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We carried the momentum from the 2020-21 PGA Tour season into Napa a couple of weeks ago. Courtesy of John Augenstein at +900, we were able to come through in a big way at the Fortinet Championship with a nice top-20 wager. An ideal start to the fall swing, we will look to keep things rolling as the PGA Tour heads to Jackson, Mississippi, this week.
At just north of 7,400 yards, trouble lurks around nearly every corner, whether penalty areas or high grass. With driving at a premium and smaller-than-average greens, players should be ready for a complete test in the Garden State.
Despite holding the same outright odds as Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris at Sportsbook, it is Sam Burns who is most likely to finish inside the top 20. At -130, these odds imply an 56.52 percent probability of him being able to do so. Needing to put $130 down to profit $100 on such a wager, I have never found it profitable to target favorites in this market.
While we lived for the top-10 finishes last season, we saw at the Fortinet Championship that we can have success in the top-20 market as well. While John Augenstein was the one to come through for us at +900, both Nick Watney and Taylor Pendrith nearly did as well in what would have been a memorable week for this article. Let’s keep the momentum rolling at the Country Club of Jackson as we outline our best Sanderson Farms Championship prop bets.
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Sanderson Farms Championship Prop Bets: What To Look For
The Country Club of Jackson holds the hosting duties this week for the PGA Tour, marking the eighth straight year players have made their way to Jackson, Mississippi. This par 72 has long rewarded strong ball-strikers. Whether long off the tee or precise with their irons, players who find the center of the club face regularly also regularly find success here.
A longer course than most, CC of Jackson can stretch to nearly 7,500 yards. With Bermuda grass throughout, those into grass splits should know players such as Sam Burns and J.T. Poston have had strong showings in Mississippi before.
When ball-striking is at a premium, around-the-green play tends to take a back seat and even more so at CC of Jackson. When looking at the last three champions in Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ, all three players lost strokes to the field around the green.
However, they more than made up for it through their efforts on the putting surfaces. While Garcia was just able to post positive results, Munoz, Champ and even Ryan Armour in 2017 all posted north of 7.5 Strokes Gained: Putting.
So, what exactly does this tell us? Well, simply put, it is prudent to target those players who have been striking the ball well but also have the ability to run rampant with the flat stick. While this is highly unpredictable, we’ll put our best foot forward as we outline our four best bets for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Sanderson Farms Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Aaron Rai (+350 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
The casual golf fan may not know much about Aaron Rai, but trust me when I say the talent is there. A multiple-times Sportsbook on the European Tour, including the 2020 Scottish Open – a Rolex Series event – the Englishman has just recently secured his card on the PGA Tour. Courtesy of his efforts in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, we will forgive his 72nd-hole mishap in Boise and look for the strong play to continue at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Since securing his status, Rai has returned to his home country of England, teeing it up in the BMW PGA Championship where he was up to the challenge of Wentworth. Coming in a tie for 14th, he struck the ball beautifully, something he carried over to California the following week.
Making his season debut a couple of weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, Rai narrowly missed the cut, carding a 36-hole total of 2 under and falling one stroke outside the cut line. Despite the disappointment, there was plenty of good from his time in Napa.
After posting strong ball-striking figures in only two rounds of play, a decent week on the greens should propel Rai to a quality outing. The world No. 96 has been able to conquer Bermuda-laced courses throughout his career and very well could take to the Country Club of Jackson.
John Augenstein (+400 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
The darling of the season opener, John Augenstein was on no one’s radar but our own. Tooting our horn a little bit, I believe the former All-American can continue his strong play this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. While the number is not as desirable as it once was, it’s for good reason, as the 22-year-old produced the first real, quality finish of his young PGA Tour career at the Fortinet Championship.
Finishing in a tie for sixth, the Vanderbilt alum led the field, alongside Mito Pereira and Matthew NeSmith, in Strokes Gained: Approach. Having a sufficient week in the other areas of his bag, Augenstein was able to take apart the North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa. A relatively tight course, at least for the PGA Tour’s standards, he found trouble every now and then off the tee.
With that hopefully not an issue at the Country Club of Jackson, Augenstein will be able to effectively utilize his length off the tee. A strong ball-striker and a native to Bermuda courses, having grown up in Kentucky and played his college golf in Nashville, Augenstein makes for one of our best bets for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Nick Hardy (+400 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
From one young stud to another, while Hardy is a bit more seasoned than Augenstein, he has also been a bit more impressive to date on the PGA Tour. Turning professional in 2018, the 25-year-old just recently secured his status on the tour. Taking full advantage of the opportunities, Hardy began his season at the Fortinet Championship, where he finished in a tie for 36th.
In a strong start to his rookie campaign, the former Fighting Illini standout had a great week striking the ball. Posting +1.3 SG: Off-the-Tee and +3.5 SG: Approach, Hardy’s undoing was his play on and around the green. Typically a short-game savant, if the ball-striking keeps up, Hardy should fare well.
While he may be more comfortable once the tour reaches the Midwest swing, I am willing to take a chance on him this week. These young players are hungry, proven and ready for the PGA Tour examination, and Hardy is as well-read as they come. While it’s a tall ask for him to come all the way through, a top-20 wager suffices as one of our Sanderson Farms Championship prop bets.
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Wyndham Clark (+400 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
From a statistical standpoint, Clark is never a player one should target. Over-reliant on his putting and an up-and-down ball-striker, the former Oregon Duck is quite an anomaly when it comes to consistency. This sentiment is intensified when looking at how last season transpired. Losing his putting stroke, Clark was completely lost, missing six consecutive cuts to end his 2020-21 campaign.
Yet before this all happened, he actually found something tee-to-green that may have carried over to this season. He had a strong beginning to last season and actually a decent enough spring as well, and it appears as if he is on the cusp of another strong start to a year.
Kicking things off a few weeks ago in Napa, Clark made his way inside the top 30, his first such finish in four months. Posting +4.9 SG: Tee-to-Green, the long-hitting 27-year-old struggled on the greens. But I am willing to gamble on Clark, historically a very, very competent putter, finding his touch on the greens at the Country Club of Jackson.
Yes, he had the worst putting performance of his career here last season when he posted -8.5 SG: Putting, but he also had his second-best performance in 2017 when he posted +7.7 SG: Putting and finished in a tie for 17th. Clark will need a similar outcome to cash our final best bet for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
