Canelo Alvarez (left) is favored vs Jermell Charlo

Alvarez vs Charlo Odds & Picks: A Weight Class Mismatch?

Who's up next?

Jermell Charlo will be the next man to challenge Canelo Alvarez for his undisputed super middleweight titles Sept. 30 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Alvarez is a -435 favorite in this fight, giving him the shortest odds he's seen in years.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Betting Odds

Canelo Alvarez-435
Jermell Charlo+330

Odds as of Sept. 26

Per our odds calculator, Alvarez's -435 status equates to a win probability of 81.31%, and a $100 bet on him pays $122.99. The underdog Charlo gets a 23.26% chance and a $100 bet yields $430. 

This is a big fight and things can get confusing, so if you need a refresher, hit up our How To Bet on Boxing page. 

Alvarez vs Charlo Betting Preview: Who Wins?

There's a lot to watch for in this fight.

How Charlo Wins

Charlo's weight jump can't be ignored here. He's moving from 154 pounds to challenge Alvarez at 168 pounds, putting him at a disadvantage.

Weight discrepancy aside, Charlo possesses excellent offensive fight IQ. In this fight vs Alvarez, he'll need to step up and fire away with combos. If he makes Canelo respect him early, we could see the momentum change. Alvarez is slippery and patient, but if he starts trading back, watch for Charlo to parry with the jab and then snap that heavy left hook at his opponent's chin. 

How Alvarez Wins

Time to welcome a little kid to the playground.

Charlo's putting himself at a lot of risk challenging Alvarez at super middleweight. And the size difference helps the Mexican in multiple ways. Firstly, Canelo's quick-twitch shots to the body will rack up more damage. On top of that, his jabs and softer punches should carry a little more zest. 

But don't expect Alvarez to swing out of his shoes. He'll win this fight the way he does every bout: gliding in and out and choosing windows of opportunity.

Alvarez vs Charlo Betting Pick

My pick is Alvarez by decision. Until this bet bites me, I'll keep riding it, and you should, too. 

Pick: Alvarez by decision (-140)