2020 MLB Home Run Leader Odds: Trout and Judge are Top of the Order

The home run in baseball may be the most exciting piece of action in America’s favorite pastime and with home run totals climbing in MLB, bettors need to start doing their homework on which player will lead the big leagues in homers for the 2020 regular season. Naturally, two of the top three favorites are a pair of sluggers from New York while the fave is the reigning American League MVP.

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is the betting favorite at +1000 to lead MLB in home runs after slugging 45 dingers last year in 134 games. Following Trout is New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge at +1100 while New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso is right behind him at +1200. All three are more than capable of hitting 50 dingers and the latter two have both held the record for most home runs by a rookie in a regular season, with Alonso eclipsing Judge’s record in 2019.

After those three, it’s Giancarlo Stanton (+1200), Joey Gallo (+1300), Cody Bellinger (+1300), Yordan Alvarez (+1300), Christian Yelich (+1400), Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1800) and Nolan Arenado (+2000) to round out the top 10 betting options at Bovada.

Since it’s 2020, we’re going to modernize the classic line from 1996 and instead go with “Bettors dig the long ball” and dive into why Trout and Judge are at the top of the oddsboard and identify some long shots worth wagering on.

Should You Bet On Judge?

Entering his fourth full season with the New York Yankees, there’s no question that Aaron Judge is a stud but bettors should be cautious when betting on him for this prop. For starters, even when he set the world on fire in 2017 by hitting 52 home runs in his rookie season, he still finished behind future teammate Giancarlo Stanton in the home run race.

Then there’s the health issue with Judge. In his first year, he played 155 games but over his last two seasons, he’s missed 110 games combined due to oblique issues. He seemed to have corrected that problem by the 2019 postseason but trusting the 28-year-old to play at least 150 games is not a risk I’m willing to take. Especially when he has teammates like Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez or Gio Urshela capable of swatting more dingers than him.

As for Alonso, he would be my pick between the two New Yorkers because of his hard contact rate (fifth in MLB) and he was fourth in MLB in home runs per at-bat. Technically, Mike Trout led MLB in that category but he’s also a bit of an injury risk.

Alonso has all the makings of a star and the fact that he finished the season so strong (11 home runs in September) makes banking on him a safer pick in case he has a slow start. The odds aren’t the best at +1200 with all of the other options on the board but until we see Alonso have an injury or show signs of slowing down, you have to go with his solid, albeit small, track record.

Take A Swing On These Sluggers

Other than Alonso, the two players I think are worth a bet are Giancarlo Stanton at +1200 and JD Martinez at +3000. Yes, I’m taking two AL East players but this is mainly about opportunity and talent and Stanton might be the biggest wild card of the group.

The former richest player in baseball (now second) didn’t even really get on the field in 2019 as his second season in pinstripes was marred by injuries and he was limited to only 18 games. His first year in New York should almost be considered a wash because while he hit 38 homers, he was adjusting to a new league and new pitchers.

It feels like a lifetime ago when he swatted 59 with the Marlins in arguably one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB. With such a short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and the protection up and down the lineup, Stanton could be in line for a huge bounce-back campaign to lead the Yankees to another World Series title.

Then there’s Martinez, who finished second in home runs in MLB in 2018 behind the Athletics’ Khris Davis and has been arguably the best Red Sox hitter since moving to Boston. Martinez has hit 80 home runs over the last two seasons and although Mookie Betts was traded to the Dodgers, it’s not like the Red Sox were a two-player team because they’ve got young studs up and down the batting order.

Martinez is a long shot to win this award but as he demonstrated during his stints with the Tigers and Diamondbacks prior to signing with the Red Sox, the man just knows how to crush the ball, so at +3000, I’m calling my shot like Babe Ruth.

Odds as of March 11 at Bovada