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F1 Championship Odds: Mercedes, Hamilton Compelling Options

Lewis Hamilton is one of the favorites in F1 Championship odds.

Mercedes’ lead in the F1 constructors championship over Red Bull has now ballooned to double digits while Max Verstappen’s lead over Lewis Hamilton is just five points in the drivers standings after the Italian Grand Prix. Odds Shark breaks down the F1 championship odds for both constructors and drivers after yet another memorable race in Monza.

According to the F1 championship odds at , Mercedes (-160) is heavily favored to repeat its dominance over the sport with Red Bull’s odds lengthening to +120 after Monza.

Want a reliable betting guide on F1 betting? Take a look at Odds Shark’s dedicated F1 page.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2021 F1 championship:

Odds To Win 2021 Constructors Championship

Odds to win constructors championship
Red Bull+120

Odds as of September 21 at 

A Quick Recap

Half points from Spa have made the F1 standings look a bit chaotic. Still, Mercedes, with 362.5 points, has an 18-point advantage over Red Bull with 344.5 points. McLaren is currently third with 215 points, followed by Ferrari’s 201.5 points. That means there are only two real options in the F1 constructors championship odds.

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The Favorite To Win The 2021 F1 Constructors Championship

Mercedes (-160)

Mercedes is currently leading the F1 constructors championship odds because of Valtteri Bottas’ dominance over Sergio Perez more than Lewis Hamilton’s consistency. However, this is a team sport, and so both drivers have had to make adjustments, compromises and changes in order to benefit the team.

An 18-point advantage is not too much in F1 because as Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff pointed out ahead of Silverstone, the difference is only a DNF away. That can also prove to be a tangible and sustainable enough difference for Mercedes to ensure it can stave off Red Bull.

Verstappen will have a grid penalty for Sochi after his move on Lewis Hamilton in Monza, which could have proved to be one of the most dangerous overtakes in the history of F1 if the sport’s new Halo feature was not available.

“I would say in football you call it a tactical foul,” Wolff said. “(Max) probably knew that if Lewis stays ahead, that is the race win possibly. It was clear to Max in there that it would end up in a crash and I think if we don’t manage this in the right way, it’s going to continue. We’ve had a high-speed crash in Silverstone, we’ve had one car ending up on top of the other on Lewis’ head here. How far can we go? Maybe next we have a high-speed crash and land on each other.”

Mercedes has also announced that Bottas will be moving on to Alfa Romeo at the end of this season. That can often lead a team down a slippery slope but it’s hard to say that it wasn’t coming; it was always on the horizon with Bottas’ discernible lack of race wins. That also seems to have spurred Bottas on, evident in his performance in Monza, where he won qualifying and raced back from 20th (due to a grid penalty for changing a power unit) to third to finish on the podium.

The Underdog To Win The 2021 Constructors Championship

Red Bull (+120)

Team principal Christian Horner can praise Verstappen as much as he wants but he will be displeased with Sergio Perez’s performance in the Red Bull in races that his car has been strong. Sure, Perez stayed solid and won in Baku, but he should be closer to the podium in more races than he has been. It seems to be the curse of the first year for Red Bull’s second driver after a tough integration for Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon and now Perez.

Red Bull will need Perez to start finishing on the podium more often but they might have to wait for Turkey because their overall points output in Sochi will be lower on account of Verstappen’s penalty. That will result in both drivers fighting for middle spots in the top 10, which might mean both Mercedes drivers finish above both Red Bull drivers.

In qualifying, Bottas has been 0.15 seconds behind Hamilton on average this season. Perez has been 0.4 seconds behind Verstappen on average. In a sport of very fine margins, that difference is not subtle but defining.

“It has been a Mercedes stronghold,” Horner said of the upcoming Sochi race. “For me, Monza and Sochi, I’ve them marked down mentally as Mercedes circuits so it will be a challenge. We have the grid penalty to take for Max too, but in Sochi it’s not such a handicap because of the strength of the tow down to turn 1. I was looking through the results at the Russian Grand Prix and back in 2018, Max went from last to first before needing to make his pit stop.”

