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Odds To Win the 2018 AL And NL MVP Awards

Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich are big-time betting favorites to take home the AL and NL MVP awards as MLB gets closer to handing out some end-of-season hardware. In odds released this week, Betts is a -425 favorite in the American League, while Yelich is a -230 favorite in the National League.

Joining Betts in the AL voting are Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Indians and Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels. Trout is a perennial candidate even though LA did not have any team success, once again, in 2018. Ramirez piled up some formidable stats in a weak AL Central Division and the Indians got exposed big time in the ALDS vs Houston. 

Over in the National League, breakout star Yelich, who was inexplicably traded away by Derek Jeter (that’s another article for another day) is joined in the voting by Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies and Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs.

Below you can find breakdowns of the key statistical categories for the three nominees from each league. 

American League Candidates

Here is where the candidates sit in terms of statistical performance at the end of the regular season (AL rank in parentheses):

      PlayerOPSHome RunsRBIsBatting AverageSO/BB
Mookie Betts1.078 (2nd)32 (T-9th)80 (T-22nd).346 (1st)91/81
Mike Trout1.088 (1st)39 (T-4th)79 (T-24th).312 (4th)124/122
Jose Ramirez.939 (4th)39 (T-4th)105 (4th).270 (24th)80/106
Odds to win the 2018 American League MVP Award
PlayerOdds
Mookie Betts (BOS)-425
Mike Trout (LAA)+450
Jose Ramirez (CLE)+800

Odds as of November 7 at Bovada

National League Candidates

Statistics at the end of the regular season (NL rank in parentheses):

      PlayerOPSHome RunsRBIsBatting AverageSO/BB
Christian Yelich1.000 (1st)36 (T-3rd)110 (T-2nd).326 (1st)135/68
Javier Baez.881 (12th)34 (T-7th)111 (1st).290 (14th)167/29
Nolan Arenado.935 (2nd)38 (1st)110 (T-2nd).297 (10th)122/73

Here’s the full odds table for National League MVP:

Odds to win the 2018 National League MVP Award
Player Odds
Christian Yelich (MIL) -230
Javier Baez (CHC)+230
Nolan Arenado (COL) +850

Odds as of November 7 at Bovada

Archived Articles

September has brought new favorites for the American League and National League MVP nods. For the majority of the season, Freddie Freeman and Mike Trout have been at the top of the oddsboards but that has changed with less than a month left in the season. Boston’s Mookie Betts is now the odds-on favorite to take home AL MVP honors while Chicago’s Javier Baez is slightly ahead of Freeman on the NL side. 

Injuries have Cost Trout in 2018 

Mike Trout, widely considered the best all-around player in the majors, was the favorite to take home the award for a very average LA Angels squad, but missed three weeks in August and has just nine hits and one home run in 12 games since his return. He’s moved to +450 to win the AL MVP, still slightly ahead of J.D. Martinez and Jose Ramirez at +500. This is more likely to be because of money bet on Trout vs his actual worthiness for the award. 

Could Martinez and Betts Affect Each Others Chances?

There was some discussion that because Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez were working in tandem to propel the Boston Red Sox to one of their best seasons ever that they may be hurting each other’s MVP chances. It’s very hard to argue with what they’ve been doing either individually or in tandem in 2018 and one of them (if not both) should win the MVP award, in my opinion. 

Seeing that recency bias often plays a factor in the voting, let’s break down Betts and Martinez since August 1: Martinez (.376/.459/.650, 7 HR, 27 RBIs) has actually been outplaying Betts (.328/.434/.536, 4 HR, 27 RBIs) since the beginning of August. So with Martinez at +500 it’s a pretty good bet coming down the stretch. 

For the rest of the AL MVP odds, check out the table below:

Odds to win the 2018 American League MVP Award
PlayerOdds
Mookie Betts (BOS)-235
Mike Trout (LAA)+450
J.D. Martinez (BOS)+500
Jose Ramirez (CLE)+500
Jose Altuve (HOU)+1000

Odds as of September 7 at Bovada

New Names on the OddsBoard in the NL

Freddie Freeman was the favorite to win the NL MVP award for the majority of the season, but he has been knocked off the top of the oddsboard here late in the season. While many are touting the Cardinals’ Matt Carpenter as a potential MVP (+325), it’s Chicago’s Javy Baez (+240) who is the favorite this week. 

