)
- Flyweight Title Fight – Deiveson Figueiredo (+100) vs Brandon Moreno (-125)
- Welterweight – Gilbert Burns (-450) vs Neil Magny (+350)
- Women’s Flyweight – Jessica Andrade (-500) vs Lauren Murphy (+380)
- Light Heavyweight – Johnny Walker (-200) vs Paul Craig (+170)
- Prelims
- Light Heavyweight – Shogun Rua (+180) vs Ihor Potieria (-220)
- Middleweight – Gregory Rodrigues (-334) vs Bruno Ferreira (+250)
- Lightweight – Thiago Moises (-400) vs Melquizael Costa (+300)
- Welterweight – Gabriel Bonfim (-175) vs Mounir Lazzez (+150)
- Heavyweight – Jailton Almeida (-1000) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (+600)
- Lightweight – Terrance McKinney (-138) vs Ismael Bonfim (+110)
- Women’s Featherweight – Josiane Nunes (-550) vs Zarah Fairn (+400)
- Bantamweight – Luan Lacerda (+275) vs Cody Stamann (-350)
- Bantamweight – Daniel Marcos (+137) vs Saimon Oliveira (-163)
Odds as of January 20
- Date/Time: January 21, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Arena: Jeunesse Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Glover Teixeira vs Jamahal Hill Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | +110 |
| Jamahal Hill | -138 |
Our odds calculator suggests Hill’s -138 status translates to an implied win probability of 57.96 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him to win pays out $17.25 (a return of your original $10 plus a profit of $7.25). Teixeira’s +110 odds translate to an implied win probability of 47.62 percent and a $10 bet on him pays out $21.
Hill: Need To Knows
- Hill is a thunderous power puncher (see his cartoon-like knockout over Johnny Walker) and that should terrify Teixeira, who’s been knocked out in spectacular fashion on two occasions. Hill’s length (three-inch reach advantage) and whip with his strikes will help him easily best Glover in a striking match. The 31-year-old should be prepared for Teixeira to outwrestle him, the same tactic the 43-year-old employed vs Prochazka, another electric striker. Hill will get taken down – it’s inevitable – so watch for him to pop up. He was taken down six times by Thiago Santos, his last opponent, but still found an avenue for a TKO win. The longer Saturday’s fight stays up, the better Hill’s chances get.
- Sweet Dreams has earned his nickname with knockout wins in four of his seven fights. As a result, the odds are clearly banking on a stoppage win (-475 for the fight to finish inside the distance). Hill’s style nearly always induces knockouts, but with the takedown barrage that’ll come from Teixeira, I don’t hate a couple OVER rounds bets for plus money. We’ll touch on that in a moment.
- Hill’s last three fights were against Santos (win – technical knockout), Walker (win – knockout) and Crute (win – knockout).
Teixeira: Need To Knows
- Ole’ Glover keeps giving us miracles, and he’ll need another one Saturday. Hill has devastating power, speed and length. But at the end of the day, the Brazilian is far more experienced, especially in five-round events. At UFC 275, he was 30 seconds away from beating Prochazka on the scorecards before a reversal led to a rear-naked choke. Hill is shifty, capable of getting to his feet after a takedown, but Teixeira should be able to wrestle with no fear. That means aggressive attempts to mount, plenty of ground-and-pound offense and even a few submission attempts. If Teixeira gets this to the mat, he could grind out another stunning victory.
- The OVER/UNDER on rounds offers a great chance to make some serious money. Sure, this fight could start with Hill swinging heavy and putting Glover out early, but if Teixeira wrestles fearlessly, which I expect him to, then we can profit off the OVER. Right now, a bet on OVER 1.5 rounds nets you a -125 return. I love that. If you’re feeling greedy, take the OVER 2.5 rounds at +162. It took Hill into the fourth round to put Santos away. Glover won’t go as gently into that good night.
- Teixeira’s last three fights have come against Prochazka (loss – submission), Blachowicz (win – submission) and Santos (win – submission).
Pick: Teixeira (+110) to win; OVER 1.5 Rounds (-125) with Dart Throw on OVER 2.5 Rounds (+162)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | +100 |
| Brandon Moreno | -125 |
The undisputed flyweight title is on the line and the usual suspects are back as Brandon Moreno (20-6-2, 8-3-1 UFC) and Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1, 10-2-1 UFC) fight in the co-main event.
