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Braves Poised To Win World Series At Home In Game 5

The Braves are up 3-1 over the Astros in the World Series

The Atlanta Braves took a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series on Saturday thanks to a tightly contested 3-2 victory. They’ll have an opportunity to win their first MLB title since 1995 on Sunday as Game 5 stays at Truist Park.


Houston Astros Vs Atlanta Braves
  • Date/Time: October 31, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Truist Park
  • TV Coverage: FOX, FOX-INT
  • Opening Odds: Astros -111 | O/U 8.5 (Line History)
  • Astros vs Braves Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The visiting Houston Astros are the favorites in a must-win Game 4, coming in at -115 on the moneyline. The Braves are the underdog for the first time since Game 1, sitting at -105 as of late Saturday night. The total is set at 8.5 runs with the UNDER going 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

With no starting pitcher announced and a decimated rotation, it’s anyone’s guess who will throw the first pitch for the Braves in Game 5. Max Fried started in Game 2 and went five innings but has been on record saying that he isn’t against starting again in Game 5 on short rest. That decision, though, will ultimately come down to manager Brian Snitker. In all likelihood, it will be another bullpen game for Atlanta.

Framber Valdez will make his second start of the series for the Astros. The left-hander threw 4.1 innings in Game 1, giving up seven hits and four earned runs. Through four postseason starts, Valdez holds a 1-1 record with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. In the regular season he went 11-6 over 22 starts with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

Houston News & Notes

Game 4 was an up-and-down ride for the Astros and, unfortunately, the evening concluded on a downswing. Starter Zack Greinke was the biggest bright spot on the night as the 38-year-old pitched four scoreless innings while even recording a hit of his own, but that’s arguably where the positives ended.

Houston had a golden opportunity to do damage in the first inning with the bases loaded and just one out. Ultimately all they mustered in the frame was one run – an RBI groundout from Carlos Correa – which proved to be costly. Jose Altuve added a solo home run in the fourth as the Astros’ offence came up limp yet again in this series.

The Astros’ bullpen was their real undoing, though, as they gave up three runs across the sixth and seventh innings to turn a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 deficit.

Atlanta News & Notes

The Braves were up against the wall, in a way, without a true starter for Game 4. They elected to go with 27-year-old rookie Dylan Lee, who got pulled after facing four batters and recording just one out. Kyle Wright came in with the bases loaded and was able to limit the Astros to just one run in the frame. Wright went on to pitch 4.2 innings, scattering five hits and one earned run. Atlanta used four more relievers over the final four innings, allowing just two hits and no runs combined.

Just like in Game 3, the offence did just enough to get the job done. Down 2-0 in the sixth, Austin Riley hit an RBI single to cut the deficit in half. The seventh inning is where the magic happened as Dansby Swanson and pinch hitter Jorge Soler hit back-to-back solo shots to give Atlanta a 3-2 lead that they would not relinquish.

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How Houston Will Win

The Astros’ bats have feasted on teams all year long but have come up short at the worst time imaginable. Whether it’s the pressure, unfamiliarity with the pitchers they’re facing, or something else, it’s now or never to turn things around. Houston needs to come out hard and build a big lead early, or their season will likely be over.

How Atlanta Will Win

Despite their battered rotation, pitching has been the key to success for the Braves in the series. Atlanta has limited Houston, the top offence in the majors, to just 12 runs over four contests – a measly three runs per game. It was something of a miracle that the Braves managed to limit the Astros to two runs in Game 4 with the arms they had at their disposal, but there’s nothing stopping them from doing it again in Game 5.

Computer Pick: Braves -105

For all the 2021 World Series predictions, see our MLB Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Atlanta is 9-0 in its last nine home games.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games.
  • Houston is 3-8 in its last 11 road games.