He may have been a late addition to the party but Gio Gonzalez will look to win his fourth straight game with the Milwaukee Brewers when they take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Gonzalez was added via trade at the end of August and owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts with Milwaukee. He’ll be dropped into the middle of a divisional matchup with a Cardinals squad that sits three games back of the Brewers in the wild-card standings. The Cards are slight faves in this tilt at -115 with a total of 8.5.
- The Cardinals are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games with Austin Gomber as the starter.
- Milwaukee pitchers have the best ERA in the majors in September at 2.71.
- The UNDER has hit in 9 of Milwaukee’s last 13 games.
Brewers vs Cardinals Game Center
Cardinals Leaning on Another Rookie in Rotation
St. Louis will have lefty Austin Gomber getting the start tonight and he’s one of two rookies who are regulars in the Cardinals rotation (Jack Flaherty). Gomber is making his 11th start since moving to the rotation from the bullpen and he owns a solid 3.71 ERA with the Cardinals going 8-2 SU in those games. Gomber has yet to face the Brewers lineup in his brief career as a starter so getting a read on how he’ll fare tonight is tricky. The bad news for Cardinals backers is that even if he has a strong six-inning outing, the bullpen has been awful since the start of September with a 4.66 ERA in 85 innings, which means that St. Louis could be susceptible to a late-game collapse.
As for the Brew Crew, they’ll count on newest addition Gio Gonzalez to carry them home and continue to provide quality starts. Gio owns a 1.65 ERA in three starts with Milwaukee since coming over from Washington, with the Brewers winning each game and outscoring their opponents 18-7. He faced the Cardinals once this season with the Nationals and got roughed up to the tune of five hits and five earned runs and was chased out of the game after four innings.
Gonzalez had the luxury of having his first three starts in Milwaukee. His road splits are worrisome for bettors looking to back the Brewers tonight as he owns a 5.13 ERA in his last eight starts in road games. Luckily for him, though, Milwaukee’s bullpen is the best in MLB for September with a 2.08 ERA in 91 innings of work.
Milwaukee Pitchers Earning Their Paychecks
Speaking of Milwaukee’s pitchers, they’ve been lights-out this month which is why they sit comfortably in the first wild-card spot with a three-game lead on the Cardinals. Brewers hurlers own a 2.71 ERA in September with the bullpen’s ERA down to 2.08. The rap on Milwaukee this season was its pitchers were decent but the offense is stagnant. Well, this month is a different story as the Brew Crew are averaging just over five runs per game which ranks seventh in MLB in that span. When you factor in that the Brewers are 7-2 SU vs left-handed pitching in their last nine games, the Milwaukee +1.5 runline looks more appealing.
Good Pitching = UNDERS
The total opened at 8.5 and I’m liking the UNDER in this matchup. Milwaukee’s pitching has limited opponents offensively and the UNDER has hit in nine of its last 13 games with an average combined score of 7.3 runs per game. Considering that the UNDER has also hit in 10 of the Brewers’ last 12 games with a closing total of 8.5 or more, it’s shaping up to be a low-scoring affair at New Busch Stadium.
My Pick is…
To take the UNDER. I think this game will be tight with the playoff stakes on the line for the Cardinals, and with the Rockies right on their heels. Milwaukee pitchers are lights-out this month so I can’t see the Cards coming out and putting a ton of runs on the board.