Moreno: Need To Knows
- These fights are always bangers, and after three bouts between Moreno and Figueiredo, you’d think we’d know how to handicap. Moreno is the more consistent fighter, meaning he’s always ready to bang, bring pressure and roll on the mat if necessary. Moreno looked fantastic in his interim title win vs Kai Kara-France at UFC 277, finishing the Aussie with a devastating liver kick. “The Assassin Baby” has always been able to outwrestle the Brazilian, so if he maintains his creative striking (a knockdown would go a long way) and gets ahead on the score early, the undisputed 125-pound belt could be headed back to Mexico.
- The odds have it at -150 that Moreno vs Figueiredo 4 goes the distance, and that’s quite possible. However, Moreno and Figueiredo are two of the more potent finishers in the division. Only one of their previous fights has ended inside the distance, putting that prop at +110 (implies a 47.62 percent chance). With Moreno coming off a finish and Figueiredo fighting at home, I like those plus-money odds.
- Moreno’s last fight came against Kara-France (win – technical knockout). Before that, he fought Figueiredo twice, losing by unanimous decision at UFC 270 and winning by submission at UFC 263.
Figueiredo: Need To Knows
- Ring rust could be real for Figueiredo, as the 35-year-old hasn’t fought since his win over Moreno at UFC 270. On the mend from multiple hand injuries, Figueiredo will end a one-year layoff when he enters the Octagon on Saturday. Watch for his early movements in the cage as hints to his comfort level. Figueiredo is bigger and more powerful than Moreno, meaning he’s best when he comes out heavy and establishes himself with strong punches to the head and kicks to the body. Moreno is a notoriously slow starter, so as the rounds creep later on, the Mexican’s cardio and wrestling give him an advantage.
- Figueiredo is the flyweight version of “The Terminator.” He’s crunched many formidable opponents (Joseph Benavidez, Alex Perez, Tim Elliott) with stoppage victories but hasn’t put away Moreno, who has never lost by stoppage. I think this fight is a lock to go OVER 2.5 rounds (-300), maybe even 3.5 rounds (-200), but there’s no real value in betting that way. If you think Moreno will win, take the fight to finish inside the distance (+110). If you’re counting on “Deus Da Guerra,” take the fight to go the distance (-150).
- Figueiredo’s last three fights have all come against Moreno. The Brazilian won by unanimous decision at UFC 270, lost by submission at UFC 263 and fought to a majority draw at UFC 256 (which Figueiredo would’ve won if not for an illegal low blow).
Pick: Moreno to win (-125); Fight To Finish ITD (+110)
Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny Odds & Picks
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gilbert Burns | -450 |
| Neil Magny | +350 |
Gilbert Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) and Neil Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC), two longtime welterweight contenders, will fight on the UFC 283 main card.
Burns: Need To Knows
- Burns, fresh off a three-round war with Khamzat Chimaev, is a deserving -400 favorite in this fight, but his chalky status means we need to dig deeper for value. Since the start of 2019, Burns has finished just two opponents (Mike Davis by SUB and Demian Maia by KO). “Durinho” is a strong grappler who flexed his boxing chops vs Chimaev but is best suited to use his jiu-jitsu vs Magny. “The Haitian Sensation” has four submission losses in his UFC career and is far more likely to cede to one of Burns’ chokes than a combo that puts him out. There will be value once the props come out, so I’d suggest a dart throw on Burns to win by submission (+210).
- The odds for OVER 2.5 rounds are set at -138, and that’s the direction I’m leaning for this bout. While Burns is well-versed in submissions, Magny’s recent stoppage loss came against savage wrestler Shavkat Rakhmonov, who finished Magny by guillotine in Round 2. Six of Magny’s last eight fights have gone the distance, and I don’t think Burns will be able to put him out.
- The 36-year-old’s last three fights have come against Chimaev (loss – unanimous decision), Stephen Thompson (win – unanimous decision) and Kamaru Usman (loss – technical knockout).
Magny: Need To Knows
- Magny is consistent (20 wins, most in welterweight history) but he’s never been elite, making him exactly the type of guy Burns should roll over. Burns hits quite hard on the feet, which should make Magny wary of striking exchanges. Of course, Burns is also an excellent grappler. There’s no way out of this for Magny, who only stopped his last fight because Daniel Rodriguez gassed out in miserable fashion. The 35-year-old has life left to give in the UFC, just not against Burns.
- Again, I see this fight going to a decision. I think the OVER 2.5 rounds (-138) is the smartest rounds bet.
- Magny’s last three fights have come against Rodriguez (win – submission), Rakhmonov (loss – submission) and Max Griffin (win – split decision).
