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2019 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends & Facts

The $1.5-million Preakness Stakes (G1) is coming up on Saturday and for the first time since 1996, it will be missing the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner.

Country House has developed a cough and will miss the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Maximum Security, who crossed the wire first but was disqualified for interference, will also not head to Baltimore.

Toss in Code of Honor and Tacitus, who were placed second and third after the disqualification, and we are missing the first four that crossed the wire in the Run for the Roses.

We still are going to have a big field, and there still will be plenty of money to be made. So let’s look for a few betting angles that might help us narrow down the winner of the second jewel of the Triple Crown:

Preakness Stakes Betting Trends & Facts
  • The betting favorite in the Preakness has won 14 of the last 33 editions and has run second nine times. The second choice in the betting has won nine times with four running second.
  • In the last 11 years, we have seen five post-time favorites win, including last year with Justify, who returned $2.80.
  • The Kentucky Derby winner has come back and won the Preakness 11 times in the last 22 editions, including last year with Justify and in 2015 with American Pharoah, who both went on to sweep the Triple Crown.
  • Over the past 33 years, the Preakness favorite has landed in the money 25 times and in the top four 29 times.
  • Since 2001, 14 of the 18 Preakness winners have paid $8.80 or less. Five of the winners went off at EVEN money or less. The biggest price in that time frame was Oxbow, who returned $32.80 in 2013.
  • We have seen four of the top 11 payoffs in Preakness history in the last 13 years — Oxbow ($32.80 in 2013), Cloud Computing ($28.80 in 2017), Bernardini ($27.80 in 2006) and Shackleford ($27.20 in 2011).
  • While the Kentucky Derby has had three winners pay $100+ in the last 14 years, the top payoff in Preakness history is Master Derby, who returned $48.80 in 1975.
  • The betting favorite has won 73 of the 143 editions of the Preakness.
  • While favorites have run well, the runner-up in the Preakness can sometimes be a long shot — Bravazo last year at +1500, Cherry Wine in 2016 at +1700, Tale of Verve in 2015 at +2800, First Dude at +2300 in 2010, Macho Again at +3900 in 2008, Scrappy T at +1300 in 2005, Midway Road at +2300 in 2003 and Magic Weisner at +4500 in 2002.
  • In 2002, War Emblem and Magic Weisner combined for a record $327 exacta. The 2013 exacta with Oxbow and Itsmyluckyday returned $301. Last year Justify topped a $2 exacta with Bravazo that paid $27.40.
  • With Justify’s win last year, trainer Bob Baffert matched the all-time high in Preakness wins for a trainer at seven along with R. Wyndham Walden, who won his last Preakness in 1888.
  • Since 1997, 11 of 22 Derby winners came back to win the Preakness. Only American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) went on to complete the Triple Crown.
  • Since 1983, only four Preakness winners did not compete in the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Cloud Computing in 2017, who paid $28.80 to win.
  • Exaggerator in 2016 became the first Kentucky Derby runner-up to win the Preakness since Prairie Bayou in 2003.
  • Over the past 42 years, the best post positions in the Preakness have been the eight post with eight winners, the seven post with six winners and the three post with six winners. Since 1986, we have seen only four winners that have broken from the 10 post and outward.
  • The largest margin of victory in the Preakness belongs to Smarty Jones in 2004, winning by 11½ lengths. American Pharoah won by seven lengths in 2015, tied for sixth in largest margin of victory, and fellow Triple Crown winner Justify won last year’s race by 1½ lengths.
  • Over the last 20 years, an average of five Derby starters have returned in the Preakness. In two of the past five years, just three returned. The most to return over the past two decades was 10 in 1999 and 2005. Those Derbies were won by long shots Charismatic ($64.60) and Giacomo ($102.60). Last year Justify faced three fellow Derby alums.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

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