The New York Mets were baseball's best OVER teams last year. After an offseason with nearly $500-million in free agent signings, preseason projections had them cashing even more runs in 2023.
But instead, the 2023 Mets have been one of baseball's most profitable UNDER franchises. Let's dig into the surprising MLB betting trend and see if it'll continue:
| Team | Record | % | Unit Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | 60-42 | 58.8% | +13.0 |
| Mets | 56-41-4 | 57.7% | +10.7 |
| Brewers | 57-42-4 | 57.6% | +10.7 |
| Guardians | 56-43-3 | 56.6% | +8.6 |
| Phillies | 53-42-7 | 55.8% | +6.8 |
Why Are The Mets UNDER Machines?
I mean, it's pretty simple right? The Mets offense has woefully underperformed expectations.
As a team, the Mets rank 19th in runs scored and 20th in team OPS. Tommy Pham has been New York’s most productive offensive player this year — need I say more?
Here’s a list of Mets players who have a noticeably lower OPS in 2023 than 2022: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha. That’s basically the entire offense.
With today's loss to the Reds, the Mets have been shut out 7 times this season.
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 11, 2023
They were shut out 8 times all of last season. pic.twitter.com/87S35xODBf
The Offense Is Only Getting Colder, Too
Don't hold out for these Mets trends to change, either, because New York's offense is only getting worse.
In July, New York has the seventh-fewest runs in baseball. As a team, they're hitting .226 with a .727 OPS this month. That's worse than the White Sox, Tigers, and Judgeless Yankees.
The Mets also have the fourth-best team ERA in that time, too (3.59) meaning they're becoming even more of an UNDER beast. If the Mets trade from their offense at the trade deadline (Mark Canha, Tommy Pham) this UNDER lean could get even more pronounced.
Citi Field Is An UNDER Haven
If you really want to hammer some Mets UNDERs, check out their success at home. The Under has hit at New York's Citi Field more than two-thirds of games this season, easily baseball's most profitable home UNDER park:
Best home UNDER teams, 2023
- Mets (67.4%)
- Guardians (63.5%)
- Blue Jays (60.5%)
This isn't that surprising, as New York's Citi Field is the second-most pitching friendly park in baseball over the last three years. Teams score 5% less than average in Queens. Maybe Steven Cohen can buy more runs?
