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Canelo Alvarez vs Avni Yildirim Odds & Prediction: Canelo Huge Fave in Tune-Up Fight

Canelo (right) is favored in the Canelo vs Yildirim odds.

It was a frustrating 2020 for Canelo Alvarez, the No. 2 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, much like it was for many across the globe due to inactivity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, he was able to finish the year off in fine fashion by topping Callum Smith to win two titles.

Alvarez looks to be more active in 2021, starting with a defense of his WBA (Super), WBC and The Ring super middleweight titles against Avni Yildirim on February 27.

Looking at the Canelo vs Yildirim odds, it is clear that this isn’t much more than a tune-up fight for the champion, who is a huge favorite. Canelo vs Yildirim will take place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida and will be broadcast on DAZN.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released Canelo vs Yildirim odds, with Alvarez listed as a -10000 favorite and the challenger coming back as a +1600 underdog. This means you would have to wager $10,000 to profit $100 on a Canelo win, while a $100 bet on a Yildirim win would profit you $1,600.

Canelo vs Yildirim Odds

FighterOdds
Canelo Alvarez-10000
Avni Yildirim+1600

Odds as of February 25 at Bovada

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Looking at the Canelo vs Yildirim odds with our sports betting calculator, Alvarez’s odds of -10000 represent an implied win probability of 99.01 percent while Yildirim’s implied win probability is 5.88 percent.

New to betting on the fights? Be sure to check out our great How to Bet on Boxing guide. Also, keep an eye on our boxing odds page for the latest, up-to-date Canelo Alvarez vs Avni Yildirim betting odds.

Canelo vs Yildirim Odds Analysis

It’s not very often that a guy gets a world title fight following a more than two-year layoff and coming off a loss but that’s the case for “The Turkish Wolf.” Meanwhile, after not competing for 13 months, Canelo knocked off some potential ring rust with a decisive decision win over Callum Smith in December, and is wasting no time hopping back into the ring two months later.

The Longest Odds Yildirim Has Ever Faced

Though this isn’t the first time that the Turkish Wolf has come in as a plus-money option, it is the first time that he will be an underdog to this degree. In his last bout against Anthony Dirrell, which Yildirim lost via technical decision in the 10th due to a doctor’s stoppage on an unintentional head clash, he was a +350 underdog.

He was also a +450 underdog in his first pro defeat to Chris Eubank Jr. in 2017. Yildirim is now 0-2 as an underdog; will that trend continue on February 27?

Alvarez Once Again the Clear Chalk

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Alvarez has never been a favorite to this extent. He has been a four-digit favorite in the past, closing as a -1100 favorite vs Daniel Jacobs, -2500 vs Rocky Fielding and -1500 vs Liam Smith, but the -10000 odds is a new level.

Now, if you’re new to betting on the sport of boxing and are just looking for a win, sure, place a bet on Canelo to win, but it’s not really worth the investment. If you placed a $100 bet on Alvarez at -10000, you would profit a whopping $1. For a little better juice, I recommend waiting for a prop bet such as Alvarez to win by knockout or even betting on the round in which the fight will end.

Canelo vs Yildirim Preview

Although this isn’t an eye-popping fight for Canelo, Yildirim is the WBC mandatory challenger so if Alvarez wants to hold onto that strap, he must defend it. Additionally, as I said earlier, this is a stay-active, tune-up fight for what surely will be a bigger contest on Cinco de Mayo, likely against Billy Joe Saunders.

What Should We Expect From Canelo?

The champ took this bout just over a month prior to the fight and there are already talks of his unification title fight with Saunders in May. That can be a little concerning as you never want to have a fighter looking ahead or not staying focused on the task at hand.

That said, when you are the No. 2 pound-for-pound boxer in the world (No. 1, in my opinion), having future plans is not necessarily a bad thing, especially going against an opponent he should wipe the floor with. That Yildirim will be the slightly taller fighter plays into the hands of Canelo, whose horrific body shots can completely dismantle an opponent, especially if they overextend and he counters.

I thought Alvarez looked spectacular against Callum Smith in December when he overcame a six-inch height disadvantage and a 7.5-inch reach disadvantage. Canelo will likely make short work of Yildirim, going at him in similar fashion to the Rocky Fielding bout to get him out of there in a hurry and start gearing up for that Saunders fight.

Does Yildirim Have an Upset in his Pocket?

It will be interesting to see what improvements Yildirim has made in his more than two years off since his last competition. At just 29 years old, a fighter can learn a lot and recover as well in that duration and come back as a fresh worthy opponent.

However, The Turkish Wolf’s style does not spark a lot of confidence in me. He tends to walk forward, get into the pocket and exchange hands. Canelo is a master at that game with outstanding head movement and counters. Yildirim on the other hand has a fairly open defense in close range and absorbs a lot of punishment – you can only take so much vs Alvarez.

Canelo vs Yildirim Pick

Anything less than a stoppage here for Canelo will be a disappointment. Yildirim is there to be hit, doesn’t have great defense and prefers to go shot for shot with his opponent rather than sticking and moving. Alvarez is simply on another level and he will show that in this fight in a quick and dominant display of boxing.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez (-10000) via knockout (-1400) in Round 1 (+700), 2 (+600) or 3 (+550)