After a 13-inning Game 4, the NLCS is knotted at 2-2 as the Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the Milwaukee Brewers and now look to take the series lead at Dodger Stadium. No team has won back-to-back games yet in the series and the Dodgers opened today’s game as a -163 favorite with the Brewers coming back at +135. Clayton Kershaw and Wade Miley take the mound with the total Sportsbook at 7 runs.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Brewers’ last eight games (avg. combined score: 5.5).
- The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Dodgers’ last 17 games at home vs teams with winning records.
- The Dodgers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games in the playoffs at home.
Brewers vs Dodgers Game Center
Miley has been brilliant in the playoffs
Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) was strong down the stretch of the regular season and has carried his good play into the postseason. The Brewers are 8-1 SU over Miley’s last nine trips to the mound – including 1-1 in his two playoff outings – and he holds an impressive 2.36 ERA over that span.
The lefty has tossed 10.1 scoreless innings over his two postseason starts, allowing just six baserunners – five hits and one walk. The 31-year-old has been good on the road as well this season as Milwaukee has gone 8-2 SU in his 10 away starts, including Game 3 of the NLDS, and he has a 2.29 ERA in those games.
Miley gets the ball for the fourth time this year against the Dodgers and he looks to remain perfect. He pitched six innings without allowing an earned run and gave up four hits in a 6-4 loss at Miller Park vs Los Angeles on July 20. The lefty then made a start at Dodger Stadium in late July when he threw seven scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits in a 1-0 win.
The Louisiana native backed that performance up in Game 2 of the NLCS when he tossed another 5.2 scoreless innings, once again allowing two hits, but the bullpen faltered late and Milwaukee fell 4-3. Miley’s clubs have gone 6-9 SU in his 15 career starts vs LA while he holds a respectable 3.18 ERA.
Kershaw looks to bounce back from His first loss since mid-August
Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA) found his groove in the later stages of the regular season, with the Dodgers winning each of his last eight regular-season starts and going 1-1 in his two postseason outings. During a nine-game winning streak behind Kershaw, including the playoffs, he sported a strong 2.85 ERA with four of those appearances coming at Dodger Stadium. This season, LA went 7-6 SU over the 30-year-old’s 13 home starts and he held a 2.58 ERA with batters having a .211 average.
The Dodgers are 1-2 SU over Kershaw’s three starts vs the Brewers this year, including Game 1 of the NLCS. The Texas native’s lone victory vs Milwaukee came at Dodger Stadium where he tossed six innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits in a 21-5 win.
LA has gone 0-2 SU in Kershaw’s two road starts vs Milwaukee, with the big left-hander giving up a combined five earned runs on 13 hits over just nine innings. When the 30-year-old got the ball for Game 1 of the NLCS at Miller Park, the Brewers tagged him for four earned runs on six hits over three innings.
Kershaw has been criticized for his career postseason play, but at home, he’s been fairly good as the Dodgers are 7-3 SU and he holds a modest 4.60 ERA in his 10 career playoff home starts. However, in home games that aren’t Game 1, LA is 4-1 SU and he sports a 2.30 ERA.
Should you be on the UNDER today?
The last three games of this NLCS have gone UNDER and the entire series has had an average combined score of 6.25 and today’s total opened at 7 runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been on an UNDER roll, with the total going UNDER in seven of their last eight games with an average combined score of 5.5.
Additionally, Miley has made three starts vs the Dodgers this season, including Game 2 of the NLCS, and has yet to allow an earned run over those outings. Although there has been a lot of negative talk around Kershaw when it comes to playoff starts, over his five trips to the mound at Dodger Stadium in matches that aren’t Game 1, LA is 4-1 SU and he has an impressive 2.30 ERA.
My take on Milwaukee vs Los Angeles
The total has opened at 7 runs and I like the UNDER. In addition to the points above, the total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Dodgers’ last 17 games at home vs teams with winning records. Lastly, Miley has done a good job at keeping the Dodgers batters in check, having not allowed an earned run over his three starts this season, and the total has gone UNDER in five of his last six appearances against them overall.
