There may be still 11 to 12 games left in the regular season for the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers but this final head-to-head series of the season could dictate who takes the NL West crown. The Rockies got thumped 8-2 in the first game of the series and are now a half-game back of the divisional lead and a wild-card spot. They’ll have Kyle Freeland on the mound and they’ve gone 13-1 SU in their last 14 games when he gets the call. But the Dodgers have some guy named Kershaw starting, which is why Los Angeles opened as a -190 favorite.
- The Dodgers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
- The Rockies are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games with Kyle Freeland as the starter.
- The Dodgers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
Rockies vs Dodgers Game Center
Rockies Are Tough To Beat with Freeland Starting
The Rockies know who their ace is and that’s Kyle Freeland. The lefty sports a 2.96 ERA this season and has won all three of his starts in September, including one at home vs this Dodgers lineup. Freeland has been on a tear since the start of July with a 2.91 ERA in his last 14 starts and the Rockies have gone 13-1 SU in those outings.
However, his road splits do give me pause as his ERA jumps to 3.51 in away games (16 starts) and he has allowed three or more earned runs in nine of them. When he took the mound at Dodger Stadium back in May, he allowed six hits and three earned runs in a 3-0 loss. I’m not saying to take those stats to the bank but when you consider Dodgers hitters are batting .307 against him over 127 career at-bats, the Rockies are hardly a shoo-in.
The main reason the Rockies can’t be considered an upset special is they’re facing the best lefty in the game in Clayton Kershaw. The southpaw is coming off back-to-back road wins in St. Louis and Colorado and owns a 2.39 ERA in 15 starts since coming back from injury near the end of June. Kershaw held the Rockies batting order to two runs and six hits in that victory and in his career vs Colorado, he owns a 22-7 record in 39 starts with a 3.21 ERA.
Dodgers Getting Hot at the Right Time
The Dodgers looked dead in the water a few weeks ago when they were on the outside looking in for the divisional crown and chasing the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fast-forward to today and they are back in the lead and have been red-hot at home, winning eight of their last 11 games.
The Los Angeles batting order has been powered lately by Yasiel Puig, who smoked five home runs over two games vs St. Louis, while Joc Pederson smashed two dingers last night. As a result, the Dodgers have now scored the most runs in September (89), the most homers (26) and are third in RBIs with 82. I like the Dodgers in this one but runline bettors should note that Los Angeles is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games at home so be cautious before anticipating a beatdown of the Rockies tonight.
Should You Take the UNDER?
The total opened at 7 in this matchup and when you factor in the playoff stakes along with the quality of pitching, the UNDER may be the smart play. Both of these pitchers are lights-out lately and are arguably the two best lefties in the game.
When the line was set at 7 in three Clayton Kershaw starts earlier this season, the UNDER hit in two of them with an average combined score of 6. Factoring in that the UNDER has hit in seven of the Rockies’ last nine games on the road with an average combined score of 5.8 runs per game, I anticipate a low-scoring game, which is why this will be my pick tonight.