Christian Yelich, who opened the season off the board, now sits at +800 as the Milwaukee Brewers do their best to keep pace in the NL Central and currently hold down a wild-card spot. 

Top Numbers Since August 1

Paul Goldschmidt leads the list of candidates with a 1.112 OPS since the beginning of August while Yelich has 12 home runs and 28 RBIs over the same stretch. Carpenter has a .945 OPS with nine home runs and 25 RBIs batting leadoff for the Cards. 

Freeman has definitely cooled off as he’s got just three home runs since the beginning of August contributing to a .780 OPS during that stretch. Baez has eight home runs and 22 RBIs to go with a .290 batting average. Notable by his absence from the list: Bryce Harper.

Here’s the full odds table for National League MVP:

Odds to win the 2018 National League MVP Award
Player Odds
Javier Baez (CHC)+240
Freddie Freeman (ATL)+250
Nolan Arenado (COL) +325
Matt Carpenter (STL)+325
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)+700
Jacob deGrom (NYM)+750
Christian Yelich (MIL) +800

Odds as of September 7 at Bovada

Archived Articles

Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman are still the favorites to win the American League and National League MVP awards, but both leagues have seen some changes on the MVP odds board coming out of the All-Star break.

Just two weeks ago, Mike Trout was -350 to take the AL MVP crown. Today at BetOnline those odds are chopped in half to -175. Freddie Freeman remains at +150 to win the NL MVP. While there's value to be had in both leagues, there’s plenty more opportunity for value when betting the NL prop vs the AL.

Trout’s Production Falling Off

Mike Trout had 18 home runs by the end of May but has just seven since, hitting six in June. Trout is nowhere to be found among offensive leaders in July, as he is hitting just .267 with one homer and one RBI. Hardly Trout-esque numbers.

The Angels have played .500 ball in July after a stretch to end June that saw them go 7-13.

Betts, Martinez Keep Raking

At the same time, Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez continue to make their push for AL MVP. Mookie Betts is slashing .407/.500/.695 in July with three home runs and 10 RBI. Betts is widely regarded as one of the top players in baseball, and If you base it solely on this season, he may be THE best player in baseball.

Betts doesn’t have to look far for competition in the MVP race. In fact, just across the clubhouse sits J.D. Martinez who is making Dave Dombrowski look absolutely brilliant with his performance during his first year in a Red Sox uniform. In July, Martinez is slashing .314/.386/.627 with four home runs and 13 RBI.

For me, It’s a race between Betts and Martinez as to who is named AL MVP.

For the rest of the AL MVP odds, check out the table below:

Odds to win the 2018 American League MVP Award
PlayerOdds
Mike Trout (LAA)-150
J.D. Martinez (BOS)+275
Mookie Betts (BOS)+300
Jose Ramirez (CLE)+800
Jose Altuve (HOU)+2000
Francisco Lindor (CLE)+2000
Aaron Judge (NYY)+4000
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)+5000
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)+5000
George Springer (HOU)+5000

Odds as of July 19 at BetOnline

Plenty of Viable NL MVP Bets

Freddie Freeman remains the NL MVP favorite at +150 and has separated himself from Nolan Arenado on the odds table in July. Freeman is hitting .306 with a home run and seven RBIs in 49 at-bats in July.

Arenado, however, is hitting .347 in July with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs. Arenado was +155 to win the MVP in early July, however, he can now be bet on at +300. Excellent value for a guy who keeps getting better as the year goes on.

Goldschmidt, Harper Are the Biggest Movers

The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t get a whole lot of love from national media, but they’re very much a part of the conversation coming out of the break as they sit just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West. A big part of their success has been Paul Goldschmidt who is a consistent performer year after year.

Goldschmidt had 10 home runs in June and hasn’t cooled down in July. He’s slashing .351/.439/.596 with four home runs and 10 RBIs in 53 at-bats. In our last look at the NL MVP odds, he was paying +800. In the two weeks since he’s moved to +450.

Bryce Harper opened the season as the favorite for NL MVP but has had his share of struggles so far in 2018. He had slipped to +1200 in our last rankings but has since moved up to +800. After just two home runs in June, he had three in July before the break and maybe, just maybe is turning the corner. I don’t believe he is though, as his July batting average is just .188 and only .214 on the season. Don't get caught betting on the name and not the numbers.

