After officially being eliminated from playoff contention, the Arizona Diamondbacks aim to play spoiler when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. Their intentions are admirable but they’re facing Clayton Kershaw and a Dodgers squad that has won nine of its last 11 games. The D-backs are in a tailspin, dropping seven of their last eight games, and opened as +150 underdogs to pull off the upset.
- The Dodgers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games with Clayton Kershaw as the starter.
- The Diamondbacks are 5-16 SU in 21 games in September.
- The UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 5 games in this matchup.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Game Center
Kershaw Peaking at Right Time
I won’t spend too much time gushing about Clayton Kershaw as even the most casual bettor knows of his exploits. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Dodgers are riding a six-game win streak when he gets the start (8-2 in his last 10) with his ERA hovering around 2.30 in 11 road starts this season. He has faced the Diamondbacks four times this season (2-2 SU), including on September 1 when he held them to four hits and two runs in a 3-2 victory. In his career, he owns a 15-9 record in 30 starts with a 2.53 ERA vs the D-backs. But when he goes to Chase Field, that number jumps to 3.65 over 14 starts so he could be prone for a letdown.
As for Arizona, they’ll lean on Robbie “Sugar” Ray, who seems to be rounding into form after having a horrible first half of 2018. Ray has been excellent in four starts in September with a 1.52 ERA over 23.2 innings and 30 strikeouts. The last time he faced the Dodgers at the end of August, he limited them four hits and one run in a 3-1 victory.
It’s not Always Sunny in Arizona
At the start of the month, the Diamondbacks were leading the NL West Division and seemed like they had a great chance to upset the Dodgers and surging Rockies to take the divisional crown. Fast-forward to today and the D-backs are eight games back of the Dodgers and were eliminated from the postseason after going 5-16 SU in 21 games this month. The ’Zona offense is stagnant, to say the least, ranking 26th in runs and OPS over last two weeks, while the bullpen ERA is 30th this month and now the Snakes face a pitcher who is world-class. I think it’s safe to say that even if Robbie Ray has a great outing, he won’t get the run support needed to outhit a team that just broke a franchise record for homers in a season.
Totals Bettors May Want To Consider the UNDER
The total opened at 7 and while that total is obviously a nerve-racker for UNDER bettors, these may be two starters that you can bank on. The UNDER has hit in three of the four games that Kershaw has faced the Diamondbacks this season with an average combined score of 6.8 runs per game. I’m not saying that that’s a “money in the bank” trend but the Diamondbacks offense has been terrible lately and Arizona hitters own a .205 career batting average against Kershaw. The total has gone UNDER in the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 4.75 runs per game.
My Pick is…
To take the Dodgers -1.5. The Dodgers still have a lot more to play for with them still trying to hold off the Rockies in the division and catch the Braves for home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Too many red flags to feel comfortable taking a total.
