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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Valspar Championship

A copperhead statue signifying the 'Snake Pit' portion of the course sits near the 16th tee during the final round of the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course on March 13, 2016 in Palm Harbor, Florida.

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Valspar Championship.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Patrick Reed +2000

Reed is an auto-bet for me whenever the Valspar comes around due to his past performances at the course. The 2018 Masters champion posted a solo second in 2015, a T-7 in 2016 and a T-2 in 2018 along with a scoring average of 69.6 in the last four renewals.

Reed is not in the same form he was a year ago before winning at Augusta, as he has only one top-10 finish this season and is coming off a deflating 78 Sunday at The Players. Still, he’s made 15 straight cuts worldwide and looks ready for another big performance with the Masters around the corner.

My second favorite pick: Lucas Glover +4000

Glover hasn’t played his best in front of big crowds, with missed cuts at The Players and the Phoenix Open, but the low-key Valspar could be an excellent bounce-back spot for him. The 39-year-old is 10-for-15 in cuts made at Copperhead along with five top-25s in his career at the track.

Glover leads the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance this season and has seven top-15s and a T-17 in 2018-19. He’s a safe DFS play and an appealing pre-tournament bet at his solid +4000 price.

My third favorite pick: Jason Kokrak +4000

Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut this season and has been in contention on occasion, evidenced by top-10 showings at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s not exactly a household name, but with the relatively weak field at the Valspar Championship, he could provide golf bettors some solid value.

Kokrak’s T-8 here last year is encouraging. At 33 he’s still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get one at some point over the next year.