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Usman vs Covington 2 Odds & Prediction

Kamaru Usman (right) is favored in the Usman vs Covington odds for their rematch.

It has been just shy of two years since Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman squared off in the main event of UFC 245, with Usman walking away with a fifth-round knockout in a highly competitive match. 

These bitter rivals are set to run it back for the UFC welterweight championship at UFC 268 on November 6 at Madison Square Garden. 

Online sportsbook Bovada has the Usman vs Covington odds for their rematch and has listed the champion, Kamaru, as the -310 favorite with Colby the +240 underdog.

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington 2 Odds

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Betting Odds
FighterOdds
Kamaru Usman-310
Colby Covington+240

Odds as of November 5 at Bovada

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For a more in-depth look at the Usman vs Covington 2 odds, our sports betting calculator tells us the -310 odds for the champ represent an implied win probability of 75.61 percent while the challenger’s implied win probability is 29.41 percent.

If you’re looking to wager on this highly anticipated rematch, head over to our How to Bet UFC page to assist you in the steps to get in on the action. Additionally, our sportsbook review page is a handy tool to help you choose where to bet on Usman vs Covington 2. You can see all of the UFC fight news here at Odds Shark. 

Usman vs Covington Odds Analysis

Perhaps this line is a little startling to see at first, given how hotly contested their first bout was, with the outcome hinging on the final round. 

That said, when their first bout was announced for UFC 245, the line was very similar to this one, with Usman pegged as the -300 favorite and then bet down to the final line of Kamaru -175 and Colby +145. I anticipate this line will once again move in favor of Covington when people start wagering on this match.

Usman vs Covington Betting Preview

We haven’t seen or heard much from “Chaos” Covington since that loss to Usman in December 2019 as he has competed only once since. Now, that one appearance was a dominant one, stopping former champion Tyron Woodley in the fifth round in September 2020 for his first stoppage victory in four years.

In their first bout, the two standout wrestlers decided to duke it out on the feet for five rounds. It was spirited and dirty, with intentional eye pokes, groin shots and all-out trading leather. Perhaps in this rematch, one or both of these men are going to rely more on their area of strength, wrestling.

The Champ Has Gotten Better

While Covington has been silent over the past two years, “The Nigerian Nightmare” has been taking names, defending the title three times, twice against Jorge Masvidal and once against Gilbert Burns. In the two most recent title defenses, Usman scored knockout victories, including a vicious right hand that turned Masvidal’s head around. 

This striking evolution by Usman can be attributed to him changing camps to train under head coach Trevor Whitman. Whitman also coaches women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas, who fights Zhang Weili in another rematch on the same card, and Justin Gaethje, fighting Michael Chandler in the featured bout of the night.

Usman vs Covington 2 Pick

We have footage of Usman progressing, with back-to-back knockouts and three of his last four victories coming in that manner, including the win over Covington. That said, surely Chaos has been fine-tuning his striking as well and while we haven’t seen it, that doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

I do believe the odds should favor the champ, but I see a lot of value on the challenger with their last bout coming down to the final round, which could have gone either way. Could the wrestling severely change the look of this fight? I think so, but who does it favor?

Prediction: Colby Covington (+240) via decision