Here's the full odds table for National League MVP:

Odds to win the 2018 National League MVP Award
Player Odds
Freddie Freeman (ATL)+150
Nolan Arenado (COL) +300
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)+450
Bryce Harper (WAS)+800
Ozzie Albies (ATL)+1000
Javier Baez (CHC)+2000
Charlie Blackmon (COL)+2500
Joey Votto (CIN)+2500
Scooter Gennett (CIN)+2500
Brandon Belt (SF)+3300
Kris Bryant (CHC)+3300
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)+5000
Nick Markakis (ATL)+5000
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)+5000

Odds as of July 19 at BetOnline

Archived Articles

As MLB enters the final stretch before the all-star break, Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman are the favorites to claim the AL and NL MVP awards.

Odds released at Bovada show Trout as the odds-on favorite to win the American League MVP award at -350. Early-season National League betting favorite Bryce Harper has seen his stock fall and now Atlanta’s Freeman and Colorado’s Nolan Arenado are neck and neck at +145 and +155 respectively.

While Trout will have to have a disastrous second half to lose the AL award, it’s very much up for grabs in the senior circuit.

Is Mike Trout REALLY the American Leagues Most Valuable Player?

Mike Trout is widely regarded as the best baseball player on the planet, but is he the best player in the majors this year? The numbers draw that conclusion into question. Of the major offensive statistics tracked by MLB, Trout is first in just one, on-base percentage. He reaches base 45.6 percent of the time he comes to the plate.

Conversely, Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts leads the league in batting average (.338), slugging percentage (.669) and OPS (1.101). His Boston teammate, J.D. Martinez, leads the league in offensive production with 26 home runs and 71 RBIs, first in both categories.

Both Betts (+800) and Martinez (+400) are excellent bets in this category. It stands to reason that their seasons will only continue to look better in statistical categories as the Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. On the other hand, Trout’s Angels are struggling to stay above water and he’s the only one with gills.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to win the 2018 American League MVP award:

Odds to win the 2018 American League MVP Award
PlayerOdds
Mike Trout (LAA)-350
J.D. Martinez (BOS)+400
Mookie Betts (BOS)+800
Jose Altuve (HOU)+1000
Jose Ramirez (CLE)+2000
Francisco Lindor (CLE)+2000
Manny Machado (BAL)+3000
Aaron Judge (NYY)+3000
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)+4000
Carlos Correa (HOU)+4000
George Springer (HOU)+5000

Odds as of July 5 at Bovada

Odds To Win the 2018 National League MVP

While there are two or three realistic options to win the AL MVP, there are many more candidates for the NL crown, even at the midway mark. In fact, a player not even in the hunt right now could jump up and take the award with a strong second half.

Freeman vs Arenado

Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman, who was +600 to win the award just five weeks ago, is currently the betting favorite at +145. This is largely based on his .929 OPS which is third in the NL behind Nolan Arenado (+155) and Eugenio Suarez. Freeman’s odds are interesting because he is 12th in home runs, eighth in RBIs, eighth in batting average and sixth in slugging percentage. Hardly MVP numbers.

That’s why Arenado might be a better bet in this category. The Rockies third baseman is having a career year, batting .312 after 308 at-bats. Arenado leads the NL in home runs (22), RBIs (63), slugging percentage (.601) and OPS (.997). His 3.4 WAR is tied for second in the NL.

Harper Has Fallen Off The Pace

Bryce Harper, who led the NL oddsboard at the beginning of June, has fallen to +1200 to win the NL MVP. Harper slashed .188/.333/.341 and saw his stock fall along with Washington Nationals playoff hopes. 

Here’s a look at the odds to win the 2018 National League MVP award:

Odds to win the 2018 National League MVP Award
Player Odds
Freddie Freeman (ATL)+145
Nolan Arenado (COL) +155
Max Scherzer (WAS)+450
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)+800
Kris Bryant (CHC)+1100
Bryce Harper (WAS)+1200
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)+2500
Matt Kemp (LAD)+2500
Anthony Rendon (WAS)+3000
Joey Votto (CIN)+4000
Nick Markakis (ATL)+5000

Odds as of July 5 at Bovada

Archived Articles

We’re two months into the Major League Baseball season and the usual suspects remain the favorites to win Most Valuable Player for their respective leagues.

Online sportsbook BetOnline has Angels outfielder Mike Trout at the top of its oddsboard at +300 to win his third AL MVP award while Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper is listed at +400 to claim his second NL award.