Betting Strategy

The F1 championship odds have moved up and down significantly since the start of the season as Verstappen and Hamilton have gone at each other. However, the differentiating factor in the F1 constructors championship odds seems to be the second driver, with Perez simply unable to stay abreast with Bottas in terms of collecting points.

Hamilton and Verstappen will fight all the way but Bottas is more likely to stay well ahead of Perez, at least based on the evidence from the first 60 percent of this season. As a result, the best bet is to back Mercedes to win the constructors title, even at these F1 championship odds.

Odds To Win 2021 Drivers World Championship

Odds to win Drivers World championship
Max Verstappen-130
Lewis Hamilton+100
Sergio Perez+20000
Valtteri Bottas+20000

Odds as of September 21 at 

A Quick Recap

With 226.5 points, Verstappen has a five-point lead on Hamilton. Bottas, with 141 points, is third in the drivers standings followed by McLaren’s Lando Norris (132 points) and Perez (118 points).

The Favorite To Win The 2021 Drivers Championship

Max Verstappen (-130)

A five-point gap between Verstappen and Hamilton seems like nothing. They have both traded blows, some more iconic than others, which is likely to ensure that this race goes right to the end, plausibly in Abu Dhabi.

Verstappen has found momentum in certain races, including winning three races in a tripleheader across France and Austria. His Red Bull has been in blistering speed along the straights this season, which was evident from his performances in Monaco and Baku.

However, he will be vying against one of the strongest drivers in the history of the sport in Hamilton, who seems to have picked up the pace after a memorable win in Silverstone. There are more factors, both tangible and intangible, to consider as these two drivers move into the final sector of one of the best seasons in F1.

“Today, a lot of things went wrong,” Verstappen said after Monza. “The start went wrong, the strategy went wrong, the pit stops went wrong. So, a lot of things to analyze. I think overall, we were always quite strong in a lot of things, but today a few weaknesses which we’ll try to analyze and do better.”

The Underdog To Win The 2021 Drivers Championship

Lewis Hamilton (+100)

To be able to bet on Lewis Hamilton at F1 championship odds of +100 is always a valuable choice. To be able to call Hamilton an underdog when he is just five points behind the leader is a testament to Verstappen’s skill this season. However, from a betting standpoint, that is also an incredible value proposition.

Hamilton will have his partner Bottas, who is well familiarized with the Sochi layout, to help him along the tow to turn 1. Mercedes has not lost a race at Sochi since 2014. A win in Sochi will ensure that Hamilton regains the lead in the drivers standings. With Verstappen having to serve a three-place grid penalty for the crash in Monza, don’t bet against Hamilton to do just that.

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“I don’t think I’ve ever been hit on the head by a car before and it’s quite a shock for me, because I don’t know if you’ve seen the image but my head really is quite far forward,” Hamilton said of his crash with Verstappen.

“Now, we’re both top drivers, well experienced. I know that I can’t go around the outside of Max; you’ve seen it in Imola, he runs you out of road, you’ve seen it in turn 4, he runs you out of road. So, in all instances, I’ve moved out of the way to avoid incidents and gone over the curbs.”

Betting Strategy

Tempting as they may be on the F1 championship oddsboard, don’t bet on any driver apart from Verstappen and Hamilton. Now, here is where your strategy will matter. Hamilton is expected to gather more points than Verstappen in Sochi, which will either reduce his deficit or help him take a sizable lead in the standings. That will result in Hamilton’s F1 championship odds shortening. And vice versa for Verstappen.

This is likely to happen, and that should also influence your betting strategy. If you think Hamilton will win, now is the right time to bet on him. If you think Verstappen has too much strength, then now is the wrong time to bet on him. Personally, I feel Hamilton has the edge because later in the season, you might see Wolff asking Bottas to back off in order to allow Hamilton an advantage. Hamilton’s F1 championship odds are extremely compelling too.

Odds Shark will return after a few races to update you with the new F1 championship odds and provide a new betting perspective. Stay tuned to this page for more updates.