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Expert PGA Betting Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

While Henrik Stenson and Byeong Hun An were non-factors a week ago, my sleeper pick, Rory Sabbatini, notched a solid T-3 finish at 7 under. The Italian entered the tournament with extremely long +17500 odds but fell short behind champion Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia.

For a full breakdown of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Jason Day +1100

It was only a few years ago when Day was labeled the top golfer in the world, and his current form has him looking like that player again right now. The talent has never been in doubt, but injury issues played a part in his inconsistent performances since. Bettors shouldn’t worry about those now, though.

Day triumphed at Bay Hill two years ago and has a win (Farmers Insurance Open) and a T-2 finish (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) under his belt in two appearances in 2018. That’s good enough for me.

Solid value: Tyrrell Hatton +3000

Hatton finished third in two of his last three worldwide starts, including a T-3 showing two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico Championship. In his debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a year ago, he finished T-4.

Hatton is well established on the European Tour but has yet to win on U.S. soil, so betting him comes with a risk. Regardless, I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets his first PGA Tour win, and Bay Hill is a great fit for his game.

My sleeper pick: Jamie Lovemark +6600

Since Lovemark gained full exempt status in 2015-16, the tour’s Florida swing has treated the California native well. Lovemark has posted a T-6 and T-23 in the past two renewals of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and is fresh off a T-16 showing at Copperhead last week.

The field is a little top-heavy this weekend, so the time could be right for Lovemark to shock the golfing world and collect his first PGA Tour win in the Sunshine State.

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