UFC on Fox: Mighty Mouse vs Reis Betting Odds and Preview

The UFC comes back to big Fox on April 15 with one of the best main cards we’ve ever seen on free TV. The main event features Demetrious Johnson looking to tie the record for consecutive title defenses when he puts his flyweight title on the line against Wilson Reis.

The co-main event sees Rose Namajunas and Michelle Waterson facing off with the Sportsbook likely in line for a strawweight title shot. Also on the main card is Jacare Souza facing Robert Whittaker in a matchup that has every hard-core MMA fan giddy.

Demetrious Johnson vs Wilson Reis

Demetrious Johnson (-850) is the most complete fighter in MMA. He blends blazing speed, amazing technical prowess, and otherworldly fight IQ into a dominant fighting machine.

In the standup game, “Mighty Mouse” can strike without any warning and is plenty capable of switching stances seamlessly. This is all built on his phenomenal footwork that allows him to glide in the Octagon and stifle his opponent with an unpredictable barrage of strikes. This footwork also plays into Johnson’s underappreciated aggression, as he is constantly moving forward and angling for strikes.

Johnson’s grappling game is incredibly efficient. There was a point in time when you could say his defensive wrestling was his biggest hole, but he has worked on this and opponents can no longer exploit this. His work in the clinch is masterful and he is equally able to open his opponent up for strikes or a double-leg from this position. If Mighty Mouse is on top, he has vicious ground and pound and passes guard with ease.

Wilson Reis (+525) is one of many great fighters who have gone overlooked due to Johnson’s dominance of the division. Since moving to 125 lbs, Reis is 5-1 with two wins by way of submission.

There is no doubt that Reis wants to drag his opponent to the ground. He has won multiple world BJJ championships, holds a black belt in the discipline under Roberto Godoi and has 10 pro MMA wins via submission. He passes with ease and excels in the scramble once a fight goes to the mat. Even if he is unable to lock in a submission, Reis is aggressively positioning himself to wear down opponents and chip away at their defenses. He is an aggressive wrestler who will keep shooting without fear.

Reis is largely functional in the striking game. He’s not the best in the division, but he is more than serviceable. The southpaw likes to work a powerful leg kick and has some good power in his left hand for the division. He is not especially active in the striking game, as he tends to prefer waiting on his spots with his grappling being his first option.

At this point, you would be dumb to doubt Mighty Mouse. He is a master who blends all of his skills together better than anyone else. However, this may offer a spot for Reis to capitalize, as the Brazilian is great at scrambling. Johnson deserves to be the overwhelming favorite but it’s not like there is a zero percent chance Reis wins…I’d give him five percent. 

Rest Of The Main Card

Michelle Waterson (+110) is potentially the most complete fighter in the division. ‘The Karate Hottie’ has a black belt in American freestyle karate and a blue belt in BJJ. She likes to push the pace on the feet and works good combinations with her hands and her feet. Her feet are the most dangerous part of her striking, which is to be expected with the karate background, as she uses them often and with a confidence you only get from years of experience. In the clinch, Waterson is capable of pulling off takedowns, with a special ability to land the hip toss. Once on top, she is fast, and she hunts for submissions. Waterson is smaller for the division; she used to fight at atomweight, and could be bullied by a bigger fighter. Rose Namajunas (-140) is one of the best female fighters on the planet and you can see her growth every time she enters the Octagon — remember she is only 24. The big growth has come in the striking game with ‘Thug” learning to control her aggression and build a technically marvelous approach. She is great at range and has maintained a meat-and-potatoes, stick-and-move approach. Namajunas loves working in the clinch, as her height and lankiness make her hard to contain. Rose will throw plenty of stinging knees once she gets a double collar tie. If a fight goes to the mat, Namajunas is aggressive and violent in top control. She moves with ease and lands brutal ground and pound. She still has issues with her defensive wrestling and can be stifled when she is on the bottom.

Jacare Souza (-250) has a legitimate claim to being the best submission grappler in MMA history. I know that sounds melodramatic, but Jacare has recorded 17 submission victories in his career with three of his past four wins coming via that method. If he gains top control, then the fight is likely over, as Jacare passes guard with ease and can lock in submissions from nearly any position. Souza’s striking game is based on pressure, and trapping his opponent against the cage. His footwork and striking allow him to make the cage smaller for his opponent. Once Jacare can push his opponent’s back to the cage, he works a clinch game that includes fantastic takedowns and plenty of striking. Looking at the negatives, Jacare is 37, doesn’t always throw with enough volume and it’s fair to question his chin at this age. Robert Whittaker (+195) is athletic, fast and powerful in the Octagon. He generally prefers to strike and is able to gauge distance well despite being relatively short in stature for the division. He will continuously throw jabs and kicks to keep the proper distance until he can explode inside with his speed and unleash powerful combinations. Whittaker shows great head movement but his lack of size means he can get tagged himself. The rest of his game is sufficient, though relatively untested. He is a great defensive wrestler, thanks to his command of space, and does have some sneaky submission skills on the mat.

Jeremy Stephens (-190) is a puncher through and through. That’s not to say he can’t compete in other aspects but he enters every fight looking to knock his opponent out. Stephens relies more on counters and can tend to be inactive at range. He will throw some leg kicks and jabs but he tends to wait for his opponent to commit to a move. His wrestling defense is slightly above average but his striking defense isn’t great because he can look for the perfect punch too often. Renato Moicano (+155) could be a bigger name if injuries hadn’t forced him into long layoffs. He is long for the division and uses it well but he doesn’t have much in the way of knockout power. Moicano is primarily known as a grappler with five of his 10 career wins coming via submission.

UFC on Fox 24 Betting Odds
  • Demetrious Johnson -850
  • Wilson Reis +525
Odds as of April 12 at Sportsbook
  • Rose Namajunas -140
  • Michelle Waterson +110
  • Jacare Souza -250
  • Robert Whittaker +195
  • Jeremy Stephens -190
  • Renato Moicano +155
  • Roy Nelson +110
  • Alexander Volkov -140
  • Patrick Williams +300
  • Tom Duquesnoy -400
  • Bobby Green +250
  • Rashid Magomedov -325
  • Louis Smolka +230
  • Tim Elliott -300
  • Aljamain Sterling -225
  • Augusto Mendes +175
  • Devin Clark -140
  • Jake Collier +110
  • Anthony Smith +230
  • Andrew Sanchez -300
  • Zak Cummings -400
  • Nathan Coy +300
  • Ashlee Evans-Smith -165
  • Ketlen Vieira +135
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