Look, predicting a pre-tournament Sportsbook in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.
Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the second World Golf Championships event of the season, the WGC-Mexico Championship.
For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook
My Favorite Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
Matsuyama has cooled off on this side of the pond since his red-hot 2016-17 season, but although he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2017, I like him to get back into the Sportsbook’s circle this time around.
Matsuyama is a two-time Sportsbook of WGC events (Bridgestone Invitational and HSBC Champions) and has been hot this season, placing second at the Zozo Championship, third at the CJ Cup and fifth at last week’s Genesis Invitational.
The five-time tour Sportsbook already has almost $2.4 million in earnings this season. Matsuyama is average off the tee (65th in yards) but is excellent as he gets closer to the hole, ranking 12th in strokes gained approaching the green and fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. His best placement in Mexico was 19th in 2019, yet I like him to break through this time around.
My Second Favorite Pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
Fleetwood has been a stranger to North Americans of late, as the Englishman has chosen to play in Europe and the Middle East instead. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t played well, though.
Since the Tour Championship back in August – his last appearance on North American soil – Fleetwood won the Nedbank Golf Championship in South Africa and finished second at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai and the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in January.
Fleetwood simply can’t be discounted at this event. He’s compiled three top-20 finishes since the tournament moved to Mexico, including a runner-up showing in 2017. He’s a great bet at +2200 this week.
My Third Favorite Pick: Sergio Garcia +4000
Garcia is the definition of a hit-or-miss pre-tournament play, but I like the value he’s offering south of the border at +4000. The 40-year-old thrives in Mexico City, racking up three straight top-15 finishes here, including back-to-back top-10s.
Garcia has managed to break par in all 12 of his rounds at Club de Golf Chapultepec, including five rounds of 68 or better. He’s logged a top-10 in every other start since November, and after a T-37 at Riviera last week, he’s in line for another strong showing.