With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the BMW Championship. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your BMW Championship prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware, is set to host the second event of the FedExCup playoffs. The top 68 players on the PGA Tour will make the trip up from Memphis as they look to position themselves inside the top 30 in order to gain entry into the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta for the FedExCup finale next week.
At north of 7,500 yards and a par 71, Wilmington is a mix of beastly par 5s and some short par 4s with sharp dog legs. The course also features wider fairways than most PGA Tour courses along with large greens. These features will punish a player with poor iron play and reward golfers who can land the ball close to the tucked-away pins on the big greens.
Distance will also be a factor, giving a big advantage to golfers who can bomb the ball and follow up with good iron play.
BMW Championship Prop Bets: What To Look For
The top 30 players at week’s end will punch their ticket to East Lake GC for the Tour Championship. With a slew of benefits that come with reaching Atlanta, players will go for broke, knowing a poor start won’t determine their weekend plans.
The FedExCup playoffs isn’t the only thing at stake this week at the BMW Championship as golfers can also punch their ticket with exemptions to the Masters, U.S. Open and The Open Championship this weekend.
At Bovada, tournament favorite Rory McIlroy is -160 to finish inside the top 10. These odds imply a 61.54 percent probability of him being able to do so, based on our odds calculator. As for us, we’ll venture a bit further down the oddsboard as we outline our BMW Championship prop bets.
BMW Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Jon Rahm (+200 to finish inside the top 5):
At first glance, +200 isn’t the best odds to finish top five in a tournament, but a look at the oddsboard will show you there are nine golfers under +300 in this prop. With that in mind, this is a good bet considering how good Rahm is and how well he has played of late. Rahm has four top-12 finishes in his last seven events, including a T-5 last week and a win at the Mexico Open.
He is fourth on the tour in strokes gained: tee to green and perfectly suited to dominate this course. He’s a lock at -115 to finish in the top 10 as well.
Taylor Pendrith (+155 to finish inside the top 20):
Pendrith’s skill set matches quite well with this course as he should be able to put his superior driving skills to work and bomb the ball without worry on the wider fairways.
Pendrith is 10th in driving distance on tour and 10th in greens in regulation – good skills to have on a course that features two par 5s of 600-plus yards.
Though he finished 68th last week, the Canadian previously had five straight finishes of T-13 or better, including finishing second at the Rocket Mortgage.
Joaquin Niemann (+230 to finish inside the top 10):
We wrote about why we think Niemann is a good bet to win the whole darn thing in our BMW Championship odds piece, and he makes a lot of sense as a top-10 finish here as well at +230.
It’s hard to find a player better suited for a course like Wilmington, as Niemann should be able to show off his iron play on the wide fairways and set himself up for easier putts by attacking the pins.
Niemann is 16th in shots gained: off the tee and 11th in shots gained: tee to green. He will need his putter to cooperate, but this talented Chilean feels ready for a big breakthrough.
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