Pick: Burns by decision (+160); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-138)
Jessica Andrade vs Lauren Murphy Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jessica Andrade | -500 |
| Lauren Murphy | +380 |
Flyweights Jessica Andrade (23-9, 14-7 UFC) and Lauren Murphy (16-5, 8-5 UFC) will be the lone female pairing on the UFC 283 main card.
Andrade: Need To Knows
- Andrade should lay a beating on Murphy in this one. One of the most powerful female fighters on the roster, the Brazilian is coming off four straight finishes (three wins, one loss) and will look to put her opponent out in Round 1. Andrade is much shorter than Murphy but is a more potent striker, averaging 6.16 significant strikes per minute. Murphy, on the other hand, has a negative strike differential (3.84 strikes landed, 4.45 absorbed).
- With Andrade at -500, we need to find other avenues to profit. I like the UNDER 2.5 rounds (+100) in this one. Seven of her last 10 fights have finished inside the distance, including five first-round finishes (four wins, one loss) during that span.
- The 31-year-old’s last three fights were against Amanda Lemos (win – submission), Cynthia Calvillo (win – technical knockout) and Valentina Shevchenko (loss – technical knockout).
Murphy: Need To Knows
- Murphy isn’t a bad fighter by any means (just one stoppage loss in her career), I just think Andrade is a killer. With the way Murphy eats punches, this one could be over fast. It’s very hard to out-punch Andrade, meaning Murphy’s best chance to win could be to keep the distance with her long jab and seek a takedown. When Murphy lands more takedowns than her opponent, she’s 6-1. When her opponent beats her in the takedown department, she’s 1-3.
- The 39-year-old is capable of working a finish – even if we don’t expect her to stop Andrade – which only fuels the UNDER 2.5 rounds bet. There should be opportunities for Andrade to swarm Murphy and use her creative power to record a finish. EVEN odds imply a 50 percent chance of the fight ending UNDER 2.5 rounds. In reality, I think it’s more like 55 percent (around -125), which gives this bet good value.
- Murphy’s last three fights have come against Miesha Tate (win – unanimous decision), Shevchenko (loss – technical knockout) and Joanne Wood (win – split decision).
Pick: Andrade by KO/TKO/SUB (+110); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+100)
Johnny Walker vs Paul Craig Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | -200 |
| Paul Craig | +170 |
A light heavyweight laser show will kick off the main card when Johnny Walker (19-7, 5-4 UFC) and Paul Craig (16-5-1, 8-5-1 UFC) chuck knuckles.
Craig: Need To Knows
- Craig is a tricky bugger. The Scotsman has six submission wins (the second highest among active light heavyweights) and he’ll look to bring that energy Saturday. The problem is that his opponent, Walker, is a physical beast. Walker’s massive six-foot-six frame will limit a lot of what Craig can do in top position. For Craig to win, he needs to bait Walker in from the bottom and secure a triangle or armbar (that’s how he beat Kennedy Nzechukwu, a good physical comparison to Walker).
- As expected, the line suggests this fight will finish UNDER 1.5 rounds (-138). I’m inclined to agree with those odds, though Craig is quite hard to put away and he’s famous for last-minute submission victories. In a three-round fight, Walker should empty the tank, which usually leads to a finish either by him or his opponent. With that in mind, the UNDER 1.5 seems like the way to go.
- Craig’s last three fights have come against Volkan Oezdemir (loss – unanimous decision), Nikita Krylov (win – submission) and Jamahal Hill (win – TKO injury stoppage).
Walker: Need To Knows
- Walker looked reborn during his submission win over Ion Cutelaba at UFC 279. In that fight, Walker got taken down but reversed position and secured a rear-naked choke. Craig will shoot for takedowns Saturday and Walker is best to counter with knees and kicks down the middle. The 30-year-old’s strong, long limbs are such a weapon, and he should be able to pop Craig on the chin or the body when he gets too close. From there, I see a knockout brewing.
- The Brazilian is an all-or-nothing guy. In his nine-fight UFC career, seven bouts have finished in the first round and two have gone the distance. Walker loves dishing out pain but has also received some tough early knockouts. In his home country of Brazil, I bet Walker feels the need to put on a show. He’s a silly dude outside of the cage and likes to have fun. All to say, a first-round finish seems likely. Once the odds update, a bet on UNDER 0.5 rounds could play, too.
- Walker’s last three fights have come against Cutelaba (win – submission), Hill (loss – knockout) and Thiago Santos (loss – unanimous decision).
