Canada Day is supposed to be a fun time for Canadians. But, the July 1st holiday hasn't been all that bright for the nation's baseball team in recent years.
Are the Blue Jays worth betting on when they rock the red jerseys on Canada Day this year?
Blue Jays Canada Day Trends
| Wins | Losses | Betting Profit | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | +0.39 units | 5 | 4 |
The last decade hasn't produced too many noticeable MLB betting trends for the Blue Jays on Canada Day. They're 5-4 on the July 1 moneyline and the OVER is 5-4, both for slightly positive profits.
However, the recent 5-4 record (.555 win rate) is a vast improvement over Toronto's all-time Canada Day record. The Jays have an awful .366 win rate across all Canada Day games, and an even worse .182 win rate when the July 1 game is on the road. However, MLB schedule makers have been kind to Toronto in recent years, as the Blue Jays haven't played a road Canada Day game since 2010.
Rogers Centre is packed with Blue Jays fans singing the national anthem on Canada's big day! #Canada150 pic.twitter.com/S57sBPuQz6
— CTV Toronto (@CTVToronto) July 1, 2017
Boom Or Bust For Blue Birds On Canada Day
There have been some wacky scores over the last few years for the Jays on Canada Day. Not a single score has been within five runs:
- 2022: Jays 9 - Rays 2
- 2021: Mariners 7- Jays 2
- 2019: Jays 11 - Royals 4
- 2018: Tigers 9 - Jays 1
- 2017: Red Sox 7 - Jays 1
However, this trend should be good for OVER bettors, as the Jays average 5.33 runs per game (and allow 4.11). That 5.33 mark is significantly higher than their normal run rate, which sits at 4.53 so far this year. Over the last five years, the Blue Jays haven't played a Canada Day game with fewer than eight total runs scored.
And, if you want to go back a bit further, there have been some absurdly high-scoring July 1 affairs. In 2004 and 2005, the Jays won games 14-0 and 15-2 on Canada Day.
That OVER trend should stick this year, as the Jays play the Boston Red Sox on July 1, 2023. The Sox are the seventh-best OVER team in MLB this season, hitting above the run total in 54.4% of games this year.
Cavan Biggio Rakes On Canada Day
Okay, so you're already taking the OVER for the Jays game this year. But, you want to sprinkle some MLB props action too, eh? Why not consider a wager on Cavan Biggio?
The Toronto infielder/outfielder is hitting just .200 this season and hasn't posted an OPS over the league average since 2020. But, he rakes on Canada Day. Biggio is the best current Jay on July 1, with a .454 career batting average (5-for-11), two doubles, two walks, and four RBI in three Canada Day contests.
The lefty is also heating up at the plate this season, just in time. In his last 12 contests, Biggio has three homers and an .894 OPS. He's hitting .265 over that time with eight RBI in just 34 at-bats.
Cavan Biggio: First Jays batter ever to have 2 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs scored in a game on Canada Day.
— Doug Kern (@dakern74) July 1, 2022
