The Cincinnati Reds are gunning for their fourth victory in a row when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers tonight but that could be easier said than done with Homer Bailey getting the start. The right-hander is snakebitten in 2018 as he owns a 6.33 ERA in 16 starts and the Reds are an ugly 1-15 SU in those games. That’s OK with the Brew Crew, who are clinging to their playoff lives and are 3-6 SU in their last nine games. Milwaukee opened as the -210 favorite to continue putting the nail in the coffin of Bailey’s career.
- The Reds are 1-15 SU in 16 games in 2018 with Homer Bailey as the starter.
- The Reds are averaging 3.67 runs per game since the all-star break.
- The OVER has hit in five of the last seven games in this matchup.
View the Reds vs Brewers matchup page
Reds are Fade Material with Bailey on the Mound
It may not be all Homer Bailey’s fault but the Cincinnati Reds are awful when he is starting. The Reds are 1-15 SU and 4-12 ATS in Bailey’s 16 outings this season and if bettors wagered $100 on each one of his starts, they’d be down $1341 and up to $947.67 if you faded him. I’m not saying this will continue but to endorse any kind of bet on the Reds tonight would be irresponsible.
On the Brewers side, they’ll turn to Chase Anderson, who has settled for three no-decisions in his last three outings while the Brewers dropped each of those games. Anderson’s ERA at home is an eyesore at 5.03 over 12 starts but Milwaukee has still been profitable at 7-5 SU in those games. The Brewers are 2-0 SU in two games facing the Reds with Anderson on the mound. He pitched a gem at the end of June when he held them to two hits and one run in an 8-2 victory.
Reds Offense has been Stagnant
2018 has been a season to forget for the Reds as they’re 55-69 SU after 124 games and since the all-star break, they’re 11-17 SU. The offense has been an issue for the Cincy batting order for most of the season as they’re averaging only 3.67 runs per game since the break, which ranks 28th in MLB. It gets worse too as the Reds are missing their best hitter in Joey Votto, who is a wrecking ball vs Brewers pitching with a .345 career batting average at Miller Park.
Is Another OVER in Play in this Matchup?
The total opened at 9 and trends are pointing to another OVER in this collision course between two divisional opponents. The OVER has hit in five of the last seven games in this matchup with an average combined score of 10.8 runs per game. When you factor in that the OVER has hit in four of the Brewers’ last five games at home with an average combined score of 11.8 runs per game and Bailey’s track record, this tilt feels like a scorefest waiting to happen.
