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PGA Tour Expert Picks: 2019 PGA Championship

Xander Schauffele PGA Championship

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the second major of the year, the PGA Championship, and I’ve also included three sleeper picks for the tournament.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Brooks Koepka +1000

Koepka is a machine and proved to be up to the task once again in the 2018 PGA Championship when he edged out Tiger Woods for his third major win in a year and a half.

Koepka has either won or finished second in three of the last four major tournaments and has placed no worse than T-13 in eight of the past nine he’s played. At +1000, he’s an auto pre-tournament bet in my eyes.

My second favorite pick: Jason Day +2200

This is the first time Bethpage Black has hosted a PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open feel benefits Day. The 2015 PGA Championship winner collected his first and only major win at the tournament and is in excellent form right now.

Betting on Day always comes with a bit of a risk due to his various lingering health issues, but I’m all-in on him this week regardless.

My third favorite pick: Xander Schauffele +2500

At 25, Schauffele has already established himself as a perennial threat in major tournaments. Schauffele has gained the 15th most total strokes at majors over the past two years and made the cut in seven of his eight appearances in majors.

In that span, he has top-six finishes in four of them. Fresh off a T-2 at the Masters, I think he’s in prime form to win his first major title at Bethpage Black.

My favorite sleeper pick: Kevin Kisner +8000

Kisner is the hottest player in golf right now who is still somehow underrated, as he hasn’t missed a cut in 2019 and has fared well in big events (win at the WGC-Dell Match Play, T-7 at the 2017 PGA Championship, T-2 at the 2018 Open).

He’s not especially long off the tee, but he makes up for it in accuracy (23rd on the PGA Tour at 67.9 percent).

My second favorite sleeper pick: Keith Mitchell +12500

Mitchell has missed only one cut in six starts and has two top-10s in that stretch, including a T-8 at the Wells Fargo Championship. This is only Mitchell’s second major start, but out of all the major tournaments, the PGA is the one that’s seen the most winners seemingly come out of nowhere.

He’s a massive long shot to win the whole thing but he’s an excellent DFS play if you’re not comfortable backing him pre-tournament.

My third favorite sleeper pick: Keegan Bradley +12500

Bradley, the 2011 PGA champion, has roared back onto the scene since last fall and is still being undervalued at sportsbooks. The American has cooled off a bit over the last few months but is familiar with Bethpage. Bradley is a big-time player, evidenced by him making the cut in 22 of his last 26 majors.

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