2020 Workday Charity Open: Odds to Win and Expert Picks

Fresh off a second straight 6-under 66 round, Justin Thomas holds a two-stroke lead over Viktor Hovland heading into the final round of the Workday Charity Open.

Thomas started Saturday trailing by three shots but took the lead due to a litany of errors from Collin Morikawa. Here's a look at the odds heading in to Sunday's final round:

Odds as of July 12 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

Thomas Is On Cruise Control

Thomas will once again be playing with the 23-year-old Morikawa on Sunday. Morikawa, who trailed by three ahead of the final round, struggled to keep it together on moving day but managed to end the day in third at 13-under.

Due to inclement weather, the Workday Charity Open will get an early start time on Sunday, as Hovland is set to join Thomas and Morikawa in the final pairing. Prior to this week, Thomas' record at Muirfield Village was a mixed bag of top-10 showings (two) and missed cuts (three), but the 27-year-old is clearly comfortable in his surroundings.

Thomas has yet to make a bogey at the Workday Charity Open, a first through 54 holes in his career. Only two other players have done the same feat on the tour this year.

Thunderstorms are expected in the forecast for most of the day today. Tee times have been moved up as a result, starting at 7 a.m. ET with Thomas, Hovland and Morikawa slated for a 9:01 start time.

The Workday Charity Open will be the first of consecutive events at Muirfield Village Golf Club, replacing the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour schedule due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Spectators will be allowed in a limited capacity at next week’s Memorial, but they will not be able to attend the Workday Charity Open. Bryson DeChambeau, who’s coming off a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, is taking his first week off since the tour’s Return to Golf – a welcome sign for every other player in the field.

Justin Thomas is the +1000 favorite to win the 2020 Workday Charity Open. Here’s a look at the golfers with the top odds to win the tournament at [Sportsbook not available for your region]:

Odds as of July 8 at [Sportsbook not available for your region]

To learn more about wagering on the links, check out our How to Bet on Golf page.

Course and Tournament Information

Plenty of High-End Talent to Descend on Muirfield

While many of the top players on the tour didn’t participate in the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Workday Charity Open will feature seven of the top 15 golfers in the world rankings. Three of the top five in the world will tee it up at the Workday, including No. 2 Jon Rahm, No. 4 Thomas and No. 5 Brooks Koepka.

Koepka is returning to action after withdrawing from the Travelers Championship two weeks ago as a precautionary measure in light of his caddie Rickie Elliott testing positive for COVID-19. Including Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth, nine of the top 10 from last year’s Memorial, including 2014 Sportsbook Hideki Matsuyama, are in the field.

Cantlay Looking for More Success in Ohio

The Workday Charity Open is a one-off event, as the John Deere Classic will return to its normal time and setting at Muirfield in 2021. As a result, golf handicappers would be wise to look at last year’s Memorial Tournament to gauge which golfers traditionally fare well at the venue.

Cantlay will be back to defend his title after triumphing at the 2019 Memorial. The 28-year-old shot a final-round 8 under 64 – the lowest ever by a Memorial Tournament champ – to claim the hardware at 19 under par.

Cantlay finished two strokes ahead of Adam Scott for the second victory of his career. The American has only played one event in the tour’s Return to Golf – a T-11 showing at the Travelers Championship.

Last Five Sportsbooks at Muirfield Village Golf Club (Memorial Tournament)

Workday Charity Open Picks and Strategy

When it comes to performing well at Muirfield Village, it’s important for bettors to zero in on some key statistics. The greens at this venue are tiny and quick, as the putting surfaces are consistently some of the fastest on the PGA Tour. That’s why I always try to pick out players who are excellent with the flat stick when handicapping events here.

Considering the Workday is a one-off tournament, the course specs are pretty similar to the Memorial Tournament. A look into the scorecard for the Workday shows an extra 64 yards of length, moving it from 7,392 yards at the Memorial to 7,456 yards.

Only three holes have been altered: the par-3 No. 8 which is now 202 yards (17 yards longer), the par-5 No. 11 which is now 583 yards (16 yards longer) and the par-5 No. 15 which is now 560 yards (31 yards longer).

Safely said, I’m capping this tournament the same way I would bet the Memorial by focusing on how Muirfield historically plays. The Memorial has annually sat inside the top five in courses on the PGA Tour with the lowest scrambling percentage (53 percent), so make sure to factor that into your bets as well.

With that said, here are my top picks for the 2020 Workday Charity Open:

Collin Morikawa +2800

Morikawa has already proven he has the ability to contend with the best players on the PGA Tour, and I like his chances at “Jack’s Place” at his +2800 number.

He finished second at the Charles Schwab Classic in June and also recorded top-10s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Sentry Tournament of Champions this season.

Bettors who backed him to win the Charles Schwab might still be feeling a bit of a sting after Morikawa missed an extremely short putt to give Daniel Berger the win in a playoff, but don’t let that misstep fool you. He’s the real deal, and I think he’ll break through with a win sooner rather than later.

Byeong Hun An +6600

An has played Muirfield four times in his career and has posted solid numbers here, with the highlight coming in the form of a runner-up showing in a playoff in 2018 to go along with T-11, T-17 and T-25 finishes at the track.

An is the definition of an all-or-nothing golfer, as he seems to either be in contention or missing the cut completely week in and week out. The 28-year-old has five top-10 finishes this season, but he's placed outside of the top 10 in eleven events.

Even though An has struggled since the Return to Golf (T-60 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, missed cut at the RBC Heritage, T-46 at the Travelers Championship), he’s worth a shot at his long odds of +6600 based on his past success at this course. 

Here’s a helpful outline of some of the different betting options for the Workday Charity Open to help you decide which wager(s) would be best for you.

Pre-Tournament Bets

This is the most common and simplest type of golf wager. Since the Workday Charity Open starts on Thursday, getting your bets in before action tees off is the best way to find value.

Given the size of the fields in golf, it can be tricky to pick a Sportsbook, so don’t get frustrated if the player you choose fails to make the cut. All you have to do is pick one or more golfers, and you’re locked in for the duration of the event.

Considering Thomas is the +1000 favorite, a $100 bet on him will win you a profit of $1,000 plus your initial $100 back if he emerges triumphant. If you wanted to make a long-shot bet – say Jim Furyk at +12500 – you’d garner a $12,600 payout. 

Obviously Furyk’s chances of winning outright are slim, but bettors would be wise to mix in one or two long shots. Golfers come out of nowhere to win all the time, and it could easily happen this week at Muirfield Village, a place where relative unknowns have prevailed before.

Three-Ball Bets

The Workday Charity Open features groups of three, so sportsbooks will give bettors the option of picking whichever golfer they think will have the best score of the group in each round.

Three-ball bets will be decided at the end of that round, so bettors won’t have to wait until the tournament is over to collect their potential winnings. In order to win a three-ball bet, all you have to do is correctly pick which player will have the lowest score after the round is complete.

If at least two of the members of the group are tied for the lowest score after 18 holes, the three-ball bet is lost. For that reason, there is risk in this type of wager, but it’s a fun way to get some action on a single round.

Head-to-Head Bets

Head-to-head matchup bets are especially exciting because they pit two players against each other based on the individual rounds as well as the overall tournament matchups.

For example, Billy Horschel and Harold Varner III are both -115 at [Sportsbook not available for your region] in a head-to-head matchup bet. That means the sportsbook is giving each man an equal shot of winning. If you bet on Horschel, in order to win money all you’ll need is for Horschel to have a better score than Varner.

These helpful pages will assist you in handicapping your golf wagers: