The Milwaukee Brewers used a six-run sixth inning last night to steal the game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates and hope that offensive explosion will carry over to the second game of their three-game series tonight. The Brew Crew opened as the -115 fave in this matchup and face Pirates’ starter Trevor Williams, who owns 3.06 ERA in 16 starts at home. He limited the Brewers to two hits and no runs over six innings in his last appearance so it should be interesting to see how he matches up with a Milwaukee team that has won 15 of its last 21 games.
- Trevor Williams owns a 2.02 ERA in his last 12 starts.
- The Pirates are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home.
- The UNDER has hit in 11 of the Pirates’ last 12 games with Trevor Williams as the starter.
Brewers vs Pirates Game Center
Pitching Matchup Favors Pirates
Trevor Williams may not be the de facto ace of the Pirates’ pitching staff but since the beginning of July, he may have earned the job. Williams owns a 2.02 ERA in his last 12 starts and has shut out opponents five times in that span. In his last appearance, he kept the Brewers in check by holding Milwaukee to only two hits and no runs in the 3-2 victory. He has faced the Brewers twice this season and has yet to give up a run over 13 innings.
As for the Brewers, they’ll lean on Zach Davies, who is coming off a decent showing vs Pittsburgh when he limited the Pirates to three hits and two runs but took the loss after his offense only managed one run. Davies is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA in eight career starts against Pittsburgh and owns a 5.06 ERA in only three road starts in 2018.
Pirates Continue to Do Well at PNC Park
It may be too little too late for Pittsburgh to make the postseason but it has no problem playing spoiler in the stretch run of the season. The Pirates were riding an eight-game winning streak at PNC Park prior to last night’s loss. One of the reasons for their recent success is their ability to edge teams in close games as Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight games when decided by one run. With the way Trevor Williams has been pitching lately and the fact that they’ve won eight of the last 12 games in this matchup, Pittsburgh looks very appealing to wager on tonight.
The UNDER May Be the Way To Go
The total opened at 8 and I think the UNDER is a great call if you don’t want to bet on a side. Trevor Williams has been an UNDER machine lately as the total has gone UNDER in 11 of his last 12 starts with an average combined score of 5.5 runs per game. When you couple that with the UNDER hitting in 13 of the Pirates last 17 games at home (average combined score 5.7 runs per game), I’m banking on a low-scoring game which is why the UNDER will be my pick tonight.
