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UFC: Usman vs Covington Odds Analysis

Usman vs Covington Odds Analysis

Following a terrific performance against Robbie Lawler, Colby “Chaos” Covington is getting his UFC welterweight title shot against Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman.

The two have been destined to collide for a couple of years now in what could be a close fight, but online sportsbook Bovada has the champion, Usman, as the favorite at -175 with the self-proclaimed “people’s” champion, Covington, coming back at +145. This fight will be headlining UFC 245 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on December 14.

For a look at the co-main events of the evening, here’s a look at Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski for the featherweight belt and Amanda Nunes vs Germaine de Randamie for the women’s bantamweight title.

For my full main card breakdown and picks, here’s my UFC 245 article.

Event Information: UFC 245: Usman vs Covington
  • Date/Time: December 14, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: PPV, ESPN+

Odds Analysis

If the odds remain the same, this would mark only the second time that Covington has been a plus-money underdog in the UFC. Chaos closed as a very slight dog against Demian Maia with odds of +105 and Colby won that bout by unanimous decision.

Usman has been favored in nine of his last 10 fights in the Octagon, with only his last fight for the title against Tyron Woodley seeing The Nigerian Nightmare as an underdog. Of course, he put on a dominant performance in that fight to win the title and is now a perfect 10-0 in the UFC.

I was really shocked to see the odds when they first opened with Usman as a -300 favorite and Covington coming back at +230. The line moved quickly in Covington’s favor to where the odds are now, but I figured they should have been much closer and judging by the early line movement, you might be able to get the champion at a better number closer to the event.

How Will This Fight Play Out?

It’s extremely hard to predict how this fight will go as these two competitors have very similar styles in how they wrestle, use clinch work against the cage and put on a tremendous pace to usually earn a decisive decision victory. Neither fighter has tremendous power in their hands. Usman has finished just two of his 10 UFC fights, while Covington has finished four of his nine wins in the Octagon.

I give the edge to Usman overall, though, because of his size. Both men will look to have a strong grappling match and constantly touch the other with strikes that pile up and tire out the opponent. Usman is quite a bit bigger than Covington, which will give him an advantage in those clinches and grappling exchanges. Chaos may have slightly better conditioning, which could give him the edge in the later rounds, but it may be too little, too late at that point.

Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington Betting Odds
Kamaru Usman-175
Colby Covington+145

Odds as of December 13 at Bovada