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Diamondbacks, Phillies Contest Rubber Match In Series Finale

The Arizona Diamondbacks had their five-game winning streak ended last night and are +120 underdogs in tonight’s game with the Philadelphia Phillies coming back at -140 to win the series. Merrill Kelly and Zach Eflin toe the slab with the total opening at 9 runs.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game Center

Standout Stats

  • Arizona is 7-8 SU and 10-5 ATS through its last 15 games and is 5-1 SU and ATS over its last six. The Diamondbacks are 21-17 on the road this year.
  • Philadelphia is 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS over its last 12 contests and is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven. The Phillies are 23-13 at Citizens Bank Park this season.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Phillies’ last 12 with an average combined score of 9.92. Similarly, the total has gone UNDER in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last 15 with an average combined score of 9.93. The first two games of this series went OVER.
  • The Diamondbacks are 6-7 over Merrill Kelly’s 13 trips to the mound and he is 6-6 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has thrown six quality starts as well, including two in a row.
  • He is averaging 7.02 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and 1.33 HR/9 rates in his rookie season.
  • Opponents are hitting .262 against Kelly and 14.2 percent of the contact is soft-hit while 39.7 percent is hard-hit. Philadelphia ranks 10th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • Kelly has a 6.00 ERA and a .279 opponent batting average over his seven road starts. He has an ugly 5.25 BB/9 rate while also having higher HR/9 and lower K/9 rates in away outings. He has lower soft-hit and hard-hit percentages as well.
  • The Phillies are 6-6 behind Zach Eflin in 2019 and he is 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He has tossed seven quality starts this year.
  • He is averaging 7.13 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and 1.38 HR/9 rates this season, which are right around his career average. Although he has a solid 2.88 ERA, his FIP is a little more elevated at 4.42.
  • Opponents are hitting .243 against Eflin, the lowest average against him in his career, and he has a career-low 1.19 WHIP. Of the contact against, 36.3 percent is hard-hit and 17 percent is soft-hit. Arizona ranks 18th in hard-hit percentage vs RHP over the last 30 days.
  • Eflin has a 2.10 ERA and a .220 batting average through his five home starts. He is averaging lower K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 rates compared to the road. Only 29.1 percent of the contact is hard-hit and 20.4 percent is soft-hit.
  • The Diamondbacks bullpen has tossed the sixth-most innings over the last two weeks but ranks eighth in ERA at 3.54 over that span. Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen ranks 19th in innings pitched over the last 14 days but sits 24th in ERA at 5.85.
  • Philadelphia is 32-18 against right-handed starters this year, ranking 19th in batting average and 14th in runs scored. Over the last 30 days, the Phillies sit 26th in batting average and 17th in runs scored vs RHP.
  • Arizona is 22-21 against right-handed starters in 2019, sitting 20th in batting average and 18th in runs scored. Additionally, the Diamondbacks rank 21st in batting average and 13th in runs scored vs RHP over the last 30 days.

My Best Bet for Arizona vs Philadelphia


Neither team has had much success hitting against right-handed pitchers this season or over the last 30 days, ranking outside of the top 10 in batting average and runs scored. Meanwhile, Eflin has been dynamite at Citizens Bank Park in 2019 with a sparkling 2.10 ERA and a .220 opponent batting average. The numbers haven’t been as pretty for Kelly on the road, but he is coming off back-to-back starts – including one on the road – in which he tossed seven or more innings and allowed one run.