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F1 Championship Odds: F1 Season On Line in Finale

Mercedes is heavily favored in the F1 championship odds with Lewis Hamilton expected to top the 2021 drivers’ standings.

There is nothing separating Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen in the F1 drivers standings. That’s not hyperbole – both drivers have exactly 369.5 points. With just one race remaining, in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, a fabulous 22-race season draws to a close. Who has the advantage? Odds Shark breaks down the F1 championship odds below.

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According to the F1 championship odds at BetOnline Sportsbook, Mercedes is favored to win the constructors championship and Lewis Hamilton is the heavy favorite in the drivers championship at most online sportsbooks.

F1 Drivers Championship Odds

Odds to win 2021 Drivers World championship
Lewis Hamilton-200
Max Verstappen+160

Odds as of December 9 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Current Points Tally

  • • Max Verstappen: 369.5 points
  • • Lewis Hamilton: 369.5 points

The Favorite To Win The 2021 Drivers Championship

Lewis Hamilton (-200)

Hamilton has been in inspired form since his disqualification in Brazil. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff suggested at that point that the lion had been awakened. Clearly, he hasn’t been wrong because that was the catalyst for Mercedes and Hamilton.

Hamilton went on to win in Brazil, then in Qatar, then in Saudi Arabia. All that has meant he has climbed to level on points with Verstappen. In Brazil, Hamilton took a new power unit. These are all influential factors, especially with Mercedes’ straight-line speed.

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Hamilton requires just one more point than Verstappen to win the drivers championship. He does not need to win the race but you can rest assured that he will be eager to make it four in a row to close out a spectacular season in spectacular fashion.

The Underdog To Win The 2021 Drivers Championship

Max Verstappen (+160)

Verstappen has one small factor going in his favor: If Hamilton does not finish this race, he wins the championship. That means that if both drivers crash out, as was the case in Monza, Verstappen will win the championship.

There is no implication that Verstappen will defend, elbows out, under any circumstances, even if there is contact with Hamilton, but it does seem like that may be his best chance. Verstappen has had a fantastic season and would be a deserving winner if he can creep past a surging Hamilton.

Red Bull will need to be at their best but that hasn’t been the case since Verstappen drifted from P3 to P1 in turn 1 in Brazil. As a result, these F1 championship odds of +160 are probably fair for Verstappen considering the factors at play.

“Fighting against Lewis in general has been good for the sport. It’s a young guy against the established world champion, multiple world champion, and I think it’s just very exciting,” Verstappen said. “And for me at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter if you’re fighting against someone who’s my age or a world champion, you know both of them are great drivers.”

Betting Strategy

This is as tricky as they come. On one hand, Hamilton is simply too strong, too powerful in that Mercedes car. He has momentum, he has experience, he has the technical advantage. He is understandably the heavy favorite to beat Verstappen.

On the other hand, there are a few factors in Verstappen’s corner, including the direct fact that if Hamilton crashes with basically any driver on the grid, Verstappen wins his maiden F1 championship. And don’t forget these compelling F1 championship odds for Verstappen.

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On paper, there are simply too many factors in favor of Hamilton. Even the high, lucrative odds for Verstappen aren’t swaying us, simply based on how masterfully Hamilton has driven his Mercedes car in the last three races.

Free practice for Abu Dhabi begins on Friday but that may not provide as much insight as qualifying. However, sportsbooks are likely to remove this market ahead of qualifying for one final time this season. I would place my bets before then, and the selection in my bet slip would be Lewis Hamilton to maintain his dominance over the rest of F1.

F1 Constructors Championship Odds 

Odds to win 2021 constructors championship
Red Bull+1000

Odds as of December 9 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Current Points Tally

  • • Mercedes: 587.5 points
  • • Red Bull: 559.5 points

The Favorite To Win The 2021 F1 Constructors Championship

Mercedes (-2000)

A fantastic race for Mercedes in Jeddah, which included P1 and P3, has ensured that Red Bull may not be able to pull off something miraculous after all. A 28-point lead is simply too much, especially considering one of Mercedes’ drivers is Hamilton. These F1 championship odds have shortened drastically and rapidly.

“I think the constructors championship we made a really decent step, a good one, but one must not forget that we have just equalized on points (in the drivers championship), so we are all cheery and that is good because you have to enjoy these moments,” Wolff said after Saudi Arabia.

The Underdog To Win The 2021 Constructors Championship

Red Bull (+1000)

Red Bull was not helped by Sergio Perez ending in the barriers in Jeddah. That ensured they would pick up points only through one driver, who was sandwiched by Mercedes on the podium.

Red Bull will need at least one Mercedes driver not to finish the race to stand any chance at the constructors championship, but as team principal Christian Horner suggested, Red Bull’s race against Mercedes is all but run.

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“This team has put together a phenomenal campaign this year, we’ve won 10 races,” Horner said. “We’ve taken Mercedes – and who would have thought that coming into this year – we’ve taken them all the way into the final race; constructors, we’re on the back foot, we need a miracle to win that.”

Betting Strategy

This is simply not worth it. Red Bull are very unlikely to make up 28 points on the world champions and Mercedes’ F1 championship odds are just not high enough. Stay away from this market at this stage of the season.