Here is a breakdown of why Trout and Harper are currently the favorites and who could be in line in their respective leagues to steal the hardware from these two wunderkinds.

For Cy Young betting odds, click here

2018 American League MVP Odds

Any casual baseball fan knows of Mike Trout’s exploits since coming up to the big leagues in 2011. Trout has either won or finished in the top five in MVP voting for six straight seasons and may have had more trophies in his case if Miguel Cabrera hadn’t hit for the triple crown in 2012.

Mike Trout leads MLB with 18 home runs in 54 games this season.

And this season is no different as Trout currently leads the majors with 18 home runs in 54 games while sporting an insane 1.123 OPS. As far as five-tool players go, he is the standard for what teams are looking for and at +300, the value isn’t terrible should bettors want to invest in the 26-year-old slugger.

However, the only worthy candidate who could possibly unseat Trout is Mookie Betts. While his odds (+350) aren’t much better than Trout’s, what he has been doing in the heart of the Red Sox order has been extraordinary. Betts has 17 home runs (second in MLB), 19 doubles (second in MLB) and leads the majors in batting average at .359. He also has the edge vs Trout in stolen bases (13 to 12) while only striking out 25 times to Trout’s 45. When you factor in that the Red Sox have the best record in baseball, this may be Betts’ year to shine.

Bettors should keep checking their sportsbook to see if pitcher Justin Verlander eventually gets added to the oddsboard. Verlander is the last pitcher to win MVP in the American League and is arguably having a better year in 2018 than he did in 2012 when he took the hardware.

AL MVP Winner Odds

Odds as of May 29 at BetOnline

  • Mike Trout (Angels) +300
  • Mookie Betts (Red Sox) +350            
  • Jose Altuve (Astros) +700      
  • Aaron Judge (Yankees) +1000
  • Manny Machado (Orioles) +1200
  • Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) +1400              
  • J.D. Martinez (Red Sox) +1600
  • Andrelton Simmons (Angels) +1600
  • Carlos Correa (Astros) +2000
  • Francisco Lindor (Indians) +2000       
  • Jose Ramirez (Indians) +2000
  • Nick Castellanos (Tigers) +2000        
  • George Springer (Astros) +2000        
  • Shohei Ohtani (Angels) +2000
  • Josh Donaldson (Blue Jays) +2500     
  • Jean Segura (Mariners) +3300           
  • Michael Brantley (Indians) +3300      
  • Jose Abreu (White Sox) +3300

2018 National League MVP Odds

Arguably the best contact hitter in baseball since Tony Gwynn, Bryce Harper has been crowned for superstardom since he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16-year-old. Harper leads the National League with 16 home runs and 46 walks but a glaring .228 batting average makes the +400 odds to win the award quite risky for bettors. Also, when you consider his injury history – he’s only played more than 140 games twice in six seasons – there may be better options, even in his own division.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies at +2000 could be the under-the-radar candidate to win the MVP award with the resurgent Braves. Albies is second in the NL in doubles (15) and homers (14) and has been the main highlight of an Atlanta squad that was pegged prior to the season to win around 72 games. The main knock on Albies is that he currently has six fielding errors this season which ties him for worst among all starting second basemen. But if he continues to stroke at the plate and helps carry Atlanta to a wild card or division title (the Braves lead the NL East standings as of this writing), he could make an enticing option at that price tag.

NL MVP Winner Odds

Odds as of May 29 at BetOnline

  • Bryce Harper (Nationals) +400          
  • Nolan Arenado (Rockies) +400
  • Freddie Freeman (Braves) +600                  
  • Kris Bryant (Cubs) +1000       
  • Scooter Gennett (Reds) +1200
  • Brandon Belt (Giants) +1400           
  • Joey Votto (Reds) +2000 
  • Charlie Blackmon (Rockies) +2000 
  • Nick Markakis (Braves) +2000
  • Ozzie Albies (Braves) +2000  
  • Travis Shaw (Brewers) +2000   
  • Paul Goldschmidt (Diamondbacks) +2500    
  • Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) +2500        
  • Yoenis Cespedes (Mets) +2500
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (Mets) +2500
  • A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks) +2500     
  • Javier Baez (Cubs) +2500       
  • Matt Kemp (Dodgers) +2500 
  • Odubel Herrera (Phillies) +2500
  • Anthony Rizzo (Cubs) +4000  

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