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BMW Championship Prop Bets: Garcia Could Dismantle Caves Valley

Sergio Garcia could be poised for a big weekend at the BMW Championship.

With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the BMW Championship. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your BMW Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

Caves Valley in Owings Mills, Maryland, is set to host the second event of the FedExCup playoffs. The top 70 players on the PGA Tour will make the short trip from New Jersey as they look to position themselves inside the top 30 in order to gain entry into the Tour Championship in Atlanta for the FedExCup finale.

Measuring north of 7,500 yards, at first glance, this Tom Fazio design does not present any immediate danger. While water is prevalent on all four par 3s and on seven holes in total, players should have their way with this par 72. In order to do so, competitors will need a combination of strength and accuracy off the tee. Well-placed fairway bunkers line landing areas, forcing players to either attempt to carry them, play to narrow zones or lay back.

With distance being an advantage, I reckon the first option is the most likely for players, which will give them the opportunity to attack pins and go low. As is typical these days on the PGA Tour, a winning score somewhere in the 20-under range is likely to unfold as the week progresses. Not only that, but all 70 players will have the opportunity to play 72 holes as the BMW Championship will not feature a cut, similar to a WGC event or even the Olympic Games.

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BMW Championship Prop Bets: What To Look For

The top 30 players at week’s end will punch their ticket to East Lake GC for the Tour Championship. With a slew of benefits that come with reaching Atlanta, players will go for broke, knowing a poor start won’t determine their weekend plans.

The FedExCup playoffs isn’t the only thing at stake this week at the BMW Championship as it also signifies the last qualifying event for the Ryder Cup. With teams rounding into form, there are a number of players who may feel uneasy about their prospects of being selected for their respective squads at Whistling Straits.

On Team Europe, Sergio Garcia comes to mind as a player who could use a big week to impress the Irish captain. With three selections in his back pocket, Padraig Harrington will need to decipher how exactly he wants his team’s composition to look. Not only is Garcia on the outside looking in, but so too are Justin Rose, Ian Poulter and Robert MacIntyre, who will not have the luxury of playing this week, having failed to qualify.

Things get a bit dicier when the spotlight is flipped onto Team USA. With a farm of talent, as is typically the case, some have been making arguments that team cohesion will be the eventual difference-maker for the Americans. With six captain’s selections, Steve Stricker has plenty of options to weigh as his decisions before a ball has even been struck will determine the outcome.

At Bovada, tournament favorite Jon Rahm is -500 to finish inside the top 20. These odds imply an 83.33 percent probability of him being able to do so, based on our Odds Calculator. As for us, we’ll venture a bit further down the oddsboard. Last week, Maverick McNealy almost came through for a backdoor top-20 for us at the Northern Trust, nearly extending the nice run that we are on in this article. Let’s start a new streak with players heading to my neck of the woods as we outline our BMW Championship prop bets.

BMW Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Sergio Garcia (+400 to finish inside the top 10):

Well, we discussed him at the top of this article and we’ll talk about the fiery Spaniard some more as Garcia’s skill set has the opportunity to propel him to a strong finish at the BMW Championship. He’ll need one not only for his Ryder Cup chances, but also his Tour Championship aspirations as he is currently outside the top 30 despite winning earlier this season in Mississippi.

Coming off a missed cut at the Northern Trust, some may have concerns, but when looking closely, it was really just the first round that was his undoing. Carding a first round of 4-over 75, Garcia rebounded on Friday with a 3-under 68. Gaining strokes across all tee-to-green metrics in Round 2, the Sanderson Farms winner was just an adequate putting round away from playing himself into the weekend and fully recovering from his Thursday debacle.

Alas, it was not meant to be, but a few poor rounds in his last two outings won’t muddy the waters too much. Before a T-26 finish in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Garcia had five consecutive top-20 finishes worldwide, two of which came at the U.S. Open and the Open.

This stretch of golf has been on the shoulders of a strong tee-to-green presence, posting north of five strokes tee to green in each of those starts. As it normally does, Garcia’s chances will come down to what he does with the putter. With some woeful performances this summer, just an average week with the flat stick should be enough to see him contend and makes for one of our best BMW Championship prop bets.

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Jhonattan Vegas (+500 to finish inside the top 10):

Much like our BMW Championship outright selections, our prop bets will feature a similar train of thought. Enjoying one of the best summers of his career, the Venezuelan missed the weekend at Liberty National, his first missed cut in over four months. In what was a pedestrian two-round total of even-par, a poor putting performance was his eventual undoing in New Jersey.

Before his play at the Northern Trust, he had posted more than five strokes gained tee to green in each of his starts this summer. A historically strong player from off the tee, he has been able to add sharp iron play to his repertoire. Knowing he can take advantage of at least some of the holes solely with his driver, if his irons stay put, he should have a good outing, thus making for one of our best bets in BMW Championship prop bets.

He now comes to Baltimore on the outside looking in as Vegas is well outside the top 30 that will gain entry into the Tour Championship. Needing a strong finish in order to advance to Atlanta, he will need to have a short-term memory. Yet, maybe the missed cut wasn’t all that bad as Vegas was able to arrive at Caves Valley much, much earlier than his counterparts. Perhaps only a slight edge, it’s an edge nevertheless, and with the top 70 players in the field, we’ve seen that one single stroke can be so crucial come Sunday evening.

Phil Mickelson (+300 to finish inside the top 20):

It’s a big week at the BMW Championship for everyone’s favorite PGA Championship winner. Making the field by a thin margin, not only does Mickelson have work to do to make the Tour Championship, but more importantly, to make Team USA for the Ryder Cup. Whether it is a valid argument or not, in his mind, you ought to believe that he thinks there is a slight chance he is selected for September’s squad.

With one last opportunity to leave a good impression, Caves Valley could be a course that fits Mickelson’s game. Lefty has had more than his fair share of success at Quail Hollow, a Tom Fazio design that he has always likened to Augusta National. The first-round leader in Charlotte earlier this season, perhaps a similarly fast start could be in order in Baltimore.

And while the missed cut at Liberty National may not sit well with some, I’ll take the positive that he looked strong on the greens. Always a volatile option, he should be able to utilize his length off the tee to set up ample wedge opportunities. Before the Northern Trust, the ball-striking wasn’t in all that poor a spot.

En route to a T-17 finish in Memphis, he posted +2.5 SG: Ball-striking. In a field that is composed in a very similar manner, boasting limited competitors and no cut, something in that neighborhood could be a possibility. It’s because of this that Mickelson makes for one of our best bets for the BMW Championship as he’ll only need to get the better of 49 players for this one to cross the finish line.