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F1 Spanish Grand Prix Odds: Hamilton Favored To Win

Lewis Hamilton is the favorite in the F1 Spanish Grand Prix odds.

Lewis Hamilton is starting to pull away from the rest of the pack in the F1 circuit. He was close to flawless in a typically exemplary win in Portimao on Sunday. Will he be able to replicate that success a week later at one of his favorite venues? Or will Max Verstappen challenge the might of Hamilton? We break it down as the F1 calendar moves to Barcelona this coming weekend.

At BetOnline, the F1 odds heavily favor Hamilton (+110) to win at Barcelona. Odds for Verstappen (+160), Valtteri Bottas (+700), Sergio Perez (+1000) and Charles Leclerc (+5000) have increased as well.

Want a reliable betting guide on F1 betting? Take a look at Odds Shark’s dedicated F1 page.

F1 Odds to Win the Spanish Grand Prix

Odds to win the Spanish Grand Prix
DriverOdds
Lewis Hamilton+110
Max Verstappen+160
Valtteri Bottas+700
Sergio Perez+1000
Charles Leclerc+5000
Lando Norris+5000
Carlos Sainz+6600
Daniel Ricciardo+6600
Pierre Gasly+10000
Esteban Ocon+25000
Fernando Alonso+25000
Lance Stroll+25000
Sebastian Vettel+50000
Yuki Tsunoda+50000
Antonio Giovinazzi+200000
George Russell+200000
Kimi Raikkonen+200000
Nicholas Latifi+200000
Mick Schumacher+400000
Nikita Mazepin+400000

Odds as of May 3 at BetOnline

Previous race

Considering Hamilton started at P2, his win cannot technically be termed a wire-to-wire win. However, from the time he overtook teammate Valtteri Bottas, he was unstoppable. Despite wearing his tires down – he started on the C2 compound – with incredible speed in the early stages, he pushed his car as required to sustain that lead. Such was his dominance that he eventually won by 29.148 seconds as Verstappen finished second.

Bottas, who started at P1, failed to hold on to his lead, unable to stave off Hamilton or Verstappen down the DRS stretches of Portimao. Red Bull’s Sergio Perez finished fourth while Lando Norris in the McLaren came in fifth in yet another solid, impressive performance.

Hamilton Leads the F1 Odds Again

There were three key instances in Portimao that describe nicely why Hamilton (+110) and Verstappen (+160) currently lead and will continue to lead the F1 odds through the season. First, Verstappen capitalized on Hamilton just after the safety car exited. He used the DRS stretch down turn 1 to temporarily move from P3 to P2. Hamilton was obviously not satisfied with that and used an error from Verstappen to reclaim that position a few laps later at the same turn.

It was only a matter of time before Hamilton did the same to his Mercedes teammate and move to first. There were only three opportunities in the race between these two drivers, and they made use of them all. That technical skill is why they will be so hard to beat, even in Barcelona.

“I think Max made a mistake at some point through the lap which was perfect and I knew that was going to be the lap that I would be as close as I could to him in the last sector,” Hamilton said after the race. “And then with Valtteri, I had to make the move early on before the tires were destroyed. I managed to just get him at turn 1, just right on the limit. Great race”

For the Spanish Grand Prix, there are a few factors to consider. Since 2017, no driver other than Hamilton has won at this circuit. He will also take plenty of confidence and momentum from a spectacular race at Portugal, which included an error and making up for that in a timely fashion. It is no surprise at all that Hamilton is leading the F1 odds for Barcelona. His implied probability to win the Spanish Grand Prix according to our sports betting calculator is 47.62 percent.

Left-Field Predictions for Spanish Grand Prix

Hamilton’s continued excellence at the top of the F1 grid is creating an interesting dynamic. One of those narratives is Verstappen slowly moving into the category as the rest of the drivers when compared to Hamilton. He started the season at about even F1 odds as Hamilton. This is changing rapidly.

He started at Portimao with odds of +125, which have now increased to +150. Verstappen is not a “left-field pick” because he can easily win any race with his skill alone. However, Hamilton is starting to make other drivers look like mere formalities in an F1 race. Verstappen’s implied probability to win at Barcelona is 40 percent.

Bottas (+700) has been a bit underwhelming this season after a solid 2020. He was unable to prevent Hamilton or Verstappen from dominating the DRS zones in Portimao. Even though he is driving an outstanding car, he might need a lot more than good aerodynamics to win in Barcelona.

Sergio Perez (+1000) has been steady without under- or overperforming this season. In the Red Bull, he finished fourth in Portugal. Like Bottas, he will need to have a flawless race to even stand a chance against the top two.

Lando Norris (+5000) has continued to impress through this calendar and could be a left-field pick for a podium finish.

Charles Leclerc (+5000) has failed to meet the expected standards this season. He finished at P6 in Portugal but a lot more is needed from Ferrari and Leclerc in order to compete with the rising challengers at McLaren.

“I’ve been struggling a lot in free practice, qualifying and finally I managed to do some good laps during the race,” Leclerc said after the race on Sunday. “So personally, quite happy but I cannot be satisfied with P6 and we need to keep working to understand what happened with the medium tires.”

History of the Spanish Grand Prix

The Spanish Grand Prix holds a rich history in the F1 calendar. The first Grand Prix was back in 1991. Nigel Mansell and Ayrton Senna fought admirably in a tight race before the former eventually prevailed.

This circuit was built as part of the 1992 Barcelona Olympics development program with the foundation stone being set in 1989. The first car race was part of the 1991 Spanish Touring Car Championship. Only two weeks later, Formula 1 made its entry.

Race Technicals

The circuit length at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is 4.675 kilometers. The total race distance will be 308.424 kilometers divided into 66 laps. The circuit’s shape resembles a triangle along with wave-like curves on either side.

Importantly for your F1 betting, there are two DRS detection zones, where drivers will fancy compensating places. The first is between turns 8 and 9 and the second between turns 15 and 16. Toward the start of turn 1 is the speed trap. The challenge for drivers will be the C-shaped turn 3, which could differentiate the cars because of its technicality.

Forecasted Weather Conditions

Weather conditions are crucial in F1 betting, particularly if you’re opting for markets such as fastest lap. Soft tires are the fastest but they won’t necessarily be used if rain is expected. Teams can use a maximum of three wet tires per race event. For Barcelona, these factors become even more crucial because there is a chance of rain.

The probability of precipitation on race day in Barcelona is 25 to 40 percent. You can expect tire strategy and usage to be a vital factor on Sunday.

Betting Strategy for Spanish Grand Prix

This might sound like a broken record through the entirety of the season, but Hamilton all the way. There will be races where he isn’t quite up to the mark but F1 betting can often come down to logical decisions. He is the best technical driver on the F1 circuit, driving one of the best cars. There is a bit of reasoning behind this decision.

Verstappen will certainly compete so you wouldn’t be wrong to save a percentage of your investment for him, especially after a steady lead-up into the season. However, unless something miraculous takes place, your bet slip should be restricted to these two drivers to win the Spanish Grand Prix.

We’ll return early next week to update you about the Spanish Grand Prix and provide a fresh betting perspective for the Monaco Grand Prix.