No five-day occurrence in MLB betting is more satisfying than when Homer Bailey takes the mound. The righty toes the rubber tonight vs the New York Yankees and although he’s coming off arguably his best pitching performance in almost two years, his teams are 2-21 SU in his last 23 starts. The Yankees are coming off a nice two-game sweep of the Red Sox to push their home record to 5-6 SU in 11 games and will have Domingo German on the hill to stare down the Royals batting order.
The Yankees opened up as -185 favorites with a total of 9.
STANDOUT STATS
- If you have been following Odds Shark and the writers on Twitter, you’re fully aware of Homer Bailey Day. The 12-year starter owns a 5.29 ERA this season and his teams are 2-21 SU in his last 23 outings. However, in his most recent outing vs the Indians, he twirled a gem and only allowed two hits in seven innings of work. He has only faced the Yankees twice in his career, with both of those games going in the Bronx, and gave up 17 hits in 18.1 innings with a 5.84 ERA.
- Domingo German will get the call for the Yanks in this one and in three appearances (two starts) this season, he has been excellent. In 13 innings, he’s allowed three hits and two earned runs and has yet to give up a home run. However, last year was not a great season for the 26-year-old as he had seven starts among 10 home appearances and gave up 26 earned runs in 45 innings (5.20 ERA). This will be his first time facing the Royals in his career.
- The Royals lost 104 games last season and are off to a 6-12 start this year. Most of their offensive metrics are middle of the pack but it’s their pitching staff that’s doing them in. The Royals as a team own a 5.34 ERA (ranked 25th), while allowing 73 walks (ranked 24th) and permitting opposing batters to hit .267 (ranked 27th). They also have one of the worst bullpens in the majors with their relievers owning a 6.37 ERA (ranked 28th) and lead MLB in blown saves (7).
- Although the Yankees can explode on offense at any time, the bats haven’t been as hot as they were last year. New York has only scored 86 runs through 17 games (5.05 runs per game) compared to last year when it averaged about 5.5 runs per game. The Yanks can still mash the ball as they have socked 30 homers (ranked fifth) but the injuries to the batting order have made it hard to bank on a huge offensive output through the early stages of the season. The good news for the Bronx Bombers is their bullpen has been solid (3.43 ERA and .222 opponent batting average).
- Although there are a lot of UNDER trends coming into this game, the OVER may be the profitable angle in this tilt. The Royals give up so many runs that they’ve become one of the better OVER teams in MLB with an 11-6-1 O-U record in 18 games.
My Best Bet for Royals vs Yankees
OVER 9
I heavily considered taking the Yankees -1.5 due to the Homer Bailey effect but I’d rather bank on a lot of runs instead. Bailey and the entire Royals pitching staff have been atrocious this season and I think they’ll give up at least seven runs in the Bronx. The Royals batters can still put up runs despite the awful start and I’m skeptical that Yankees starter Domingo German can keep up his early pace when he had an ERA over 5 in his outings last season.
